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Zulgani .
Universitas Jambi
Religion Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Social Sciences Other

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Menakar Inklusivitas Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Provinsi Jambi: Analisis Pro-Poor Growth 2023–2024 Angger Halim Ismail; Zulgani .; Cadra Mustika; Siti Hodijah; Nurhayani .
JOURNAL OF SHARIA ECONOMICS Vol. 7 No. 2 (2025): Journal of Sharia Economics
Publisher : Program Studi Ekonomi Syariah, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam, Universitas Al Hikmah Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35896/jse.v7i2.1230

Abstract

This study aims to analyze changes in real poverty in Jambi Province between 2023 and 2024 using the Datt–Ravallion (1992) decomposition approach and Shapley decomposition through the DASP analysis package. The analysis was conducted separately for urban and rural areas to capture spatial differences in poverty dynamics. The data used came from the National Socioeconomic Survey (SUSENAS) with adjustments for inflation and the real poverty line, thereby reflecting actual changes in welfare rather than nominal changes.The results of the study show that the real poverty rate in urban areas of Jambi decreased from 10.19 percent in 2023 to 8.16 percent in 2024, while in rural areas it fell from 6.28 percent to 4.88 percent in the same period. However, Shapley decomposition shows that in both areas, the decline in poverty was due more to the effects of redistribution than to the effects of growth. In urban areas, the growth component (0.0031) actually slightly increased real poverty, while redistribution (–0.0234) contributed significantly to its decline. In rural areas, growth had only a small impact (0.0005), while redistribution (-0.0145) was the main factor in the decline in poverty. This shows that economic growth in Jambi Province is not yet fully inclusive (non-pro-poor growth), as the benefits of growth are still concentrated among the middle and upper classes, while improving income distribution is the key to reducing poverty. This study confirms that the effectiveness of poverty alleviation is determined not only by the rate of economic growth, but also by the quality and distribution of its results. The decomposition-based approach allows for more precise identification of the sources of poverty change and provides an empirical basis for the formulation of more inclusive and contextual development policies at the regional level.
Mengukur Ketimpangan Pembangunan Wilayah Antarprovinsi di Pulau Sumatra dan Jawa Abd Hakim Aflaha; Zulgani .; Rosmeli .; Siti Hodijah; Nurhayani .
JOURNAL OF SHARIA ECONOMICS Vol. 7 No. 2 (2025): Journal of Sharia Economics
Publisher : Program Studi Ekonomi Syariah, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam, Universitas Al Hikmah Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35896/jse.v4i2.1237

Abstract

This study aims to (1) analyse the level of development inequality between provinces in Sumatra and Java. The study uses secondary data obtained from Statistics Indonesia. The results show that North Sumatra, South Sumatra, and Riau Islands are classified as having high inequality, while Aceh, Riau, Jambi, and Bengkulu are classified as having moderate inequality, and West Sumatra, Lampung, and Bangka Belitung Islands are classified as having low inequality. In general, inequality on the island of Sumatra is classified as moderate, while on the island of Java it is classified as high due to economic concentration in industrial areas such as Jakarta and East Java
Prediksi Kemiskinan Ekstrem di Provinsi Jambi Berbasis Data Mikro SUSENAS: Perbandingan Regresi Logistik, Random Forest, dan XGBoost serta Analisis Determinan Ari Hidayat; Zulgani .; Ridwansyah .; Siti Hodijah; Nurhayani .
JOURNAL OF SHARIA ECONOMICS Vol. 7 No. 2 (2025): Journal of Sharia Economics
Publisher : Program Studi Ekonomi Syariah, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam, Universitas Al Hikmah Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35896/jse.v4i1.1261

Abstract

Extreme poverty is the most severe form of poverty, characterized by a household's inability to meet basic needs and tends to persist despite ongoing social program interventions. In Jambi Province, poverty trends are fluctuating and influenced by macroeconomic dynamics and the agricultural sector; while extreme poverty indicators show an aggregate decline, inequality remains between districts/cities. This study aims to: (1) analyze socioeconomic factors influencing the extreme poverty status of households in Jambi Province, (2) compare the performance of prediction models using econometric approaches (logistic regression) and machine learning (Random Forest and XGBoost), and (3) examine differences in the determinants of extreme poverty between agricultural and non-agricultural households. The data used are SUSENAS microdata for the 2020–2024 period using a pooling approach (cross-section and time series) for all districts/cities in Jambi Province. Extreme poverty status is defined based on the international threshold of USD 2.15 PPP or national adjustment (TNP2K) in the relevant year. Modeling was performed by dividing the training data into 80% and 20% test data, conducting feature selection, model training, and hyperparameter tuning, as well as evaluation based on the confusion matrix and AUC–ROC. In addition to performance evaluation, this study emphasized sectoral comparative analysis by training the model separately on agricultural and non-agricultural subsamples to identify dominant determinants that are both universal and sector-specific.
Co-Authors Abd Hakim Aflaha Angger Halim Ismail Ari Hidayat Cadra Mustika Nurhayani . Ridwansyah . Rosmeli . Siti Hodijah