Desimal: Jurnal Matematika
Vol. 7 No. 2 (2024): Desimal: Jurnal Matematika

Markovian modelling of transmission of tuberculosis cases in Indonesia

Anggraeni, Andini Setyo (Unknown)
Jabnabillah, Faradiba (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Aug 2024

Abstract

Indonesia is ranked as the second highest contributor to global cases of Tuberculosis (TB), which requires a focused approach to the transmission of tuberculosis within the country. This research aims to model and analyze the spread of TB cases in Indonesia. This research uses a discrete-time Markov chain with S-I-T-R-D states and Maximum Likelihood Estimation to model the transmission of TB cases. This research provides innovation in modeling the transmission of TB cases with a more complex model by including the possibility of relapse and treatment outcomes using historical data of TB cases in Indonesia. This research produces a matrix of transition probabilities for each state, first transition probabilities, steady state states, expected times for each transition and lifetime.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

desimal

Publisher

Subject

Education Mathematics Social Sciences

Description

Desimal: Jurnal Matematika, particularly focuses on the main issues in the development of the sciences of mathematics education, mathematics education, and applied mathematics. Desimal: Jurnal Matematika published three times a year, the period from January to April, May to Augustus, and September ...