Scientific Prediction of the Covid-19 Pandemic and What Should Society Do?

Iche Andriyani Liberty (Department of Public Health and Community Medicine Faculty of Medicine Universitas Sriwijaya, Palembang, Indonesia)
Mariatul Fadilah (Department of Public Health and Community Medicine Faculty of Medicine Universitas Sriwijaya, Palembang, Indonesia)
Hari Kusnanto Josef (Department of Family Medicine and Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia)

Review of Primary Care Practice and Education (Kajian Praktik dan Pendidikan Layanan Primer)
Vol 3, No 3 (2020): September

What is the scientific prediction for the Covid-19 pandemic? Currently, as of April 8, the world’s confirmed cases have over 1.2 million, the death of more than 72 thousand. For Indonesia,  today  2,738  confirmed cases,  221  deaths,  and those who recovered 204.1-3. The update on April 8 today, WHO itself estimates that the Covid-19 Contagion Rate is 1.4 to 2.5. This will form the basis of predictive modeling. Several studies conducted show that currently the basic reproduction number or  R0  of  Covid-19  is higher than SARS.  Initially in the range of  2-3  or an average of  2.5, currently R0 is 1.4 - 6.9. This is what will form the basis of modeling. R0 or the basic reproduction number shows how many people a person can become infected with.  If the R0 is more than 1, we are in an epidemic status as it is today, R0 = 1 endemic, and our R0 is less than 1 we have eradicated. R0 itself consists of three components, namely p: transmission, c: number of contact, and D which is the duration of the infection itself. These calculations are the main points in modeling.