Jurnal Arjuna : Publikasi Ilmu Pendidikan, Bahasa dan Matematika
Vol. 2 No. 2 (2024): April : Jurnal Arjuna : Publikasi Ilmu Pendidikan, Bahasa dan Matematika

Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (Arima) dalam Memprediksi Jumlah Penumpang Kereta Api Kota Binjai

Queenty Dhea Haura Br Sitepu (Unknown)
Sutarman Sutarman (Unknown)
Machrani Adi Putri Siregar (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
25 Jan 2024

Abstract

The importance of land transportation services such as PT. Indonesian Railways are increasing among the public lately, especially in Binjai City. Therefore, this study aims to try to model and forecast the number of passengers of PT. Indonesian Railways in the region. In this study, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used which has proven effective. For research in Binjai City, the ARIMA(1,1,1) model showed good results. The data used in this study includes the number of passengers of PT. Binjai City Railway from January 2022 to December 2022. The forecasting accuracy rate was evaluated using MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error), which reached a value of 4.437%. This figure shows that forecasting has an error rate of less than 10%, so it can be categorized as excellent forecasting. The results of this study provide valuable insights for PT. Binjai City Railway to plan resources and optimize their passenger services. However, further research can still be done to improve forecasting methods and expand the reach of research to other regions.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

Arjuna

Publisher

Subject

Education Health Professions Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Mathematics Social Sciences

Description

Jurnal ini adalah Jurnal Pendidikan bahasa dan Sastra yang bersifat peer-review dan terbuka. Bidang kajian dalam jurnal ini termasuk sub rumpun Ilmu Pendidikan Ilmu Sosial, Bahasa dan Sastra, Olahraga dan Kesehatan, Matematika dan MIPA, Teknologi dan Kejuruaan, Ilmu Pendidikan dan ...