<![CDATA[Research Originality: This study examines whether sukuk serves as a substitute or complement to banks, offering new insights into the resilience and vulnerability of Indonesia’s dual banking system under macroeconomic shocks. Research Objectives: To examine the evolving sukuk–bank performance relationship before and after the 2020 global recession, and its implications for financial stability. Research Methods: Quarterly data (2015–2023) from 6 Islamic and 15 conventional banks are analyzed using a dynamic panel System GMM model to address endogeneity and bank-specific heterogeneity. Empirical Results: Prior to the crisis, the development of the sukuk market significantly reduced the profitability of Islamic banks, indicating a substitution effect. After the crisis, the negative impact on Islamic banks weakened, suggesting partial complementarity. Inflation widened margins, money supply reduced them, and GDP growth benefited only conventional banks. Implications: Aligning sukuk market growth with banking strategies can strengthen resilience, enhance competitiveness, and support stability in dual banking systems.]]>
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