<![CDATA[Balikpapan Bay, situated in the rapidly evolving Nusantara Capital Region, is significantly susceptible to alterations in freshwater influx resulting from dam construction and the reduction of river discharge. This study utilizes the three-dimensional baroclinic Hamburg Shelf Ocean Model (HAMSOM) to simulate hydrodynamics, temperature, and salinity across various river discharge scenarios. Model validation shows that the model is good enough at capturing the bay's physical processes. The RMSE values are 0.1 m for sea level, 0.1 m/s for current speed, 0.67 psu for salinity, and 1.41°C for temperature. The correlation coefficients are between 0.85 and 0.99. Then, the 50% decrease in discharge raises salinity levels throughout the estuaries. Then a 95% decrease of river discharge leads to long-lasting saline intrusion levels of 34–36 psu. This effect was observed even in areas that are typically dominated by freshwater. The spatial analysis shows that when there is less flow, the system changes to a state where tides are more dominated and marine intrusion is more common. As a result, the influence of freshwater diminishes. These results show how important it is to keep the river discharge at the right level to keep the estuarine balance. They also show how important it is to manage water resources in a way that considers rapid regional growth for environmental sustainability.]]>
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