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Jurnal Varian
Published by Universitas Bumigora
ISSN : -     EISSN : 25812017     DOI : https://doi.org/10.30812/varian
Core Subject : Economy, Science, Education, Social,
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Mathematics Social Sciences Other
Jurnal Varian adalah salah satu Jurnal Ilmiah yang terdapat di Universitas Bumigora. Jurnal ini bertujuan untuk memberikan wadah atau sarana publikasi bagi para dosen, peneliti dan praktisi baik di lingkungan internal maupun eksternal Universitas Bumigora Mataram. Jurnal ini terbit 2 (dua) kali dalam 1 tahun pada periode Genap (April) dan Ganjil (Oktober). Jurnal Varian fokus memuat publikasi pada Bidang Matematika dan Statistika.
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
Articles 178 Documents
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Modelling Crop Insurance Based on Weather Index Using The Homotopy Analysis for American Put Option Agus Sofian Eka Hidayat; Monica Sandi Afa; Dedi Kurniawan
Jurnal Varian Vol 4 No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v4i2.993

Abstract

The crop insurance in Indonesia (AUTP) is much focused on the area impacted by flood, drought, and pest attack. The complication of the procedure to claim the loss must follow several conditions. The different approaches in the insurance sector, using weather index can be taken into consideration to produce a variety of insurance products. This insurance product used the American put option with the primary asset is the rainfall and the cumulative rainfall to exercise the claim, considering the optimal execution limit. The homotopic analysis is used to determine the valuation of the American put option, which also becomes the insurance premium. The case study is focused on areas experiencing a drought so that insurance claims can be exercise when the rainfall index value is below a predetermined limit. Considering the normality of the rainfall data, the calculation of insurance premium was done for the first growing season. The insurance premium is varies based on the optimal execution limit, while the calculation of profit is based on the optimum limit exercise and the minimum rainfall for the growing season, and its different depended on insurance claim acceptance limits.
Spline and Kernel Mixed Nonparametric Regression for Malnourished Children Model in West Nusa Tenggara Muhammad Sopian Sauri; Mustika Hadijati; Nurul Fitriyani
Jurnal Varian Vol 4 No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v4i2.1003

Abstract

Health sector development is essential to improve human life quality, especially in West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) Province. Based on data from the NTB Provincial Health Office from 2011 to 2016, children under five suffering from malnutrition continued to increase, caused by several factors that affected the incident. Therefore, appropriate analysis is needed to model children who suffer from malnutrition in NTB Province in 2016, consisting of 10 districts based on the variables that influence it. The analysis in this study was carried out using a nonparametric regression mixed-model spline truncated and kernel. The estimation of the nonparametric regression curve depends on the optimal knot points and bandwidths parameter. Therefore, in determining the optimal knot points and bandwidths obtained from Generalized Cross-Validation (GCV). Based on the analysis that has been done, we obtained a nonparametric regression mixed-model spline truncated and kernel optimal knot points, such as for each variable and optimum bandwidths, such as and , with the value of GCV. The mixed model acquired has a good model by considering the values of and MSE. Besides, the MAPE value indicated a high degree of accuracy, so that the model obtained has an excellent forecast.
Determining Bullying Text Classification Using Naive Bayes Classification on Social Media Ade Clinton Sitepu; Wanayumini Wanayumini; Zakarias Situmorang
Jurnal Varian Vol 4 No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v4i2.1086

Abstract

Cyber-bullying includes repeated acts with the aim of scaring, angering, or embarrassing those who are targeted Cyber-bullying is happening along with the rapid development of technology and social media in society. The media and users need to filter out bully comments because they can indirectly affect the mental psychology that reads them especially directly aimed at that person. By utilizing information mining, the system is expected to be able to classify information circulating in the community. One of the classification techniques that can be applied to text-based classification is Naïve Bayes. The algorithm is good at performing the classification process. In this research, the precision of the algorithm's has been carried out on 1000 comment datasets. The data is grouped manually first into the labels "bully" and "not bully" then the data is divided into training data and test data. To test the system's ability, the classified data is analyzed using the confusion matrix method. The results showed that the Naïve Bayes Algorithm got the level of precision at 87%. and the level of area under the curve (AUC) at 88%. In terms of speed of completing the system, the Naïve Bayes Algorithm has a very good rate of speed with completion time of 0.033 seconds.
Mortality Projection on Indonesia's Abridged Life Table to Determine the EPV of Term Annuity Galuh Oktavia Siswono; Ulil Azmi; Wawan Hafid Syaifudin
Jurnal Varian Vol 4 No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v4i2.1094

Abstract

The life insurance industries usually use the Life Table for the valuation process, especially in calculating premiums and policy values of a policy. However, the Life Table is rarely updated; and it may even take years before they are updated. This happens because the insurers believe that the information in the Life Table is still related to the current state of a country and for the next several years. In fact, data and information related to mortality rates in a country are constantly changing and always being updated annually. Therefore, as an approach, researchers use the projection of mortality to approach the mortality rate in the future. Thus, future mortality data can be predicted so that better policies can be made by the governments or insurance industries. In this study, the Abridged Life Table of Indonesia is used in the projection of mortality for both sexes (male and female) of the population in Indonesia. The results of mortality projection are then used to calculate the Expected Present Value (EPV) of a term annuity-due under uniform distribution of deaths (UDD) for several values of and ages. The results obtained show that there is a decrease in the value of the mortality rate in the next few years. Therefore, it can be assumed that there is a possibility for longevity risk to occur in the future.
Algorithms Error in The VisualGSCA Program Thesa Adi Purwanto
Jurnal Varian Vol 4 No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v4i2.1096

Abstract

The VisualGSCA program uses an incorrect algorithm, which results in scale inconsistencies between observed and latent variables. The observed variable is standardized, while the latent variable is normalized. This affects the calculation of the wrong estimate parameter value and the goodness-fit value of FIT and AFIT becomes inaccurate. This error occurs because the algorithm used is not a pure GSCA algorithm but a reduced GSCA algorithm that ignores the structural model, resulting in an incorrect FIT value. This study aims to prove that the old version of the GSCA program has problems using its algorithm so that it can affect the results of its statistical calculations. The data used in this study are data from previous studies that have been processed with the old version of the GSCA program, so that the results can be compared with the latest version of the GSCA program. The results obtained prove that there are indeed differences in the value of the Loading Factor and FIT, so that research that has been done previously needs to be reanalyzed using the latest program.
PLS-SEM Analysis to Know Factors Affecting The Interest of Buying Halal Food in Muslim Students Cindy Cahyaning Astuti
Jurnal Varian Vol 4 No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v4i2.1141

Abstract

The increase of halal food products has led to increase in culinary tourism in recent years. One of the districts that has experienced a rapid increase in culinary tourism is Sidoarjo Regency. The development of culinary tourism in the last few years in Sidoarjo Regency generally targets are the students. This study will aim to determine the factors that influence the interest in buying halal food and what factors have the greatest influence on the interest in buying halal food. The analysis technique uses the Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM. Based on the results of the analysis, it is known that of the 5 predictor variables used in the analysis process, there are 4 variables that have a significant effect on Purchase Interest (Y). It can be concluded that increasing of Halal Awareness (X1), Halal Certification (X2), Health (X3) and Value Perception (X5) will further increase Purchase Interest (Y). Meanwhile, based on value of coefficient on each variable, it is known that Health (X3) has the largest coefficient value (0.260), so it can be concluded that Health (X3) has the greatest influence on Purchase Interest (Y).
Analysis of User Satisfication with Graduates in Statistical Study Program Universitas Terbuka Siti Hadijah Hasanah; Dewi Juliah Ratnaningsih
Jurnal Varian Vol 5 No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v5i1.1331

Abstract

Revolution 4.0 requires the Universitas Terbuka Statistics study program to change the educational curriculum that aims to produce quality graduate competencies. Therefore, to collect informationand evaluate the competence of graduates, it is necessary to conduct tracer study research on each graduate. This study aims to measure user satisfaction with graduate competencies using Gap analysis, Importance-Performance Analysis (IPA), Customer Satisfaction Index (CSI), and a multi-attribute Fishbein model. Based on the value of Gap and Science, the main priority that must be improved by graduates to meet user expectations is the ability to solve problems, generate ideas, and be able to present the results of these ideas in the form of reports/journals. The value of the level of suitability between user satisfaction and the importance of the ability of graduates is very good at 92.87% and a CSI value of 78.25%, which means that overall user satisfaction with graduates is good, besides thatbased on the results of the multi-attribute Fishbein model, an Ao value of 158.20 which means that graduate users have a positive attitude towards the abilities of UT Statistics program graduates.
Using SAPR Model for Solution of Social Poverty Problem Due to Covid-19 in Makassar City Suwardi Annas; Syafruddin Side; Andi Muhammad Ridho Yusuf Sainon Andi Pandjajangi; Nurul Fadhilah Syahrul; Luthfiah Arradiah
Jurnal Varian Vol 5 No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v5i1.1399

Abstract

This study aims to build an SAPR model on the problem of poverty, analyze the model, predict the number of poverty rates in the city of Makassar, and determine the parameters that affect the decrease in the number of poverty rates due to Covid-19 in the city of Makassar. This research is quantitative. The population of this study is the number of people in Makassar City who are affected by the spread of COVID-19, while the sample of this study is 400 people. The research stages are: Building the SAPR model on the level of social poverty, determining and analyzing the stability of the equilibrium point, determining the value of the basic reproduction number (R0), conducting model simulations using Maple. The results shown that the mathematical model of SAPR which is a non-linear system of differential equations can be a reference model for the problem of poverty; The results also shown that the analysis of the social poverty level of the population finds two equilibrium points, namely the free equilibrium point for the poor and the poor; the stability of the equilibrium point is free-poor and poor; The basic reproduction number R0 = 0.426 indicates that the poverty level of the social population can be controlled even though it has increased. Based on the model simulation, it was found that the parameter in the form of business funding assistance from the government could reduce the poverty rate due to the Covid-19 pandemic in Makassar city.
The Effectiveness of Vaccination Against The Spread of COVID-19 with SEIR Mathematical Modeling in Gowa District Putri Kharina Mahathir Hulinggi; Husnul Khatimah Syam; Muhammad Irfan; Andi Gagah Palarungi Taufik; Syafruddin Side
Jurnal Varian Vol 5 No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v5i1.1404

Abstract

The spread of disease in epidemic range, endemic range, as well as in the pandemic range that is spreading of the disease can be stopped with getting vaccinated. The vaccines that are effective and efficient can be the missile that stopped this Covid-19 pandemic. The aim of this research is to (1) know the mapping model of mathematics SEIR in distributing vaccines toward the spread of Covid-19 in Kabupaten Gowa, (2) know the analysis and model simulation of mathematics SEIR in distributing vaccine toward the spread of Covid-19 in Kabupaten Gowa, also (3) know the impact of distributing vaccine toward the spread of Covid-19 in Kabupaten Gowa. The method we used is the literature review, the collecting data obtained by an interview and documentation review. The research result discovered that the model of mathematics SEIR is used to describe the distribution of vaccines toward the spread of Covid-19 in Kabupaten Gowa. The analysis and simulation results model of mathematics SEIR showed that the higher vaccines effectiveness and the number of the population in Kabupaten Gowa that already had vaccinated is higher, then showed no more spreads of Covid-19 and the pandemic is over.
Factors Affecting Dissolved Oxygen at Bengawan Solo River: A Spatial Filtering with Eigenvector Technique Evellin Dewi Lusiana; Arief Darmawan; Sarah Hutahaean; Muhammad Musa; Mohammad Mahmudi; Sulastri Arsad
Jurnal Varian Vol 5 No 1 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v5i1.1407

Abstract

The quality of the river changes according to the development of the surrounding environment which is influenced by various human activities. Analysis of factors affecting Dissolved Oxygen (DO) at Bengawan Solo River is crucial for river management purpose and pollution control. Previous research suggested the use classic multiple linear regression. However, DO measurement were usually took place of sampling sites along the river channel. Therefore, there is a high chance that the measurements results may spatially correlated. As the consequence, the utilization of multiple linear regression technique for the dataset can be inappropriate. In this paper, we applied a modification of multiple linear regression model to incorporate with spatial autocorrelation that exist in the data by adding control variable such vector eigen to the model which known as Spatial Filtering with Eigenvector (SFE). The results showed that nitrate and nitrite were the predictor variables that have a negative and significant effect. However, the model contains spatial autocorrelation. The application of SFE technique by adding three eigenvectors as control variables in the model succeeded in making the residual model free from spatial autocorrelation. However, a new problem arose where there was a violation of the non-heteroscedasticity assumption.

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