<![CDATA[Tourism villages contribute to sustainable rural development, yet their long-term viability depends on the ability of local stakeholders to identify key drivers and formulate adaptive strategies. This study aims to identify the principal factors influencing the sustainability of Sangeh Tourism Village, Bali, and to develop future strategic scenarios through an integrated MICMAC and SMIC-Prob approach. An exploratory sequential mixed-methods design was employed using interviews, expert questionnaires, and an FGD involving 12 stakeholders from the village government, tourism village management, and tourism workforce. The MICMAC analysis identified promotion and marketing, government funding, stakeholder human resources, and natural tourism attractions as the principal driving variables. Consistent with these findings, the SMIC-Prob analysis showed that tourism attraction development (0.573) and promotion and marketing (0.537) were the most probable strategic priorities, supporting a phased sustainable tourism development strategy. The study recommends a phased strategy emphasizing conservation-based attraction enhancement, targeted promotion, stakeholder capacity building, infrastructure support, and gradual digital financial governance to strengthen competitiveness, community benefits, and long-term sustainability.]]>
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