DINAMIKA HARGA, KONSUMSI, DAN NILAI IMPOR BERAS TERHADAP PRODUKSI PADI DI INDONESIA

Kania Putri (Universitas Malikussaleh)
Noviami Trisniarti (Universitas Malikussaleh)
Asnawi (Universitas Malikussaleh)
Zata Hasyyati (Universitas Malikussaleh)

Jurnal Ekonomi Pertanian Unimal
Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): JURNAL EKONOMI PERTANIAN UNIMAL

his study aims to analyze the dynamics of rice prices, rice consumption per capita, and the value of rice imports on rice production in Indonesia. The data used in this study is annual time series data for 35 years, from 1990 to 2024. The analysis used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The results of the study show that in the short term, the price of rice in the current period and the third period has a significant effect on rice production, while the price of rice in the first and second periods does not have a significant effect. Per capita rice consumption in the current period has a significant effect on rice production. Meanwhile, the value of rice imports in the current period, the first and second periods had a significant effect, while the third period did not have a significant effect on rice production. In the long term, rice prices, rice consumption per capita, and the value of rice imports have a significant effect on rice production in Indonesia.