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Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics

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Published by Politeknik Statistika STIS

ISSN : 27721970 EISSN : 27721970 DOI : https://doi.org/10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2022i1

Core Subject : Economy, Humanities, Science, Social,

Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

prosiding seminar ini bertujuan untuk menghasilkan berbagai pemikiran solutif, inovatif, dan adaptif terkait isu, strategi, dan metode yang memanfaatkan official statistics

Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Statistik dan Probabilitas

Articles 729 Documents

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Peranan Sektor Industri Pengolahan dalam Perekonomian Provinsi Sulawesi Utara I Nyoman Pande Suputra
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2021 No 1 (2021): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2021
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Pemerintah berupaya untuk melakukan pemulihan ekonomi masyarakat terdampak Pandemi COVID-19. Sektor industri pengolahan sebagai sektor strategis diharapkan dapat mendukung pemulihan perekonomian. Penelitian ini menganalisis keterkaitan sektor industri pengolahan dengan sektor-sektor lain, mengidentifikasi sektor kunci dari sektor industri pengolahan, serta dampak permintaan akhir dengan menggunakan metode analisis Tabel Input-Output. Data yang digunakan adalah Tabel Input-Output Provinsi Sulawesi Utara Transaksi Domestik 2016 yang dimuktahiran ke 2020 dengan metode RAS. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian, sebagian besar sektor-sektor industri pengolahan memiliki kemampuan mendorong pertumbuhan produksi sektor-sektor lain yang menggunakan inputnya. Sementara itu, hanya sektor industri makanan dan minuman yang peka pada perubahan permintaan akhir. Hal ini menunjukkan sektor industri makanan dan minuman adalah sektor kunci. Dari angka pengganda output yang dihasilkan, kenaikan 1 rupiah permintaan akhir sektor industri makanan dan minuman akan menyebabkan kenaikan output seluruh sektor sebesar 1,6754 rupiah. Kenaikan permintaan akhir pada sektor ini berdampak pada peningkatan output dan NTB yang lebih besar.

Permintaan Pariwisata Indonesia dari Tujuh Negara ASEAN Tahun 2005-2019 Madeline Elfriede Pasaribu; Atik Maratis Suhartini
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2021 No 1 (2021): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2021
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

The tourism sector in Indonesia has considerable influence due to this sector as core economy, has enough high multiplier effect and its role as an invisible export. This sector is able to contribute more than 4 percent of income to national GDP and the foreign exchange that tends to increase. ASEAN region is one of the regions that brings most foreign tourists to Indonesia with positive trend during 2005-2019 period, but its growth fluctuative. This paper aims to analyze variables that influences tourism demand from ASEAN due to proximity in historical and geographical. Panel data regression analysis using FEM SUR estimation method shows that per capita income, oil prices and trade openness have a significant effect on increasing tourism demand from seven ASEAN countries to Indonesia. Meanwhile, the relative price has no significant effect on the tourism demand.

Diversifikasi Pasar dan Daya Saing Ekspor Produk Olahan Kopi Indonesia ke Negara Emerging Market Terpilih Mukhlisul Amal Mustofa; Achmad Syahrul Choir
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2021 No 1 (2021): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2021
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Coffee exports in Indonesia are still dominated by coffee beans, but the export value has decreased. In contrast, exports of Indonesian Coffee Products (POKI) tend to increase during 2015-2019. However, POKI's exports are still dominated by one country, namely the Philippines, so its exports are greatly affected by the condition of that country. This causes POKI exports to be vulnerable to instability. Therefore, it is necessary to diversify the market for POKI exports. This study analyzes the level of diversification of POKI's export market and its export competitiveness to several emerging market countries for diversification purposes during 2010-2019. The measures used are Hirschman Index, Revealed Comparative Advantage, Export Product Dynamic, and X-Model. As a result, POKI's export market diversification in aggregate has not been good enough.The competitiveness of POKI's exports to several emerging market destination countries is quite good with a strategic position. The results of the X-model, obtained five countries that can optimistically become the destination of diversification.

M-quantile Chambers-Dunstan Untuk Pendugaan Area Kecil Aldi Rochman Nulkarim; Ika Yuni Wulansari
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2021 No 1 (2021): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2021
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

The Small Area Estimations (SAE) method is used as a reliable approach in overcoming sample insufficiency problem in sample surveys. BPS produces small area statistics using popular SAE methods such as Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Prediction in Fay-Herriot (EBLUP-FH) model. The EBLUP-FH method is a parametric approach that requires the assumption of normality and is free from outliers on the random effect. However, it is difficult to satisfy because real data often behave in extreme ways. The SAE M-quantile Chambers-Dunstan (CD) method relaxes parametric assumptions and is robust to outliers. This study examines M-quantile CD method in increasing robustness of small area estimation through its application to real data in estimating average household expenditure per capita at sub-district level in DI Yogyakarta 2018. This study uses Susenas and Podes data in 2018. The result shows that M-quantile CD succeeds in improving the precision of EBLUP-FH. By implementing M-quantile CD, it is expected that the estimation of extreme data is more accurate for local area policymaking.

Pemodelan Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR) untuk Menganalisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Jumlah Kasus Baru HIV/AIDS di Pulau Jawa Tahun 2019 Rifal Miju; Achmad Prasetyo
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2021 No 1 (2021): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2021
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

One of the problems in the health sector is the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The country of Indonesia itself is in the 5th most at risk of HIV/AIDS in the Asian continent (Ministry of Health of the Republic of Indonesia, 2013). The island of Java as the area with the highest number of cases with a population of about 56 percent of the total population of Indonesia. The purposes of this study are to find out the general description of the distribution of HIV/AIDS in Java and to identify the influencing factors by considering the effect of regional proximity. The results of the analysis show that the distribution of the number of HIV/AIDS cases is relatively clustered between regions that have high and low number of cases, this indicates a spatial effect between regions. Then the GWNBR shows that there are differences in the significance of the variables in each region and forms 9 groups of regency/municipality based on the significant variables.

Penerapan Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) Terhadap Data Tidak Seimbang Pada Tingkat Pendapatan Pekerja Informal Di Provinsi D.I. Yogyakarta Tahun 2019 Sabiq Sofyan; Achmad Prasetyo
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2021 No 1 (2021): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2021
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Employment is one of the problems of every developing country, including Indonesia. Job creation is a very important issue for economic development. The Province of the Special Region of Yogyakarta is a province that is quite successful in overcoming labor problems with the third highest TPAK after Bali and Papua in 2018 with a percentage of TPAK that has tended to be stable since 2015. However, it turns out that the percentage of poor people who work in the informal sector in Yogyakarta is very large, reaching 44.97%. , almost half of the total. The income level of workers in the informal sector is much lower than that of workers in the formal sector. Data on the income level of informal workers was identified as unbalanced data because the comparison between workers with low and non-low incomes was very unequal. Therefore, the SMOTE method is used to overcome the problem of unbalanced data. The classification method used in this study is binary logistic regression. This study aims to determine the variables that affect the income level of informal workers and compare the models before and after SMOTE to get the best classification model. The results of the model evaluation show that the model after SMOTE is better at classifying the income level of informal workers. Furthermore, the variables that affect the income level of informal workers are classification of residence, gender, marital status, job training, education level, business field, age, and working hours..

Determinan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Wilayah Pengembangan Jawa Barat Tahun 2014-2018 dengan Pendekatan Regresi Panel Spasial Dian Noviyanti
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2021 No 1 (2021): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2021
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Regional development is an effort to achieve balanced development by fulfilling development potentials according to the various regional/regional capacities. The concept of development with a regional dimension in West Java Province is applied through the division of six development areas (WP). Aspects that affect the economic growth of each WP need to be known as the basis for formulating a development strategy. This study aims to analyze the factors that influence the economic development of West Java WP. Data analysis of this study used the Geographically Weighted Panel Regression (GWPR) method. The determinants of economic growth were examined using the independent variable (X): agricultural GRDP (gross regional domestic product), gross fixed capital formation (PMTB), average length of schooling (RLS), and number of puskesmas. The final result of the study shows that the factors that influence the economic growth of each WP are: agricultural GRDP, PMTB, RLS, puskesmas (WP Bodebekpunjur); Agricultural GRDP, PMTB, puskesmas (WP Purwasuka), agricultural GRDP, PMTB (WP Ciayumajakuning, Priatim-Pangandaran, KK Bandung Basin), and agricultural GRDP, PMTB, RLS (WP Sukabumi).

Risiko Kematian Pasien Covid-19 dan Faktor yang Memengaruhinya Margareth Dwiyanti Simatupang; I Made Arcana
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2021 No 1 (2021): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2021
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

The number of cases of Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) in Indonesia has increased, which the percentage of increasing the number of cases in Sumatra is relatively higher than cases at national level. The rapid spreading of Covid-19 has affected to increasing the number of people being infected and died of Covid-19. This study aims to determine the characteristics of survival status of Covid-19 patients and factors affecting their death risk. The research was conducted at H. Adam Malik Hospital, as a referral hospital for Covid-19 patients, and an educational hospital. The research data was obtained from recording of the medical condition of Covid-19 patients in the period of March-October 2020. The statistical method used for data analysis was survival model, particularly the proportional hazard model applying the exponential distribution. The analysis results showed that Covid-19 patients with higher death risk occurred to male patients, having symptoms of dyspnea, comorbidities, and high severity.

Pemodelan Kemiskinan di Sumatera Utara Menggunakan Regresi Nonparametrik Kernel dan Splines Hasrat Ifolala Zebua
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2021 No 1 (2021): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2021
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

The Sustainable Development Goals' main goal is to reduce poverty (SDGs). Low human capital is the cause of poverty. The Human Development Index is one indicator that can be used to assess human capital (HDI). Despite having the largest population on the island of Sumatra, North Sumatra continues to have the fifth highest poverty rate. Because it is flexible and can model data at different levels, this study aims to model poverty with factors that influence it, namely HDI in North Sumatra using nonparametric regression and quantile regression. Kernel regression and smoothing splines are the nonparametric regression techniques used in this study. The optimal bandwidth of the gaussian kernel function with NWE was 2.13512 with GCV 11.78793, modeling with smoothing splines produced an optimal smoothing parameter value of 0.00544 with GCV 47.29301, and modeling with quantile regression smoothing splines produced an optimal smoothing parameter value of 0.11 with a GCV of 3.81497. The smoothing splines quantile regression method is the best method, according to the results of the model comparison, because it has a regression curve that follows the distribution of data relationships and lower GCV and RMSE values.

Prediksi Jumlah Pasien Positif Covid-19 Di Indonesia Menggunakan Model Berbasis Spasio Temporal GSTAR Orde Satu Maisuri Maisuri; Asrirawan Asrirawan; Ahmad Ansar
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2021 No 1 (2021): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2021
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a pandemic disease that has not been previously identified in humans. The virus that causes COVID-19 is called Sars-CoV-2. And this corona virus is zoonotic (transmitted between animals and humans). The spread of COVID-19 can be through droplets (small particles) when someone talks or sneezes, air, and contaminated surfaces. So that the main factors causing the increase in COVID-19 include increased movement, activity, and interaction of the population, such as activities in public transportation and the workplace, then the new variant factor of COVID-19 and the linkage in the previous time. The process of spreading from one location to another (transmission) involves a spatial process. The COVID-19 time series data can be modeled with the spatio-temporal-based GSTAR model on 3 islands in Indonesia, namely Java Island and Sulawesi Island. The weight used in this study is the inverse distance weight with the appropriate GSTAR model being GSTAR (1,1). The forecast level of the GSTAR model for all testing and training data with Inverse Distance weights which has the smallest RMSE is in the GSTAR model for Location Java, which is 0.40255. Meanwhile, the forecast for the GSTAR model which has the largest RMSE value is Sulawesi Island, which is 1.616303.

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Home Page

OAI Link

Editorial Team

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Reviewer

Google Scholar

Contact Name Rani Nooraeni

Contact Email raninoor@stis.ac.id

Phone +6221-8191437

Journal Mail Official semnas@stis.ac.id

Editorial Address https://prosiding.stis.ac.id/index.php/semnasoffstat/about/contact

Location Kota adm. jakarta timur, Dki jakarta INDONESIA

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Contact Name
Rani Nooraeni

Contact Email
raninoor@stis.ac.id

Phone
+6221-8191437

Journal Mail Official
semnas@stis.ac.id

Editorial Address
https://prosiding.stis.ac.id/index.php/semnasoffstat/about/contact

Location
Kota adm. jakarta timur,

Dki jakarta

INDONESIA