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All Journal BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Journal of Mathematics UNP
Khairani, Yasyfin Ikrima
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Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

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ASSESSING UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IN TANAH DATAR REGENCY: INSIGHTS FROM SMALL AREA ESTIMATION Winanda, Rara Sandhy; Khairani, Yasyfin Ikrima; Permana, Fajar Wisga
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 19 No 2 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss2pp1433-1444

Abstract

Unemployment is a significant issue in Indonesia's labor market. The unemployment rate is measured by the Open Unemployment Rate (OUR) through the National Labor Force Survey (SAKERNAS) conducted by BPS. In 2022, the OUR in Tanah Datar District reached its highest level in the past fifteen years. This rise in unemployment contrasts with the declining poverty rate, unlike other districts/cities in West Sumatra. To address the increasing unemployment, detailed information at the smallest administrative level is necessary. However, because the limited sample size in SAKERNAS does not allow for direct estimation of the OUR with sufficient accuracy, this study aims to overcome this limitation by estimating the OUR at the subdistrict level using indirect estimation through Small Area Estimation (SAE). The SAE method applied is Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (EBLUP), using the Restricted Maximum Likelihood (REML) estimation model. This research uses secondary data obtained from the National Labor Force Survey (SAKERNAS) of Tanah Datar Regency for the August 2022 period and the Village Potential data (PODES) of Tanah Datar Regency in 2021. The findings indicate that three subdistricts—Pariangan, Lintau Buo Utara, and Padang Ganting—have higher OUR values than Tanah Datar Regency in 2022, with rates of 6.00%, 6.01%, and 11.03%, respectively. The factor that influences the high OUR in these sub-districts is the variable percentage of the male population, which in this model has a large contribution to the calculation of OUR. The indirect estimations using EBLUP are deemed reliable, as the RSE value is below 25%. Therefore, the EBLUP indirect estimation results for OUR at the subdistrict level in Tanah Datar Regency can guide local government efforts to take targeted actions to reduce unemployment, especially in areas with high OUR.
Peramalan Hasil Produksi Padi di Kota Pariaman Menggunakan Metode Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Khairani, Yasyfin Ikrima; Helma, Helma; Winanda, Rara Sandhy
Journal of Mathematics UNP Vol 10, No 1 (2025): Journal Of Mathematics UNP
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NEGERI PADANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/unpjomath.v10i1.16934

Abstract

Rice is the main commodity that supports national food security and fulfills the consumption needs of most of the Indonesian population. Rice production faces many persistent problems, such as yield fluctuations, pest and disease attacks, and environmental changes. One example is the conversion of agricultural areas into residential and industrial areas, which causes rice production to decline. The purpose of this research is to use the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) approach to develop a forecasting model of Pariaman City’s rice production and forecast the results for 2024 in a monthly period. This applied research uses secondary data obtained from the official website of the Pariaman City Statistics Agency. The best forecasting model results are achieved with the ARMA (1,2) model which produces the smallest MSE value of 96.6965. The model form is $$Y_t = 1.00048Y_{t-1} + \varepsilon_t + 0.443\varepsilon_{t-1} + 0.493\varepsilon_{t-2}$$.
Co-Authors Helma Helma Permana, Fajar Wisga Rara Sandhy Winanda