Multica Science and Technology
Vol 4 No 2 (2024): Multica Science and Technology

Prediction of Shrimp Sales Using the ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) Method at UD Udang Makmur Peureulak

Veri Ilhadi (Unknown)
Muliana Muliana (Unknown)
Zulfia , Anni (Unknown)
Ulya, Athiyatul (Unknown)
Sahputra , Ilham (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 Oct 2024

Abstract

UD. Udang Makmur is a shrimp farming business that often faces challenges in accurately predicting sales stock due to reliance on manual forecasting methods. This study aims to develop a web-based sales prediction application utilizing the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. The application uses daily sales data from January to December 2023 for analysis. The results indicate that the ARIMA (2,1,1) model delivers accurate predictions, achieving a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.264295. Forecasts for the next 24 periods demonstrate a stable projection, with predicted values converging around 2.5 and a narrow 95% confidence interval. These findings highlight the model's reliability and low uncertainty for the forecasted time frame. The application was successfully tested using the Black-Box method, confirming its functionality and effectiveness in supporting sales predictions.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

mst

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Energy Library & Information Science Physics

Description

Focus and Scope The journal covers all aspects of science and technology, that is: Science: Bioscience & Biotechnology; Chemistry; Food Technology; Applied Biosciences and Bioengineering; Environmental; Health Science; Mathematics; Statistics; Applied Physics; Biology; Pharmaceutical Science; etc. ...