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Jurnal Riset Ilmu Ekonomi
Published by Universitas Pasundan
ISSN : -     EISSN : 27764567     DOI : -
Core Subject : Economy,
Jurnal Riset Ilmu Ekonomi (JRIE) adalah jurnal ilmiah dari Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Pasundan yang memiliki tujuan sebagai media pertukaran informasi untuk mewadahi pemikiran ilmiah para ekonom, akademisi, peneliti serta pengamat pada bidang Ekonomi dan Keuangan. Jurnal ini menerbitkan makalah penelitian atau artikel ilmiah teoritis dan empiris kekinian mengikuti isu ekonomi dan keuangan yang berkembang. JRIE terbit tiga kali dalam satu tahun yaitu edisi April, Agustus dan Desember. JRIE mencakup ide atau pemikiran ilmiah yang berkaitan dengan Ekonomi dan Keuangan dengan ruang lingkup pada bidang tertentu yaitu : Ekonomi Makro dan Ekonomi Moneter Ekonomi Keuangan Ekonomi dan Organisasi Industri Ekonomi Pembangunan, Inovasi, Pertukaran Teknologi dan Pertumbuhan
Articles 71 Documents
Beyond Commodity Prices: Industrial Metals and Long-Run Economic Growth in Indonesia Hariono, Hariono; Sapriyadi, Sapriyadi; Anggraini, Yuyun
Jurnal Riset Ilmu Ekonomi Vol. 5 No. 3 (2025): Jurnal Riset Ilmu Ekonomi (JRIE) Edisi Desember 2025
Publisher : Universitas Pasundan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23969/jrie.v5i3.399

Abstract

This study investigates the long-run and nonlinear relationship between industrial metal prices and economic growth in Indonesia by interpreting aluminum and copper prices as structural proxies for global industrial metabolism. Moving beyond conventional commodity-price analysis, the study employs a time-series econometric framework integrating unit root tests, ARDL bounds cointegration, error correction modeling, and threshold analysis. Using long-horizon annual data, the findings reveal a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between Indonesia’s real GDP and industrial metal proxies, indicating that national economic growth is structurally embedded in material-intensive global production dynamics. The long-run estimates show that aluminum prices exert a positive effect on economic growth, reflecting their role in supporting broad-based industrial throughput and manufacturing expansion. In contrast, copper prices display a negative long-run effect, suggesting that rising material complexity and infrastructural intensity may constrain growth. The nonlinear results further identify a critical copper-price threshold beyond which its impact on growth becomes strongly negative, signaling a transition from productive expansion to systemic industrial stress. These findings underscore the importance of accounting for structural and nonlinear dynamics when assessing growth trajectories in resource-rich developing economies.