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Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi
Published by Universitas Negeri Gorontalo
ISSN : 20879393     EISSN : 27763706     DOI : -
Core Subject : Science, Education,
Computer Science & IT Mathematics
Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi is a national journal intended as a communication forum for mathematicians and other scientists from many practitioners who use mathematics in the research. Euler disseminates new research results in all areas of mathematics and their applications. Besides research articles, the journal also receives survey papers that stimulate research in mathematics and its applications. The scope of the articles published in this journal deal with a broad range of mathematics topics, including: Mathematics Applied Mathematics Statistics and Probability Applied Statistics Mathematics Education Mathematics Learning Computational Mathematics Science and Technology
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Matematika (Lain-Lain)
Articles 163 Documents
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Peramalan Harga Emas Berjangka Menggunakan Metode ARIMA-GARCH Hasanah, Mauizatun; Putri, Mega Ramatika; Notodiputro, Khairil Anwar; Angraini, Yenni; Mualifah, Laily Nissa Atul
Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Volume 13 Issue 2 August 2025
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/euler.v13i2.32723

Abstract

Gold futures price forecasting plays an important role in investment decision-making and risk management, especially in the midst of volatile commodity market dynamics. This research aims to build an accurate gold futures price forecasting model by combining Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. The ARIMA model is used to capture linear patterns and historical trends in time series data, while the GARCH model is able to handle the high volatility characteristic of gold price movements, something that conventional forecasting models often fail to capture. The data used in this study is daily gold futures price data collected over the period January 3, 2023 to March 31, 2025, which covers both normal market conditions and periods of turmoil, making it relevant to describe the overall market dynamics. The forecasting results show that the ARIMA-GARCH model with components (3,1,3) (1,1) with a MAPE of 4.52% indicates a good level of accuracy in the context of forecasting gold futures prices that have high volatility. Thus, this model provides precise forecasting results with actual data so that it can be used by market participants and policy makers in managing risks and designing strategies.
Perbandingan Kriteria Kataoka Safety First dan Mean Varians dalam Pembentukan Portofolio Saham Optimal Siswanah, Emy; Abdurakhman, Abdurakhman; Maruddani, Di Asih I
Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Volume 13 Issue 2 August 2025
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/euler.v13i2.32846

Abstract

The Markowitz Mean-Variance Portfolio and the Kataoka Safety-First criterion share similarities, as both serve as risk-control methods and suitable for risk-averse investors. This study compares these two approaches in constructing an optimal portfolio and evaluates their respective performances. The findings indicate that the portfolio weights derived from both methods are positive. Empirical evidence suggests that the expected return of the Kataoka Safety-First portfolio is consistently higher than that of the Mean-Variance method. However, this greater return is accompanied by a higher level of risk. Furthermore, the Sharpe and Treynor indices for the Kataoka Safety-First portfolio surpass those of the Mean-Variance method across both portfolio variations analyzed. These results confirm that the Kataoka Safety-First portfolio demonstrates superior performance compared to the Mean-Variance approach. Therefore, the Kataoka Safety-First criterion presents itself as a viable strategy for constructing an optimal portfolio tailored to risk-averse investors.
Implementasi Metode Bayesian untuk Menghitung Premi Produk Asuransi Kendaran Bermotor dengan Pendekatan Monte Carlo Markov Chain Situmorang, Boy Nathanael; A’la, Kevina Alal; Arvianti, Aurellia; Yusuf, Feby Indriana; Handamari, Endang Wahyu
Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Volume 13 Issue 2 August 2025
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37905/euler.v13i2.32930

Abstract

Accurate premium determination is a fundamental aspect of risk management in motor vehicle insurance. This study implements the Bayesian method using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to calculate the net premium. The aggregate claim model is constructed from a claim frequency distribution (Poisson) and a claim severity distribution (Generalized Extreme Value (GEV)), with the GEV distribution specifically chosen to model extreme claim risk. The analysis utilizes generated data for the period 2018–2024, with parameters derived from the historical data of PT Asuransi Jasa Indonesia Purwokerto (2013–2017). Parameter estimation, performed via OpenBUGS software, was validated to have achieved good convergence (MC-error   ). Based on the estimated parameters, a premium of IDR 397.502.000 was obtained, calculated using the net premium principle from the expected value of aggregate claims. These results demonstrate that the Bayesian MCMC approach is effective for producing a robust premium estimation, contributing a pricing framework that explicitly accounts for extreme value claims.

Page 17 of 17 | Total Record : 163

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