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INDONESIA
Indonesian Capital Market Review
Published by Universitas Indonesia
ISSN : 19798997     EISSN : 23563818     DOI : https://doi.org/10.7454/icmr
Core Subject : Economy,
Economics, Econometrics & Finance
The intent of the Editors of The Indonesian Capital Market Review is to discuss, to explore, and to disseminate the latest issues and developments in Empirical Financial Economics particularly those related to financial frictions in the Emerging Markets. The topics cover capital markets, financial institutions and services, corporate finance, risk modeling and management, market microstructure in financial markets, Islamic finance, behavioral finance, and financial crisis. By submitting your work to the Indonesian Capital Market Review (ICMR), the author(s) automatically agree to transfer the copyright to ICMR, if the submitted paper is accepted for publication.
Arjuna Subject : Ilmu Ekonomi, Ekonometrika dan Keuangan (semua kategori) - Keuangan
Articles 171 Documents
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The Extended Fama-French Three Factor Model : Revisited Awwaliyah, Intan Nurul; Husodo, Zäafri Ananto
Indonesian Capital Market Review Vol. 10, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

This paper is aimed to validate the four-factor asset pricing model as an improvement towards the standard Fama-French three-factor model. Using U.S. monthly stock returns data from period January 1963 to December 2010, we construct 25 portfolios and the four-factor model includes the market factor (beta), the size factor (SMB), the book-to-market factor (HML), and the ‘momentum' factor (MOM). Similar time series method as in Fama and French (1993) are employed to elaborate the three-factor model and the four-factor model regression. Our findings show that the four-factor model to some extent has significant capability in explaining the variations in average excess stock returns. Although the R2 extracted from the four-factor model is just slightly higher than the three-factor model, yet it provides suggestive for the robustness of the four-factor model. In addition, our robustness test shows that January seasonal effect is absorbed by the risk factors including the market factors, SMB, HML, and MOM factor. The consistency of the four-factor model in explaining the U.S stock market return variations for the newest data, provide relevance to apply this model in emerging markets data in order to give guidance for investor in understanding the market condition.
Bowman’s Paradox: Prospect-Theory-Based Risk-Return Relationship (Some Recent Evidence in Indonesia) Nuir, Rikko Sajjad; Asri, Marwan
Indonesian Capital Market Review Vol. 11, No. 1
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

There is extensive evidence indicating a negative risk–return relation when a firm’s performance is measured based on accounting measures, such as its Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE). Previous studies show that the risk-return paradox can be explained by the prospect theory, which predicts that managers’ risk attitudes are different for firms with differing performance. This study will test whether there is a risk-return paradox in the context of Indonesian companies. This study uses ROA and its standard deviation to define return and risk. Industry level and market level median ROA are used as reference points. Three control variables (firm size, leverage as a proxy of firm risk, and company age) are included in the model to increase the robustness of this research. A new sample of nine industries (about 488 firms) over a 10-year period (2008-2017) provides strong evidence that the risk-return paradox exists in Indonesia. In particular, firms which are below their target level are found to be risk takers (Hl) while organizations above their target level are risk averse (H2); moreover, the below-target slope was generally steeper than the above-target slope (H3). These results support the basic propositions of the prospect theory.
High-Frequency Trading Activities and Brokerage Firms Effect : Empirical Evidence From the Indonesia Stock Exchange Barsiano, Redik; Hanafi, Mamduh Mahmadah; Arief, Usman
Indonesian Capital Market Review Vol. 11, No. 1
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

This research studies the trading activity of type of traders through their brokers. Order imbalance is believed to be a better proxy for explaining trading activity. This paper presents some empirical test that on brokerage level analysis exhibit information paradigm in Indonesia which market makers and specialist are not available. We divide imbalances into groups of samples (all stocks and most liquid stocks), trader type (foreign or domestic) and size of brokerage firm (small to big). Our results show that order imbalances generally have a positive serial correlation for all the traders and brokers analyzed. However, we find that the determinant of order imbalances is a particular phenomenon at the brokerage level, whose results differ from our market-wide analysis. We do not find that previous order imbalances can predict market returns across trader type and brokerage class. In contrast, for the inventory paradigm, the evidence from the brokerage level analysis indicates that information dissemination is induced order imbalance by brokerage house.
The Profitability of Momentum Strategies : A Study of Indonesian Stock Exchange Mosii, Rakhmat Luthfiansyah; Wibowo, Sigit Sulistiyo
Indonesian Capital Market Review Vol. 11, No. 1
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

We investigate the profitability of style and price momentum strategy in the Indonesian stock market from the year 2000 to 2015. We find the style momentum strategy yields significant positive returns while the price momentum strategy tends to produce negative returns. This result confirms the findings of Lewellen (2002) that style momentum returns are generally stronger than the conventional momentum. The average monthly returns of the double-sorted size-B/M style momentum are ranging from 1.98% to 2.64% and persistent after controlling for market factor using JSX index. Our findings suggest investors should utilize publicly available information such as size and book-to-market ratio on their investment decision in the Indonesian stock market.
Domestic and Foreign Investor Dynamics in Indonesian Stock Exchange : Evidence from 10 Years High-Frequency Data Arroisi, Abdurrahman; Koesrindartoto, Deddy Priatmojo
Indonesian Capital Market Review Vol. 11, No. 1
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

This study analyses price impact, herding behaviour, and feedback trading of domestic and foreign investors in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) by employing vector autoregressive models using high-frequency transaction data in the period of 2008 – 2017. We find that domestic investors impact return negatively whereas foreign investors have no impact to return. In terms of herding behavior, domestic and foreign investors herd to themselves strongly. Domestic investors reverse-herd to foreign investors in the short-term (1 day) but no consistent pattern in the opposite direction. Regarding feedback trading, both domestic and foreign investors are contrarian in the big and medium cap portfolios but employ momentum strategy in the small cap portfolio. We also find that, in the crisis period, price impact is more pronounced in terms of economic and statistical significance. On the other hand, evidence of herding behavior and feedback trading decreases in market downturns, although with the same patterns overall.
Trading Frequency in KSE – 100 Index Using Pastor and Stambaugh Model Ahmed, Farhan; Ali, Mudassir; Raza, Muhammad; Sibghat, Muhammad
Indonesian Capital Market Review Vol. 11, No. 1
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

The study aims to asses Pastor & Stambaugh model on Pakistan Stock Exchange (KSE-100 Index) from 2007 to 2017. Four commonly asset pricing factors are tested including market risk, size, value and liquidity premium. Except for the value premium, all factors are statistically found significant. Pertinent to mention that liquidity factor is initially found insignificant since annual returns are calculated. However, after taking most liquid sector during the period (Chemical Sector) the liquidity measure is derived through monthly returns. The result of the study is backed with Utility preference theory because it is observed that investors do prefer more liquid stocks and as a result when pricing securities liquidity factor holds an important position.
Dynamic Linkages between US Dollar-Ringgit spot, forward and NDF during QE and Post-QE Exit Lau, Wee-Yeap; Yip, Tien Ming; Go, You How
Indonesian Capital Market Review Vol. 11, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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This study investigates the information flow between U.S. Dollar-Ringgit spot, forward and Nondeliverable Forward (NDF) exchange rates during the pre and post-U. S. Quantitative Easing (QE) exit. Our results show: First, there is a robust unidirectional causality from NDF to spot and NDF to forward in the post-QE period; Second, Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) has a vital role during the QE period while international reserve precedes the spot, forward and NDF exchange rates in the post-US QE exit. Our results reaffirm the policy measures taken by the Central Bank in regulating the NDF market. Our finding suggests that: First: MGS and Reserve are essential variables that can be used to counter speculation from the offshore NDF market; and Second, right policy stance must be communicated by the Central Bank to the market participants to avoid excessive volatility to the domestic currency which will affect the real economy
Capital Structure and Adjustment Speed: Evidence From Listed Manufacturing Firms in Indonesia and Malaysia Memon, Pervaiz Ahmed; Shah Syed, Mir Muhammad; Ghumro, Niaz Hussain; Rus, Rohani Md
Indonesian Capital Market Review Vol. 11, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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This paper identifies factors determining capital structure and estimates the speed at which firmsadjust to optimal debt in Malaysian and Indonesian manufacturing firms. It uses the difference Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator and the partial adjustment model in a sample of 141 Malaysian and 96 Indonesian firms, which include many of the major manufacture companies in these economies. The results suggest the existence of dynamic capital structure in both countries, but differences in adjustment speed towards optimal debt and factors affecting the optimal debt levels are evident between these countries. Firm-specific factors such as tangibility of assets, non-debt tax shield, and profitability significantly affect optimal debt in both countries. However, most countryspecific factors are insignificant determinants, GDP in Malaysia being the sole exception. The findings of this study are helpful for corporate managers, policymakers, and regulatory authorities in monitoring the amount of debt used by the firms and their adjustment speed towards target debt to avoid the bankruptcies. Financial reforms can be worked out in these economies to better support the firms in use of optimal debt.
Stock Market Reaction to the Tax Amnesty Announcement Wibowo, Muhammad Satriyo; Sukmaningrum, Puji Sucia
Indonesian Capital Market Review Vol. 11, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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The Indonesian Government has put in place policies that are quite bold and that highly impacton both companies and the economy. This includes the endorsement tax amnesty policy in 2016.This study aims to investigate the reaction of the stock market against the policy. The dataset of this research was 100 companies listed on the Indonesian Islamic Stock Index (ISSI). Research methods used the event study market adjusted model to look at changes in the Average Abnormal Return (AAR) and Trading Volume Activity (TVA) during the announcement. The results of this research show there is a difference in the AAR and TVA before and after the announcement. The investors positively viewed the information content of the tax amnesty policy. The government has made a very good policy and it supports the improvement in the quality of corporate governance and company performance.
Systemically Important Banks in Indonesia: Findings From Multivariate GARCH Conditional Value at Risk Arief, Usman; Husodo, Zäafri Ananto
Indonesian Capital Market Review Vol. 11, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

We investigate the systemically important banks in the Indonesian financial system usingMultivariate GARCH Conditional Value at Risk (CoVaR). The systemic risk measurement, ΔCoVaR,defined as the change from CoVaR in its benchmark state as a one-standard-deviation event to itsCoVaR under financial distress. We estimate the systemic risk contribution using 21 commercialbanks from January 2007 to December 2018. Our study reveals that the top five ranking systemicbanks are dominated by state-owned banks, and its ranking is consistently the same in the periodbefore, during, and after the global financial crisis. Finally, we empirically find that systemic riskin Indonesia is strongly affected by external factors rather than bank characteristics. Based on this finding, we suggest that the government should maintain the regulation of external effect rather than the domestic effect.

Page 11 of 18 | Total Record : 171

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