Indonesian Journal of Mathematics and Applications
Vol. 4 No. 2 (2026): Indonesian Journal of Mathematics and Applications

Dynamical Analysis and Data-Driven Parameter Estimation of a Multi-Stage Toyota Manufacturing System Using Machine Learning

Habibah, Ummu (Unknown)
Hidayat, Fatah (Unknown)
Ardiana, Dita (Unknown)
Andawaningtyas, Kwardiniya (Unknown)
Karim, Corina (Unknown)
Marjono (Unknown)
Maulana, Avin (Unknown)
Kurniawaty, Mila (Unknown)
Muthuvalu, Mohana Sundaram (Unknown)
Gunaningtyas, Almira Jorydanta (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Sep 2026

Abstract

Efficient buffering and material flow synchronization are foundational to maintaining high-volume throughput in modern automotive assembly networks, such as the Toyota Production System (TPS). However, real-time control utility optimization and predictive scheduling are often constrained by hidden or variable workshop capacities (μᵢ). This paper proposes a comprehensive data-driven parameter estimation and continuous-time dynamical analysis framework to model a multi-stage automotive manufacturing queueing network under Just-In-Time (JIT) control policies. The plant is formalized using a continuous state-space model governed by ordinary differential equations (ODEs), incorporating a non-linear minimum (min) operator at multi-input junctions to capture the vehicle-engine synchronization (marriage process). Local stability analysis rigorously establishes that the network converges asymptotically toward a unique steady-state equilibrium vector X̄, behaving as a globally attractive Stable Node capable of neutralizing severe initial line imbalances. To make the model adaptive to factory floor environments, a machine learning least-squares optimization loop backed by MATLAB’s adaptive numerical solvers is deployed to identify hidden processing capacities from noisy, discrete work-in-progress (WIP) time-series data. Goodness-of-fit validations against synthetic datasets contaminated with 2% Gaussian white noise demonstrate exceptional tracking fidelity, yielding minimal residual thresholds (RMSE ≤ 0.029). The results confirm that integrating continuous-time differential equations with data-driven optimization establishes a robust, highly scalable, and structurally stable digital twin framework for real-time manufacturing system calibration and throughput optimization.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ijma

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Education Mathematics Other

Description

The Indonesian Journal of Mathematics and Applications is a journal managed by Universitas Brawijaya, Malang, Indonesia, that is published twice a year (in March and September). IJMA is devoted to research articles of the highest quality in all areas of mathematics and its applications, statistics, ...