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All Journal Mamangan Social Science Journal
Ngatemin Ngatemin
Management Hospitality, DIPA Politeknik Pariwisata Medan, Indonesia
Humanities Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences

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Optimized Regional Development Planning for Samosir Tourism: Integrating Seasonal Accommodation Occupancy and Sustainable MSME Empowerment Dina Rosari; Ngatemin Ngatemin; Dewi Yanti; Bejo Mulyadi
Jurnal Mamangan Vol 15, No 1 (2026): Jurnal Ilmu Sosial Mamangan Accredited 2 (SK Dirjen Ristek Dikti No. 0173/C3/DT
Publisher : LPPM Universitas PGRI Sumatera Barat

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22202/mamangan.v15i1.11474

Abstract

This study examines tourism seasonality's impact on accommodation occupancy and MSME performance in Samosir Regency, Lake Toba UNESCO Global Geopark, using Structural Equation Modeling-Partial Least Squares (SEM-PLS) with a complete census of 80 stakeholders. Results confirm seasonality strongly predicts occupancy fluctuations (β=0.69, p<0.001, R²=0.48), while bidirectional occupancy-MSME linkages explain 41% of MSME revenue instability (β=0.46/0.31, p<0.001/0.002). Stakeholder integration emerges as the dominant driver of regional planning effectiveness (β=0.51, p<0.001), alongside occupancy (β=0.24) and MSME inputs (β=0.33), accounting for 63% of planning variance (SRMR=0.067). Findings provide an empirical framework for optimized planning, integrating seasonality mitigation, MSME empowerment, and inclusive governance to achieve sustainable tourism development in Indonesia's super-priority destinations.
Co-Authors Bejo Mulyadi Dewi Yanti Rosari, Dina