Optimized Regional Development Planning for Samosir Tourism: Integrating Seasonal Accommodation Occupancy and Sustainable MSME Empowerment

Dina Rosari (Management Hospitality, DIPA Politeknik Pariwisata Medan, Indonesia)
Ngatemin Ngatemin (Management Hospitality, DIPA Politeknik Pariwisata Medan, Indonesia)
Dewi Yanti (Management Hospitality, DIPA Politeknik Pariwisata Medan, Indonesia)
Bejo Mulyadi (Management Hospitality, DIPA Politeknik Pariwisata Medan, Indonesia)

Mamangan Social Science Journal
Vol 15, No 1 (2026): Jurnal Ilmu Sosial Mamangan Accredited 2 (SK Dirjen Ristek Dikti No. 0173/C3/DT

This study examines tourism seasonality's impact on accommodation occupancy and MSME performance in Samosir Regency, Lake Toba UNESCO Global Geopark, using Structural Equation Modeling-Partial Least Squares (SEM-PLS) with a complete census of 80 stakeholders. Results confirm seasonality strongly predicts occupancy fluctuations (β=0.69, p<0.001, R²=0.48), while bidirectional occupancy-MSME linkages explain 41% of MSME revenue instability (β=0.46/0.31, p<0.001/0.002). Stakeholder integration emerges as the dominant driver of regional planning effectiveness (β=0.51, p<0.001), alongside occupancy (β=0.24) and MSME inputs (β=0.33), accounting for 63% of planning variance (SRMR=0.067). Findings provide an empirical framework for optimized planning, integrating seasonality mitigation, MSME empowerment, and inclusive governance to achieve sustainable tourism development in Indonesia's super-priority destinations.