BULETIN FISIKA
Vol. 27 No. 1 (2026): BULETIN FISIKA

Machine Learning to Predict Climate Change in Coastal Areas of Indonesia

Huriyatul Firdausi (Universitas Sriwijaya)
Melly Ariska (Universitas Sriwijaya)
Sardianto Marcos Siahaan (Universitas Sriwijaya)
Hamdi Akhsan (Universitas Sriwijaya)
Yenny Anwar (Universitas Sriwijaya)
Iin Seprina (Universitas Sriwijaya)
Taufiq Taufiq (Universitas Sriwijaya)



Article Info

Publish Date
02 Dec 2025

Abstract

Indonesia's coastal regions face significant threats from climate change, including rainfall uncertainty, rising temperatures, and sea level rise. This study aims to explore the potential of machine learning algorithms in predicting climate parameter changes in the coastal areas of Minangkabau, Pesawaran, and Maritim Panjang. Daily climatological data obtained from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) were used as the basis for model training. Three primary algorithms were tested Random Forest, XGBoost, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) selected for their capability to handle complex and temporal data. The research methodology included data preprocessing, model training, cross-validation, and predictive performance evaluation using metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and the coefficient of determination (R²). Preliminary results show that LSTM excels in time series prediction, while XGBoost offers a good balance between speed and accuracy. These findings indicate that machine learning-based approaches have strong potential as decision-support tools for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning in Indonesia’s coastal regions.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

buletinfisika

Publisher

Subject

Astronomy Energy Materials Science & Nanotechnology Medicine & Pharmacology Physics

Description

Aims and Scope Aims The Journal aims to promote the theory and application in the field of physics and to encourage a vigorous dialogue among scholars and researchers worldwide. It presents original research articles, letters, and review articles, and publishes the latest achievements and ...