Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences
Vol. 8 No. 5 (2025): Open Access Indonesia Journal of Social Sciences

Digital Cynicism and the Eroding Social Contract: A Longitudinal Structural Equation Modeling Analysis of Youth Political Trust and State-Led Counter-Narratives in Indonesia (2019–2025)

Aman Suparman (Unknown)
Mary-Jane Wood (Unknown)
Omar Alieva (Unknown)
Henny Kesuma (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
29 Jan 2026

Abstract

The 2019 #ReformasiDikorupsi movement served as a watershed moment for Indonesian youth activism. However, the subsequent six years have witnessed a transition from active mobilization to a state of pervasive digital cynicism. This study investigates the longitudinal impact of state-led counter-narratives on the political trust of Gen Z and Millennials. Utilizing a longitudinal panel design, we analyzed a cohort of 2,400 respondents across 34 Indonesian provinces from 2019 to 2025. We employed Structural Equation Modeling to test the mediating role of digital cynicism between exposure to state-led counter-narratives and institutional trust. Findings indicate that while state counter-narratives initially neutralized protest sentiment, they triggered a significant long-term surge in digital cynicism (beta = 0.48, p < 0.001). This cynicism acts as a primary barrier to formal political engagement, leading to a trust deficit that has deepened by 32 percent since 2019. The study concludes that state efforts to manage online dissent through top-down narratives have paradoxically undermined democratic legitimacy among the youth. The shift from #ReformasiDikorupsi to digital cynicism represents a fundamental decoupling of the youth from the state’s democratic promises.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

oaijss

Publisher

Subject

Humanities Social Sciences

Description

OAIJSS invites manuscripts in the various topics including : 1. Public Policy and Administration 2. Sociology 3. Communication Science 4. International ...