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Sali, Najeeb Razul A
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Substitution or Complementarity? Sukuk–Bank Performance Resilience in Indonesia’s Dual Banking System Nofrianto, Nofrianto; Zaenal, Muhammad Hasbi; Khairunnisa, Dini Anggreini; Sali, Najeeb Razul A
Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Vol. 14 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Faculty of Economic and Business, Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v14i2.46415

Abstract

Research Originality: This study examines whether sukuk serves as a substitute or complement to banks, offering new insights into the resilience and vulnerability of Indonesia’s dual banking system under macroeconomic shocks. Research Objectives: To examine the evolving sukuk–bank performance relationship before and after the 2020 global recession, and its implications for financial stability. Research Methods: Quarterly data (2015–2023) from 6 Islamic and 15 conventional banks are analyzed using a dynamic panel System GMM model to address endogeneity and bank-specific heterogeneity. Empirical Results: Prior to the crisis, the development of the sukuk market significantly reduced the profitability of Islamic banks, indicating a substitution effect. After the crisis, the negative impact on Islamic banks weakened, suggesting partial complementarity. Inflation widened margins, money supply reduced them, and GDP growth benefited only conventional banks. Implications: Aligning sukuk market growth with banking strategies can strengthen resilience, enhance competitiveness, and support stability in dual banking systems. JEL Classification: G21, G23, E44, E52 How to Cite:Nofrianto., Zaenal, M. H., Khairunnisa, D. A., & Sali, N. R. A. (2025). Substitution or Complementarity? Sukuk-Bank Performance Resilience in Indonesia’s Dual Banking System. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 14(2), 563-xx. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v14i2.46415.
Co-Authors Khairunnisa, Dini Anggreini Muhammad Hasbi Zaenal, Muhammad Hasbi Nofrianto Nofrianto