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Quantitative Economics Journal
Published by Universitas Negeri Medan
ISSN : 20897847     EISSN : 20897995     DOI : 10.24114
Core Subject : Economy,
Economics, Econometrics & Finance
This journal is contained with the articles that cover the economics area that derived from the research and engineering ideas that are quantitative. The viewers, authors and future authors that expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the Department of Economics, Post Graduate Program, State University of Medan
Arjuna Subject : Ilmu Ekonomi, Ekonometrika dan Keuangan (semua kategori) - Ilmu Ekonomi, Ekonometrika dan Keuangan (Lain-Lain)
Articles 205 Documents
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PERKIRAAN NILAI TAMBAH YANG HILANG PADA AGROINDUSTRI KAKAO INDONESIA Muhammad Basorudin
Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 7, No 3 (2018)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24114/qej.v7i3.17558

Abstract

As an agricultural country Indonesia has a lot of natural potential that can be used as export base, for example is cocoa. Unfortunately, most of the cocoa products are still exported in raw form. Even if,, Indonesia also imports cocoa in the form of seeds or in processed form. As a result, there are muchlost value added of cocoa. The lost value added of cocoa is measured by the difference between processed cocoa and raw cocoa exports. The loss of added value can actually become Indonesia's revenue potential. The purpose of this research is to lose the added value of Indonesian cocoa products during the period 20092018. In addition, the lost value added of cocoa is also forecasted until the end of 2018. The technique used to forecast is by ARIMA method. It estimates that lost value added of cocoa every month until December 2018. The increase in lost valueadded will give benefit for Indonesianif they can undertake theirs own processing of cocoa products and publishing them to the international market in the form of processed product. Therefore, it is necessary to start to develop alternatives such as the development of production-based agroindustries, especially on the concept of cocoa, and the application of One Village One Product (OVOP) concept in order to increase cocoa productivity and minimize domestic competition
ANALISIS DINAMIS KETERKAITAN VARIABEL YANG MEMPENGARUHI NERACA TRANSAKSI BERJALAN INDONESIA TAHUN 2012 Winta Ratna Sari
Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 1, No 2 (2012)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24114/qej.v1i2.17408

Abstract

This study was to analyze the contribution rate (the rupiah against the U.S. dollar), Libor Interest Rate, Inflation and Output Growth (GDP) of the current account balance in Indonesia. The data used in this study secondary data is sourced from Indonesia Financial Statistics. The data used is the data quarterly from the first quarter of 2000 up to 2010 fourth quarter. The results of the estimated Vector Autoregression (VAR) indicates that there is a relationship between the Current Account, Exchange Rate, Libor Interest Rate, Inflation and GDP at lag t-1. Impulse response function of the stability of the first note that all variables are in the long run that is over 5 years and tend to be stable. This means that in the short term variables that are used do not provide a meaningful contribution in the long term but will mutually contribute to each other. Variance Decomposition Based on these results, it is known that all variables contributed to the Current Account, but his greatest contribution is of the variable itself, this means that the current account tends to a variable receiving contributions rather than giving contributions
ANALISIS PERGESERAN SEKTOR PERTANIAN DI KABUPATEN LANGKAT PROVINSI SUMATERA UTARA Rahmanta Ginting
Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 3, No 3 (2014)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24114/qej.v3i3.17449

Abstract

Principally the sectoral shift and development in a region is a sustainable activityto realize a good condition collectively and continuously. The objective of thisresearch is to analyze the change and shift of agricultural sector to the localeconomic condition in Regency of Langkat. The data applied in this research issecondary data collected from any institution/organization related to the studiedproblem since 2007 up to 2012. The applied data analysis method is Shift Share Analysis. This method is applied to observe the economic structure and its shift by focus to sectoral development in region than the same one in the higher regional level or in national level. The results of research indicates that (a) agricultural sector is a sector with the bigger role in the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of Langkat regency, (b) the national share value for agricultural sector and industry with a rapid growth than the other sectors, (c) the value of differential shift, agricultural sector, industry, electricity and gas, building, transportation and financial is a sector with higher competitive or sector with the rapid shift growth than other sector, and (d) the results of shift share analysis indicates that there is development of GRDP for 93.50 percent.
EVALUASI MILLENIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS (MGDs) DALAM MENANGGULANGI KEMISKINAN DAN KELAPARAN MENUJU SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS (SGDs) DI KOTA MEDAN Dede Ruslan
Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 5, No 3 (2016)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24114/qej.v5i3.17487

Abstract

Program Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) have ended in 2015, Indonesia's commitment to achieve the MDGs is done by making the MDGs as a reference inpreparation of documents National Long-Term Development Plan (RPJPN) 2005-2025. To examine the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) must be evaluated how the condition of development gains in Medan via indicator Millienium Development Goals (MDGs) that specifically alleviate poverty and hunger (goal 1 MDGs) so it can be recommended several measurement programs that can affect target-setting achievements of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Medan. Data analysistechniques used to approach the quantitative approach, but in the scope of descriptive analysis by exploring the data in the form of tables and graphs. The results showed that the conditions of development gains in Medan via indicator Millienium Development Goals (MDGs) basically has been running well in which of the seven indicators that proclaimed the majority of activity has been reached.
Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Pajak Pertambahan Nilai dan Pajak Penjualan Atas Barang Mewah Di Indonesia Moraulina Marsella Simarmata
Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 7, No 1 (2018)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24114/qej.v7i1.17549

Abstract

PPN (Value-Added Tax) and PPnBM (Luxury Goods Sales Tax) are kind of taxesrecognized in Indonesia, and are classified into indirect tax which are imposed to the consumption in every level of production and distribution. As the taxes on consumption, PPN and PPnBM are highly dependent on the general economic condition. The indicators of macro economy may have influence on the revenues of PPN and PPnBM every year, and so is the amount of PKP (Taxable Entrepreneur) as PPN Collector according to the prevailing PPN Law. Therefore, the objective of the research was to find out how the amount of PKP, PDB, export value, import value, inflation, consumption expense, population and SBI interest rates influenced the revenues of PPN and PPnBM in Indonesia from 1986 until 2015. Ordinary Least Square method was applied for the analysis with multiple linear regression equation. The results showed that the amount of PKP, PDB, export value, import value, inflation, consumption expense, population and SBI interest rates simultaneously had a significant influence on the revenues of PPN and PPnBM in Indonesia. Partially, the amount of PKP, PDB, Export value, import value, consumption and population had positive influence on the revenues of PPN and PPnBM, whereas inflation and SBI interest rates had negative influence on the revenues of PPN and PPnBM in Indonesia.
INFLATION PERSISTENCE IN NORTH SUMATERA PROVINCE Wily Julitawaty
Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 3, No 1 (2014)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24114/qej.v3i1.17440

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to determine the persistence of inflation in major North Sumatera Province in 2007 until 2012 and value contributed Output Growth  (GDP) of North Sumatera, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate and Error Correction Term about Inflation in North Sumatera. Data is used secondary data from general Consumer Price Index  (CPI) from North Sumatera Province include Medan, Pematangsiantar, Sibolga and Padangsidempuan monthly of January 2007 until December 2012. And secondary data Consumer Price Index  (CPI) of North Sumatera Province, Gross Domestic Product of  Province Sumatera Utara, Exchange Rate and Interest Rate of BI Rate yearly of 1999 until 2012. Model is used model econometric with Autoregressive method and Error Correction Model. Result of this research with estimation of  VAR model concludes that degree of persistence of 4 town from North Sumatera Province is low. Result of estimation of model ECM concludes that Interest Rate significantly affect to inflation rate, while Gross Domestic Product of  North Sumatera Province and Exchange Rate not significantly affect to inflation rate. While ECT becomes significant correction to variable inflation rate. Where the form of error correction in the ECM suggests a long-term relationship between the variables inflation, GDP variable, the variable exchange rate and variable interest rate is comparable.
ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI RETURN SAHAM KONSTRUKSI BUMN DENGAN REGRESI PANEL DINAMIS Lisa Dwi Ardianti
Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 5, No 1 (2016)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24114/qej.v5i1.17478

Abstract

This study aims to determine the factors that affect stock returns in the Indonesian state-owned construction period January 2013 to December 2015. The variables used were trading volume, market capitalization, inflation, exchange rate and government policy. The data in this research is secondary data obtained from the publication of the Central Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Commerce and the Indonesia Stock Exchange. This study uses a dynamic panel regression by the method of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The results showed that lagged stock returns, trading volume at this time and the exchange rate at the moment significant negative effect on stock returns. While the market capitalization in the current and prior periods and inflation at the moment and the two previous period significant positive effect on stock returns. Besides the government's policy affect to state-owned construction stock returns where policies are made in the era of President Joko Widodo more influence smaller than the policy made during the leadership of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.
THE INFLUENCE OF TOURISM SECTOR AND TRADE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA Sipahutar, Tetty Tiurma Uli
Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 8, No 2 (2019)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24114/qej.v8i2.19933

Abstract

The results showed some conclusions: (i) in the long term that the variables of tourism foreign exchange and net exports positive and significant impact. Dummy variables and the exchange rate and no significant positive effect. (ii) in the short term that the variables of tourism foreign exchange and net exports positive and significant impact. And a dummy variable exchange rate and no significant positive effect. (iii) of the coefficient of determination (R2) showed that the variables studied could explain the long-term and short-term equal to 94.01 percent, while the remaining 5.99 percent is explained by variables out of models (which was not studied).
ANALISIS DETERMINAN EKSPOR PROVINSI SUMATERA UTARA: PENDEKATAN GRAVITY MODEL Efori Telaumbanua
Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 2, No 2 (2013)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24114/qej.v2i2.17431

Abstract

Export Growth has been being one of important component in enhancing of economic growth of North Sumatera Province. During 2005-2010, the average growth of export rate of North Sumatera Province is 16,5 percent per year with 5,23 percent per year the average of it’s contribution to growth. The aim of this research is to detect the factors which affect the enhancement of export rate of North Sumatera Province during 2005-2010. With augmented gravity model approach, this research analyzes the effect of gross domestic product percapita rate and the population of each trading partner countries, geographical distance between North Sumatera Province and every trading partner countries, foreign direct investment and real effective exchange rate of North Sumatera Province, to the export rate of North Sumatera Province to every trading countries, such as United States of America, Netherland, China, India, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Egypt, Singapore, and Ukraine. By using random effect model in pooled data processing, the result of this research describes that the gross domestic product percapita and the population of each trading partner countries affect positively and significantly to the export rate of North Sumatera Province. As well as foreign direct investment rate and real effective exchange rate of North Sumatera Province show the positive and significant effect. Whereas, geographical distance as the trade barrier, correlate negatively and significantly to the export rate of North Sumatera Province.
ANALISIS SEKTOR BASIS DAN KONTRIBUSI SEKTOR PERTANIAN TERHADAP PRODUK DOMESTIK REGIONAL BRUTO DI KABUPATEN DAIRI Rahmanta Ginting
Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 4, No 2 (2015)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Medan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24114/qej.v4i2.17466

Abstract

The agriculture sector is one sector of the economy given a priority in regional development, it’s because most of the population dependent on the sector and asource of income for the majority of the population, thus it’s no wrong if theagriculture sector serves as a support the regional development. The agriculture sector in the district Dairi consists of food crops and horticulture, plantation,animal husbandry, foresty, and fishery. Therefore, the purpose of this study is toanalyze the basis sector and agriculture sector contribution to the gross regionaldomestic product in the district Dairi. This study uses secondary data sourcedform of time series data from 2009 – 2013. The analysis model is a LocationQuotient (LQ) and sector contribution to gross regional domestic product in district Dairi. The result showed that the agriculture sector and the services is abasis sector or have a high role in a local economy. It is characterized by LQ isgreather than one, while other sectors are non basis sector because it has a LQ value smaller than one. In 2013, the agriculture sector provides the largestcontribution in gross regional domestic product structure in the district Dairi is58,47%.

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