<![CDATA[Rice is the main commodity that supports national food security and fulfills the consumption needs of most of the Indonesian population. Rice production faces many persistent problems, such as yield fluctuations, pest and disease attacks, and environmental changes. One example is the conversion of agricultural areas into residential and industrial areas, which causes rice production to decline. The purpose of this research is to use the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) approach to develop a forecasting model of Pariaman City’s rice production and forecast the results for 2024 in a monthly period. This applied research uses secondary data obtained from the official website of the Pariaman City Statistics Agency. The best forecasting model results are achieved with the ARMA (1,2) model which produces the smallest MSE value of 96.6965. The model form is $$Y_t = 1.00048Y_{t-1} + \varepsilon_t + 0.443\varepsilon_{t-1} + 0.493\varepsilon_{t-2}$$.]]>
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