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All Journal Multica Science and Technology Serambi Engineering
Sahputra , Ilham
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Computer Science & IT Earth & Planetary Sciences Energy Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Library & Information Science Physics

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Prediction of Shrimp Sales Using the ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) Method at UD Udang Makmur Peureulak Veri Ilhadi; Muliana Muliana; Zulfia , Anni; Ulya, Athiyatul; Sahputra , Ilham
Multica Science and Technology Vol 4 No 2 (2024): Multica Science and Technology
Publisher : Universitas Mulia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47002/mst.v4i2.978

Abstract

UD. Udang Makmur is a shrimp farming business that often faces challenges in accurately predicting sales stock due to reliance on manual forecasting methods. This study aims to develop a web-based sales prediction application utilizing the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. The application uses daily sales data from January to December 2023 for analysis. The results indicate that the ARIMA (2,1,1) model delivers accurate predictions, achieving a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.264295. Forecasts for the next 24 periods demonstrate a stable projection, with predicted values converging around 2.5 and a narrow 95% confidence interval. These findings highlight the model's reliability and low uncertainty for the forecasted time frame. The application was successfully tested using the Black-Box method, confirming its functionality and effectiveness in supporting sales predictions.
Analisis Energi Surya - Angin Hibrida untuk Mendukung Sistem Pengeringan Ikan Berbasis Energi Terbarukan Nasution, Fakhruddin Ahmad; Multazam, Teuku; Sahputra , Ilham
Jurnal Serambi Engineering Vol. 10 No. 4 (2025): Oktober 2025
Publisher : Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Serambi Mekkah

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Abstract

This study analyzes the potential and optimization of a solar–wind hybrid power generation system to support sustainable anchovy drying for small-scale fishermen in Ujong Blang Village, Lhokseumawe, Aceh. Field data on wind speed and air temperature were collected on September 20–21, 2025. The measurements indicate that solar energy has a more dominant contribution with an estimated production of 3.7 kWh/kWp·day, while wind energy provides only around 0.37 kWh/m²·day at an average speed of 2.93–5.29 m/s. To meet the energy demand of a 50 kg/hour fish dryer (3.8 kW), a PV capacity of 4.1 kWp is required for 4 hours of operation or 8.3 kWp for 8 hours. Meanwhile, wind energy requires relatively large turbine swept areas, making it more suitable as a complementary source. The optimal hybrid configuration positions solar PV as the primary source (70–80%), wind turbines as a secondary source (20–30%), and batteries for energy storage. The results demonstrate that a solar–wind hybrid system can enhance the reliability of renewable energy supply efficiently and sustainably to support fish drying operations.
Co-Authors Fakhruddin Ahmad Nasution Muliana Muliana Teuku Multazam Ulya, Athiyatul Veri Ilhadi Zulfia , Anni