Mathematical problem-solving ability is one of the essential competencies that students need to develop. However, students’ mathematical problem-solving ability remains relatively low, particularly in probability topics. One factor that is assumed to influence this ability is students’ self-efficacy. This study aimed to analyze students’ mathematical problem-solving ability based on their levels of self-efficacy in probability material. This study employed a descriptive qualitative approach involving 25 ninth-grade students at SMP Islam Karawang. The research instruments consisted of a self-efficacy questionnaire and a mathematical problem-solving test comprising three essay questions. The results showed that 4 students had high self-efficacy, 18 had moderate self-efficacy, and 3 had low self-efficacy. The analysis revealed that students across all three self-efficacy categories had not yet optimally fulfilled all indicators of mathematical problem-solving ability. Nevertheless, students with high self-efficacy demonstrated relatively better problem-solving ability than students with moderate and low self-efficacy. These findings indicate that self-efficacy plays a role in supporting students’ mathematical problem-solving ability, but it is not the only factor determining students’ success in solving mathematical problems.
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