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All Journal Return : Study of Management, Economic and Bussines
Setiawan, Fadlan Ravi
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Analysis Of The Effect Of World Coffee Prices, Exchange Rates, Foreign Direct Investment, Inflation, And Coffee Production On The Value Of Coffee Exports In Indonesia Setiawan, Fadlan Ravi; Parianom, Raden
Return : Study of Management, Economic and Bussines Vol. 5 No. 2 (2026): Return: Study of Management, Economic and Business
Publisher : PT. Publikasiku Academic Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.57096/return.v5i2.433

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of World Coffee Prices, Exchange Rates, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Inflation, and Coffee Production on the Value of Indonesian Coffee Exports during the period 2000–2023. This study uses annual secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Bank Indonesia, the World Bank, CEIC, and the Ministry of Trade. The analysis method used is the Error Correction Model (ECM) to identify the influence of independent variables in the short and long term. The results show that World Coffee Prices do not have a significant effect on coffee export value, and Exchange Rates do not have a significant effect in either the short or long term. The FDI variable shows no significant effect in the short term but has a significant positive effect in the long term, proving that foreign investment has a structural impact on increasing coffee exports. Inflation shows no significant effect in both periods, indicating that changes in domestic price levels do not directly affect the value of coffee exports. Coffee production has no significant effect in the short or long term. Overall, the results of this study indicate that the dynamics of Indonesian coffee exports are more influenced by global market conditions, production quality, long-term investment, and the competitiveness of the national coffee industry.
Co-Authors Raden Parianom