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Contemporary Studies in Economic, Finance and Banking (CSEFB)
Published by Universitas Brawijaya
ISSN : -     EISSN : 29633303     DOI : 10.21776/ub.csefb
Core Subject : Economy, Social,
Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences
Publish all forms of quantitative and qualitative research articles as well as other scientific studies related to the fields of Economics, Finance, and Banking.
Arjuna Subject : Ilmu Ekonomi, Ekonometrika dan Keuangan (semua kategori) - Ilmu Ekonomi, Ekonometrika dan Keuangan (Lain-Lain)
Articles 20 Documents
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Search results for , issue "vol. 5 no. 3 (2026)" : 20 Documents clear
The Appplication of ARMAX-GARCH in Forecasting the Stock Return Volatility of Indonesian Banking Sector: A Case of BBCA and BBRI Ilyas, Muhamad; Wulandari Pangestuty, Farah
Contemporary Studies in Economic, Finance and Banking Vol. 5 No. 3 (2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

The volatility of stock returns in Indonesia's banking sector has become a primary concern for investors and regulators, especially amid market uncertainty. Previous studies have been limited in integrating external factors such as trading volume and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in volatility forecasting. This study evaluates the effectiveness of the ARMAX-GARCH model in capturing the volatility patterns of stock returns while considering these external factors. Using stock data from BBCA and BBRI for the period 2019–2024, this research examines market efficiency as well as the relationship between returns, volatility, and trading volume. The analysis results show that Indonesia's banking stock market is not fully efficient in the weak form, meaning that historical information can still be used to predict returns. Additionally, the ARMAX-GARCH model demonstrates good accuracy in short-term forecasting, with low RMSE and MAE values. These findings provide insights for investors and regulators in developing more adaptive risk mitigation strategies and investment decision-making.
The Effects of Bank Performance on Bank Profitability in Indonesia for the 2010-2022 Period musfikar, afriyaldi; Fazaalloh, S.E., M.E., Ph.D., Al Muizzuddin
Contemporary Studies in Economic, Finance and Banking Vol. 5 No. 3 (2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of banking performance on banking profitability in Indonesia during the period 2010–2022. The banking performance variables used in this research include Total Assets (TA), Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Non-Performing Loans (NPL), Net Interest Margin (NIM), and Operational Expenses to Operating Income (BOPO). Banking profitability is measured using Return on Assets (ROA). This study employs panel data from four of the largest commercial banks in Indonesia, namely BCA, BRI, Mandiri, and BNI, using panel data regression analysis. The regression model selection was based on the Hausman Test, which identified the Random Effect Model (REM) as the most suitable.The results show that, simultaneously, the five independent variables have a significant effect on ROA. Partially, NIM has a positive and significant effect on ROA, while BOPO and CAR have a negative and significant effect. Meanwhile, Total Assets and NPL do not have a significant effect on ROA. The R-squared value of 93.29% indicates that the model is able to strongly explain the variation in ROA. These findings suggest that operational efficiency and the optimization of interest income are important factors in enhancing banking profitability. Keywords: Total Aset, CAR, NPL, NIM, dan BOPO, terhadap ROA.
Determinants of Banks’ Stock Prices: A Study of Core Capital Group 4 (KBMI 4) Banks Samudra, Mohamad Rizky; Pimada, Laila Masruro
Contemporary Studies in Economic, Finance and Banking Vol. 5 No. 3 (2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

This study analyzes the factors influencing stock prices of the largest banks in Indonesia classified under KBMI 4, namely Bank Mandiri, Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI), Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI), and Bank Central Asia (BCA). Stock price fluctuations that are not always aligned with fundamental performance indicate a gap in understanding the determinants of banking stock prices. This research examines the effects of internal fundamental factors, namely return on assets (ROA), earnings per share (EPS), price to book value (PBV), and debt to equity ratio (DER), as well as macroeconomic variables, including gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation, Bank Indonesia’s policy interest rate, and the exchange rate, on stock prices during the period 2009–2024. The analysis employs a panel data regression approach. The results show that price to book value (PBV) and the exchange rate have a positive and significant effect on the stock prices of KBMI 4 banks, while debt to equity ratio (DER) and earnings per share (EPS) have a significant negative effect. Meanwhile, return on assets (ROA), gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, and the interest rate do not have a significant effect. These findings indicate that market valuation and exchange rate dynamics are the primary factors driving banking stock prices in Indonesia.
Geopolitical Risk, Economic Uncertainty dan Climate Uncertainty: Implikasi terhadap kinerja saham IDX ESG Leaders Salma, Sherika; Kornitasari, Yenny
Contemporary Studies in Economic, Finance and Banking Vol. 5 No. 3 (2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

Growing concern about climate change and global uncertainty have generated several green investment, including ESG stocks. This study explore the asymmetric and nonlinear effect of geopolitical risk (GPR), economic policy uncertainty (EPU), and climate policy uncertainty (CPU) on Indonesian ESG stocks index (IDX ESG Leader) by using Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach. The result shows that GPR, EPU, and CPU negatively affect IDXESGL in short term. Futhermore, in long term EPU still has negative impact but GPR and CPU have positive impact on IDXESGL performance. The findings suggest Indonesian governance to increase effectiveness and eficiency of regulation to minimize EPU transmission in stock market. Beside, investor and firms can use ESG stock as safe heaven asset on their long-term investment again geopolitical risk and climate uncertainty.
Analysis of Factors Influencing the Performance of Fixed-Income Mutual Funds Lingga Pramesti, Devi; Mega Paksi, Girindra
Contemporary Studies in Economic, Finance and Banking Vol. 5 No. 3 (2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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Mutual funds have become one of the increasingly popular investment instruments as they offer convenience, flexibility, as well as the potential for more stable returns and lower risk compared to other investment instruments. The high level of investor interest in mutual funds has driven investment growth. This study aims to analyze the effect of Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), Expense Ratio, Asset Under Management (AUM), and Drawdown on the performance of fixed-income mutual funds, measured using the Sharpe Method. The sampling technique used is purposive sampling, resulting in 30 fixed-income mutual funds registered on the Bibit and Ajaib applications during the period of April 2024 – March 2025. The analytical technique used is Multiple Linear Regression Analysis. The research findings indicate that CAGR and Drawdown have a significant positive effect on the performance of fixed-income mutual funds, while Expense Ratio and AUM have no significant effect on their performance. Investors need to consider the factors that influence the performance of fixed-income mutual funds they wish to invest in and understand the objectives and risks involved to make better investment decisions.
Analysis of Economic Growth: The Implementation of Classical and Neo-Classical Economic Growth Theories Ahsan, Nur Muhammad; Maskie, Ghozali
Contemporary Studies in Economic, Finance and Banking Vol. 5 No. 3 (2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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This study aims to analyze the factors influencing economic growth in Java. The variables used in this study are population growth, inflation, workforce, and investment. This study uses classical and neo-classical economic growth theories. The scope of this study is Java, which consists of six provinces. The data analysis method used in this study is panel data regression. The number of samples used in this study was 36 samples. The results of the study indicate that the variables of population growth, workforce, and investment do not have a significant effect on economic growth. Meanwhile, the inflation variable has a significant effect on economic growth. Theoretically, the results of this study contradict classical and neo-classical economic growth theories. These findings indicate that quantity alone is not enough to drive economic growth and it is crucial to consider the quality aspects of productivity and efficiency. Practically, development policies should focus on improving the quality of human resources and the effectiveness of investment.
The Influence of NPL, Allowance for Impairment Losses, and Fee-Based Income on RoA in KBMI 4 Banks Atma, Delia Putri; Widiyanti, Dwi Retno
Contemporary Studies in Economic, Finance and Banking Vol. 5 No. 3 (2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

This study analyzes the effect of Non-Performing Loans (NPL), Loan Loss Provisions (CKPN), and Fee-Based Income (FBI) on Return on Assets (ROA) in KBMI 4 banks during 2019–2024. The research is motivated by the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which increased credit risk, loan loss provisions, and altered banks’ revenue structures. The study addresses a research gap by examining these three variables simultaneously in large-capital banks during crisis and recovery periods. Using a quantitative approach, this study employs secondary data from quarterly financial reports of KBMI 4 banks. Panel data regression with a Fixed Effect Model was selected based on the Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier tests. The results show that NPL has a negative and significant effect on ROA, indicating that credit risk remains a key determinant of bank profitability. Meanwhile, CKPN and FBI do not significantly affect ROA. These findings suggest that provisioning policies and income diversification have not optimally contributed to profitability in large banks during periods of economic uncertainty.  
Determinants of Financial Inclusion in West Java Rachma, Hafizhah; Indraswari, Citra Rahayu
Contemporary Studies in Economic, Finance and Banking Vol. 5 No. 3 (2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

West Java Province has significant economic potential, yet financial inclusion remains uneven across the region, particularly in terms of formal account ownership and access to credit. This study aims to examine the influence of demographic and digital factors on financial inclusion in West Java. The demographic factors analyzed include region, gender, age, education, and economic activity, while the digital factors cover mobile phone ownership and internet use. This study employs a quantitative approach using secondary data from the Survei Sosial Ekonomi Nasional (SUSENAS) 2024. Binary logistic regression analysis is applied to estimate the probability of both account ownership and credit access. The results indicate that account ownership is significantly influenced by gender, productive age, education, employment status, and the use of mobile phones and the internet, while region shows no significant effect. In contrast, access to credit is significantly affected by region, education, and internet use. These findings highlight the critical role of digital technology in expanding financial inclusion and suggest the need for targeted policies that consider specific social and regional characteristics.
Determining the Cumulative Initial Return of IPO Stocks: A Comparative Analysis of the Bagger and Non-Bagger Groups Puspitarini, Nectarina; Hascaryani, Tyas Danarti
Contemporary Studies in Economic, Finance and Banking Vol. 5 No. 3 (2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

Capital markets often exhibit anomalies in the form of extreme post-IPO price movements that are difficult to explain through conventional analysis. This study aims to analyze the determinants of Cumulative Initial Return (CIR) and differentiate the characteristics of financial signal influences between bagger and non-bagger stock groups on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2023-2025 period. Using a quantitative approach, 129 IPO companies were selected through purposive sampling. Analysis was conducted using multiple linear regression (OLS), the Chow Test, and interaction effects to identify the influence of fundamental variables and market indicators. The results show that fundamental factors (ROA, GPM, RG) and market indicators (initial return and offering share) significantly affect CIR, with striking differences in signal strength between the two groups. Bagger stocks exhibit a stronger response to profitability indicators and market momentum compared to non-bagger stocks. Therefore, investors should integrate fundamental and liquidity analysis to assess potential extreme returns and risks in emerging markets.
Inside Bank Lending: Financial Ratios and Monetary Variables Sabry, Mayra; Maski, Ghozali
Contemporary Studies in Economic, Finance and Banking Vol. 5 No. 3 (2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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This study examines the effects of internal banking factors and monetary variables on credit distribution of conventional commercial banks in Indonesia during 2018-2025. Internal factors include CAR, CKPN, COF, DPK, and LAR while monetary variables consist of inflation and the BI7DRR. Monthly time-series data from OJK and Bank Indonesia are analyzed using the Engle-Granger Error Correction Model (ECM) to capture short-run dynamics and long-run relationships. The results show that in the short run, CAR and CKPN negatively affect credit, while DPK has a positive and significant effect. In the long run, DPK, inflation, and BI7DRR significantly influence credit distribution, whereas other variables exhibit no consistent impact. These findings suggest that credit dynamics are shaped by both internal banking conditions and long-term monetary transmission mechanisms.

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