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ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application
Published by Universitas Hasanuddin
ISSN : 2721379X     EISSN : 27213803     DOI : http://dx.doi.org/10.20956/ejsa
Core Subject : Education,
Mathematics
ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application, is a journal published by the Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Hasanuddin University. ESTIMASI is a peer – reviewed journal with the online submission system for the dissemination of statistics and its application. The material can be sourced from the results of research, theoretical, computational development and all fields of science development that are in one group.
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas
Articles 107 Documents
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Pemodelan Data Panel dengan Pendekatan Least Square Dummy Variable terhadap Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Kasus Kriminalitas di Sulawesi Selatan Nurdin, Afifah Mutiah; Arfan, Muh. Indirwan; Siswanto, Siswanto; Kalondeng, Anisa
ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Vol. 5, No. 1, Januari, 2024 : Estimasi
Publisher : Hasanuddin University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20956/ejsa.v5i1.32128

Abstract

Crime is one of the challenges that often arises in the community environment. In the years 2020-2022, South Sulawesi ranked fourth with the highest reported crime cases in Indonesia. To avoid an increase in the crime rate, an understanding of the factors impacting these cases is necessary. This research aims to determine the fixed effect model with the Least Square Dummy Variable approach to examine the percentage of the poor population, income inequality, population density, and the total population's influence on crime cases in South Sulawesi during the years 2020-2022. The most suitable model is the Least Square Dummy Variable using an individual effect with an analysis result of  of 99.9%. The variables of the percentage of the poor population, population density, and the total population are proven to significantly influence crime cases in South Sulawesi.
Perbandingan Analisis Komponen Utama Robust Minimum Covarian Determinant dengan Least Trimmed Square pada Data Produk Domestik Regional Bruto Amni, Wa Ode Sitti Amni; Jaya, Andi Kresna; Ilyas, Nirwan
ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Vol. 5, No. 2, Juli, 2024 : Estimasi
Publisher : Hasanuddin University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20956/ejsa.v5i2.32283

Abstract

Regression analysis is a method to examine the relationship between variables and determine their influence. However, the problem of multicollinearity often arises in linear regression analysis and can cause interpretation problems. To handle multicollinearity, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is used. However, this method has a weakness when the data contains outliers. Therefore, it was developed into robust PCA using the Minimum Covariance Determinant (MCD) method and the Least Trimmed Square (LTS) estimation method. This study uses Gross Regional Domestic Product data in Indonesia in 2020, which has problems with multicollinearity and outliers. This data is modeled using two robust PCA methods, namely MCD and LTS. The robust PCA model with MCD has an adjusted value of 87.87% and an MSE value of 0.0700. However, in the robust PCA regression model with LTS, the adjusted value is 98.93% and the MSE value is 0.0325. Thus, the effective method in handling multicollinearity and outliers is the LTS method because it shows better results.
Analisis Regresi Data Panel Dengan Model Efek Umum, Model Efek Tetap Dan Model Efek Acak (Studi Kasus: Inflasi Dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia) ada, Nuralyatussa’; Herdiani, Erna Tri; Sirajang, Nasrah
ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Vol. 5, No. 2, Juli, 2024 : Estimasi
Publisher : Hasanuddin University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20956/ejsa.v5i2.33279

Abstract

Panel data regression analysis is a method for modeling the influence of independent variables on dependent variables, on a combination of cross-section and time-series data. This research aims to estimate a panel data regression model with a generalized effects model using the least squares method, estimate a fixed effects model with the Least Square Dummy Variable and estimate a random effects model with Generalized Least Square on inflation and human development index data. The results obtained show that the factors that have a significant influence at the 5% level on the inflation rate in 2014-2019 are the dollar exchange rate with a coefficient of determination of the general effects model of 61.06%, then the HDI level in South Sulawesi in 2011-2017 is significantly influenced by factors such as average length of schooling and life expectancy with a coefficient of determination of the fixed effects model of 89.73%, and the HDI level in South Sulawesi in 2016-2019 is significantly influenced by the factors of life expectancy, per capita expenditure and poverty with a coefficient of determination of the random effects model amounting to 63.07%.
Estimasi Parameter Model Three-Factor Completely Randomized Design dengan Metode Robust MM Nurkamalia, Nurkamalia; Kalondeng, Anisa; Sirajang, Nasrah
ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Vol. 6, No. 1, Januari, 2025 : Estimasi
Publisher : Hasanuddin University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20956/ejsa.v6i1.18323

Abstract

When conducting experiments, it is often found that there are errors in the observed responses. It can cause data outliers to appear whose existence results in making conclusions inaccurate. Therefore, outliers need to be overcome by applying the robust regression method. The robust method used is the robust MM because it has a high level of efficiency and breakdown point. The Robust MM method is useful for obtaining parameter estimates in a three-factor Completely Randomized Design (CRD) which is applied to the data on average abdominal fat of broiler chickens experiencing outliers in four observations. The results showed that the presence of outliers caused no effect of differences in age of chicken and the interaction between age of chicken and feeding fermented kiambang on the average abdominal fat of broiler chickens. However, after the data was replaced with estimated data obtained from the Robust MM method to overcome outliers, it showed that there was an effect of age of chicken and the interaction between age of chicken and feeding of fermented kiambang on the average abdominal fat of broiler chickens.
Pemodelan Regresi Zero Inflated Negative Binomial pada Data yang Mengalami Overdispersi Fajri, Ainul; Jaya, Andi Kresna; Talangko, La Podje
ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Vol. 6, No. 1, Januari, 2025 : Estimasi
Publisher : Hasanuddin University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20956/ejsa.v6i1.21037

Abstract

Poisson regression is a nonlinear regression model with the response variables in the form of discrete data and Poisson distribution. Data analysis using Poisson regression must meet assumptions such as the variance value and the average value of the response variables have the same value. However, in its application, overdispersion often occurs, namely the variance value is greater than the average value. Overdispersion in Poisson regression can occur because of the number of zero observations on the response variable. Data with zero excess and overdispersion are more suitable for using ZINB regression. The ZINB regression model is a model formed from the mixed distribution of the Poisson gamma. The ZINB regression model parameters were estimated using the MLE method with the EM algorithm. This study was applied to data on the number of neonatal deaths in Makassar City in 2018. The results of testing the ZINB regression model parameters showed that the predictor variable that had a partially significant effect was the number of newborns with low birth weight.
Penentuan Arsitektur Terbaik Model NAR-NN untuk Peramalan Kasus Covid-19 Awalin, Qonita Ilmi; Anggraeni, Dian; Hadi, Alfian Futuhul
ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Vol. 6, No. 1, Januari, 2025 : Estimasi
Publisher : Hasanuddin University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20956/ejsa.v6i1.21365

Abstract

The NAR-NN model will be applied in time series forecasting, namely data on confirmed cases of Covid- 19 in East Kalimantan Province. The use of time series data as the basis for forecasting so that it can recognize patterns that occur which can then be used as a reference to predict the number of cases that will occur. This research data is 300 daily data for the time period from October 23, 2020 to August 18, 2021, which follows a nonlinear pattern and experiences an upward trend. In this study, the best architecture was determined for the NAR-NN model using the sigmoid activation function and the Levenberg-Marquadt Backpropagation training algorithm. The NAR-NN architecture consists of three layers, namely the input layer, the hidden layer, and the output layer. The evaluation model used is the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results of this study by experimenting with the number of hidden neurons showed that the model with the best architecture at the time of delay was 4 and the number of hidden neurons was 8 with the MAPE value forecast with actual data of 7.5083%.
Estimasi Model Perubahan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan melalui Regresi Kuantil Spline Smoothing Ashwad K, Hajratul; Islamiyati, Anna; Siswanto, Siswanto
ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Vol. 6, No. 1, Januari, 2025 : Estimasi
Publisher : Hasanuddin University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20956/ejsa.v6i1.25198

Abstract

Regression of nonparametric quantile is conducted on purpose to help estimating the function of regression when the assumptions about the regression curve shape are not known involving quantile values. Spline is claimed as one of the estimators commonly applied in nonparametric regression. Patterns of platelet change in Jacarta Composite Indeks (JCI) based on Dow Jones Index (IDJ) were analyszed by quantile spline smoothing using τ 0.25, 0.50, and 0.75. The analysis results show two patterns of change in the relationship of JCI and the IDJ. It can be seen from the optimal knot point for each quantile, namely 28500, 35000 and 29600, which shows that before and after the IDJ value reaches the point from the knot point, there is a tendency to decrease and then increase in the JCI data. The optimal model with the one-knot point. According to the minimum GCV value, the optimal model with the smallest GCV vaue, which is 5243.45 on quantile 0.75.
Perbandingan Kinerja Peta Kendali Exponentially Weighted Moving Average dan Peta Kendali Double Exponentially Weighted Moving Average dalam Pengendalian Kualitas Produksi Butsudan di PT. Maruki International Indonesia Sonya, Sonya; Herdiani, Erna Tri; Tinungki, Georgina Maria
ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Vol. 6, No. 1, Januari, 2025 : Estimasi
Publisher : Hasanuddin University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20956/ejsa.v6i1.25751

Abstract

Quality control is an effort in the production process to maintain product quality and minimize the occurrence of defects. One of the quality control tools is a control chart. An exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart is used to detect small shifts in the process mean. The result of the development of the EWMA control chart is the double exponentially weighted moving average (DEWMA) control chart, which increases the exponential smoothing process, where the control chart is considered more sensitive in detecting small shifts in the process mean. This study aims to obtain a comparison of the performance of the EWMA and DEWMA control charts in controlling the quality of butsudan production at PT. Maruki International Indonesia. The results obtained show that the DEWMA control chart has better performance in detecting small shifts compared to the EWMA control chart based on the smallest ARL value, at λ=0.1 the DEWMA control chart has an ARL value 1.1363 which is smaller than the ARL of EWMA control chart is 1.2268.
Pengelompokan Daerah Produksi Tanaman Biofarmaka Menurut Jenis Tanaman dengan Metode K – Means Clustering Kholifah, Fitri Nur; Bahri, Saiful
ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Vol. 6, No. 1, Januari, 2025 : Estimasi
Publisher : Hasanuddin University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20956/ejsa.v6i1.27200

Abstract

Biopharmaceutical plants or commonly called medicinal plants are plants in which one, several or all parts of these plants contain substances or active ingredients that are useful for body health, disease healing or cosmetic ingredients. Based on data from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), the production of biopharmaceutical plants varies in each region. So that in an effort to equalize the results of biopharmaceutical production in Indonesia, it is necessary to group areas that have the potential to produce biopharmaceutical plants to find out which areas produce in large or small quantities. In this research, a method is needed to facilitate the grouping of biopharmaceutical producing regions, one of which is the clustering analysis method. . One of the methods that can be used in cluster analysis is the k-means clustering algorithm. The results of this study indicate that there are 5 provinces that are included in cluster 1 (C1) with the category of low biopharmaceutical production in 2021. Meanwhile, 29 other provinces are included in the cluster. 2 (C2) with the category of high biopharmaceutical production areas in 2021.
Analisis Kepuasan Cleaning Service dengan Menggunakan Metode Service Quality dan Importance Performance Analysis (IPA) pada Rsud. Prof. Dr. W. Z. Johanes Kupang Here, Alfonsius Israel; Kleden, Maria Agustina; Atti, Astri
ESTIMASI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application Vol. 6, No. 1, Januari, 2025 : Estimasi
Publisher : Hasanuddin University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20956/ejsa.v6i1.27989

Abstract

Hospital is an organization run by professional medical personnel who are well organized in terms of medical infrastructure, continuous nursing care, and diagnosis and treatment of diseases suffered by patients. According to the system, hospitals are run by workers such as doctors, nurses, hospital employees, and also cleaners such as cleaning services. The purpose of this study was to determine the cleaning service satisfaction of Prof. Dr. W. Z. Johanes Kupang hospital as an important component of the implementation of activities in the hospital using the servqual and importance performance analysis (IPA) methods. The result of this study is that the cleaning service as a whole is dissatisfied with the hospital side because it is based on the results of calculating the gap or the difference between the expected and reality values, namely -14.30044.

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