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Operations Research: International Conference Series
Published by Indonesian Operations Research Association
ISSN : 27231739     EISSN : 27220974     DOI : https://doi.org/10.47194/orics
Core Subject : Economy, Science, Education, Engineering,
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Engineering Mathematics
Operations Research: International Conference Series (ORICS) is published 4 times a year and is the flagship journal of the Indonesian Operational Research Association (IORA). It is the aim of ORICS to present papers which cover the theory, practice, history or methodology of OR. However, since OR is primarily an applied science, it is a major objective of the journal to attract and publish accounts of good, practical case studies. Consequently, papers illustrating applications of OR to real problems are especially welcome. In real applications of OR: forecasting, inventory, investment, location, logistics, maintenance, marketing, packing, purchasing, production, project management, reliability and scheduling. In a wide variety of environments: community OR, education, energy, finance, government, health services, manufacturing industries, mining, sports, and transportation. In technical approaches: decision support systems, expert systems, heuristics, networks, mathematical programming, multicriteria decision methods, problems structuring methods, queues, and simulation.
Arjuna Subject : Umum - Umum
Articles 125 Documents
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Determination of Micro-Insurance Premium Price for Fisheries Using Poisson-Exponential Aggregate Distribution Approach Fadhilah, Dila Nur; Syahla, Raynita; Azahra, Astrid Sulistya
Operations Research: International Conference Series Vol. 5 No. 2 (2024): Operations Research International Conference Series (ORICS), June 2024
Publisher : Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/orics.v5i2.315

Abstract

Engaging in pond aquaculture is currently an attractive option amid the high demand for fish in the market. Entrepreneurial opportunities in the pond fish farming sector are increasingly open, although the risk of crop failure remains, both due to weather factors and the livestock process. Crop failure can have a significant financial impact on pond aquaculture cultivators. Therefore, it is necessary to have special insurance to protect against financial losses due to risks that can occur, namely Fisheries Micro Insurance. Microinsurance is a type of insurance product that is specifically designed for low-income people, offering simple, accessible, economically priced features and administration, and a fast compensation settlement process. The focus of this research is to calculate premium prices by applying an aggregate risk model approach. The data used is the number of incidents and the amount of losses due to crop failure in shrimp pond cultivation in Pandeglang Regency in the period of January 1, 2019-January 1, 2021. Data on the number of events follows the Poisson distribution, while data on the magnitude of losses follows the Exponential distribution. Furthermore, the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method is used to calculate the parameter estimation. The average and variance estimates of the aggregate risk are used to determine the amount of premiums. The result of the premium selection in this study is IDR 42,005,600. The amount of premium reflects the collective premium resulting from the calculation based on the standard deviation principle.
Calculation of the Level of Death Risk in Traffic Accidents Based On Aggregate Loss Costs Audina, Maudy Afifah; Hasanah, Anggraeni Mafhul
Operations Research: International Conference Series Vol. 5 No. 1 (2024): Operations Research International Conference Series (ORICS), March 2024
Publisher : Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/orics.v5i1.278

Abstract

The transportation sector is undergoing transformative changes, driven by the emergence of autonomous vehicles and advancements in smart transportation systems. However, these innovations pose novel challenges, particularly in mitigating the risk of fatalities in traffic accidents. This study focuses on estimating death risk in traffic accidents by analyzing aggregate loss costs within the context of traffic safety. Employing a quantitative approach, the research utilizes the Poisson distribution to model the frequency of fatal incidents and the exponential distribution function to depict the distribution of associated losses. The study's objective is to calculate aggregate losses, offering insights into the potential severity of risks. Through a comprehensive analysis, the results affirm the efficacy of the Poisson and exponential distributions in assessing death risk in traffic accidents, with the highest estimated aggregate loss cost reaching Rp3.734.832,09. 
Analysis of the Influence of Fixed Asset Depreciation Methods on Profitability: A Case Study of the Tirta Arcamanik Endah Association Fitria, Salwa Nur; Khotimah, Alifiah
Operations Research: International Conference Series Vol. 5 No. 4 (2024): Operations Research International Conference Series (ORICS), December 2024
Publisher : Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/orics.v5i4.346

Abstract

Fixed assets are a significant long-term investment for a company. For Paguyuban Tirta Arcamanik Endah, a company providing artesian water services, fixed assets such as water distribution infrastructure are the backbone of operations. Choosing the right fixed asset depreciation method is crucial, because it will affect the company's cost recognition, net income, and cash flow. This study aims to test the hypothesis that the use of the declining balance method will increase the company's cash flow in the short term, but can reduce the long-term profitability of water service providers. This study will analyze the financial report data of Paguyuban Tirta Arcamanik Endah for 2 years, focusing on the effect of the depreciation method on variables such as net income, operating cash flow, and financial ratios. This study is expected to fill the gap in research related to the impact of depreciation methods on medium-scale water service providers. The results of this study can provide recommendations for company management in choosing the optimal depreciation method, as well as contributing to the development of accounting literature.
Home Financing Analysis Taking Inflation and Variable Interest Rates into Account With Ordinary Annuities Fathurrohman, Rafi Bintang; Guntarajati, Pandu
Operations Research: International Conference Series Vol. 5 No. 4 (2024): Operations Research International Conference Series (ORICS), December 2024
Publisher : Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/orics.v5i4.347

Abstract

This study aims to determine the effect of variable interest rates and inflation on the credit system, namely Home Ownership Credit (KPR) using the ordinary annuity approach. This KPR can be influenced by several factors, especially the variable interest rate and inflation factors that affect the total monthly installments that must be paid by customers. In this study, the ordinary annuity approach is used to determine the KPR installment payments by taking into account fluctuations in variable interest rates and inflation. By looking at interest rate and inflation data from year to year. The results of this study indicate that inflation affects people's purchasing power while interest rates affect the amount of installment fees that must be paid. It is hoped that this study can help customers to understand the risks that can occur regarding KPR facilities in economic dynamics.
Analysis of the Influence of Interest Rates on Cash Flow in Real Estate Investment Funds Santi, Lidwina Maura; Gilba, Nasya Safina
Operations Research: International Conference Series Vol. 5 No. 4 (2024): Operations Research International Conference Series (ORICS), December 2024
Publisher : Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/orics.v5i4.350

Abstract

Interest rates play a significant role in determining financing costs, property values, and rental income, all of which have a direct impact on net cash flows derived from property investments. When interest rates rise, borrowing costs increase, reducing the net cash flow available for distribution to REIT unitholders. Conversely, a decrease in interest rates can increase net cash flow due to lower financing costs. This study aims to analyze the effect of interest rates on cash flow in Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) using sensitivity simulation methods, modified duration, and risk measurement using Value at Risk (VaR). The results show that changes in interest rates have a significant impact on REIT cash flow, with an increase in interest rates worsening profitability and a decrease in interest rates having a positive impact. The effect of interest rates shows that REIT investors and managers need to pay attention to dynamics in strategic planning to minimize financial risk and maximize profits.
The Impact of Loan Amount and Interest Rates on Micro MSME Sales Growth Meylania SPS, Ni Made Ayu; Rebecca NS, Irene
Operations Research: International Conference Series Vol. 5 No. 4 (2024): Operations Research International Conference Series (ORICS), December 2024
Publisher : Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/orics.v5i4.351

Abstract

Micro MSMEs are the backbone of the economy. This study analyzes the effect of the amount of bank loans on the sales growth of micro MSMEs. Using a simple linear regression analysis method, this study shows that an increase in the amount of loans significantly contributes to the sales growth of micro MSMEs. These results emphasize the importance of wider credit access for micro MSMEs to support their sales growth. This study also indicates that changes in interest rates do not have a significant effect on the sales growth of micro MSMEs. The policy implications of these findings are the need for more inclusive and affordable financing programs for micro MSMEs, as well as increasing their access to various alternative funding sources.
Health Sector Portfolio Optimization Using the Markowitz Approach with Risk Aversion and Risk Tolerance Parameters Ismail, Muhammad Iqbal Al-Banna; Pirdaus, Dede Irman
Operations Research: International Conference Series Vol. 5 No. 4 (2024): Operations Research International Conference Series (ORICS), December 2024
Publisher : Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/orics.v5i4.352

Abstract

This study analyzes the optimal portfolio formation of health sector stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange using the Markowitz approach with dual risk parameters. Unlike traditional mean-variance optimization, this research incorporates both risk aversion (ρ) and risk tolerance (τ) parameters to better accommodate varying investor risk preferences. Using daily closing price data from six health sector stocks during the period January 2022 to December 2023, this study employs web scraping techniques for data collection and implements portfolio optimization calculations. The results show that the dual risk parameters approach produces consistent portfolio weights across both risk measures, with SIDO.JK receiving the highest allocation (approximately 41.6%) followed by SOHO.JK (23.0%) and SILO.JK (16.9%). The efficient frontier analysis demonstrates portfolio risk ranges from 0.015 to 0.030 with returns between 0.10% to 0.45%. This study contributes to the literature by demonstrating how incorporating dual risk parameters can provide more nuanced portfolio allocations while maintaining the fundamental benefits of diversification.
Investment Portfolio Optimization using Mean-Semi Standard Deviation Model (Case Study: BBNI, BBCA, BMRI, TLKM, and ANTM) Saputra, Moch Panji Agung; Hidayana, Rizki Apriva; Laksito, Grida Saktian
Operations Research: International Conference Series Vol. 5 No. 4 (2024): Operations Research International Conference Series (ORICS), December 2024
Publisher : Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/orics.v5i4.353

Abstract

This study aims to determine the optimal stock portfolio allocation using the Mean-Semi Standard Deviation optimization model as an alternative to the more commonly used Mean-Variance model. The Mean-Semi Standard Deviation model considers downside risk, which is more relevant to investors' preferences in minimizing potential losses. The data used in this study consists of daily closing prices of five stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BBNI, BBCA, BMRI, TLKM, and ANTM) from December 7, 2023, to December 6, 2024. The optimization process was conducted using the Lagrange method to maximize the portfolio's expected return with controlled risk, incorporating a risk aversion parameter (ro) to adjust for investor preferences. The results show that the portfolio with a risk aversion value of ro=0.1 provides the highest return-to-risk ratio of 0.058556, with the largest portfolio weight allocated to BBCA stock. The findings suggest that the Mean-Semi Standard Deviation model can serve as a more effective approach to portfolio management in the Indonesian stock market, particularly in reducing downside risk amid high market volatility.
Multi-Algorithm Machine Learning Approach for Loan Risk Prediction: Comparative Analysis of Performance of Different Models Sinaga , Hans Steven .V.
Operations Research: International Conference Series Vol. 6 No. 2 (2025): Operations Research International Conference Series (ORICS), June 2025
Publisher : Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/orics.v6i2.348

Abstract

This study focuses on predicting the probability of customer default in consumer loan products using historical customer behavior data. The dataset includes information such as income, age, work experience, marital status, home ownership, car ownership, and others. Several techniques such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) are used to reduce the dimensions of correlated features. Various machine learning algorithms are applied, such as Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Random Forest, XGBoost, and others. The results show that the XGBoost model provides the best performance with the highest AUC Score even though Random Forest provides the best accuracy performance.
Analysis of the Effect of Cash Ratio on Corporate Bankruptcy Risk: Case Study of Manufacturing Companies Tenripada, Andi Sakinah Yan; Wandira, Ika
Operations Research: International Conference Series Vol. 6 No. 2 (2025): Operations Research International Conference Series (ORICS), June 2025
Publisher : Indonesian Operations Research Association (IORA)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47194/orics.v6i2.349

Abstract

This study aims to explore the relationship between cash ratio and bankruptcy risk using an empirical analysis approach, and relate it to the Altman Z-score model as an indicator of financial sustainability. By analyzing the financial statement data of companies listed on the stock exchange during the period 2019-2023, this study investigates the impact of liquidity measured by cash ratio on bankruptcy potential. Regression method is used to assess the relationship, while Altman Z-score serves as a tool to measure the financial health of the company. The results show that the cash ratio contributes little to reducing the risk of bankruptcy, yet firms with higher liquidity exhibit a better Z-score. These findings highlight the importance of liquidity management as a strategy to ensure the financial sustainability of firms in the face of bankruptcy challenges.

Page 11 of 13 | Total Record : 125

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