Quantitative Economics Journal
This journal is contained with the articles that cover the economics area that derived from the research and engineering ideas that are quantitative. The viewers, authors and future authors that expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the Department of Economics, Post Graduate Program, State University of Medan
Articles
205 Documents
<![CDATA[ANALISIS KEUNTUNGAN USAHATANI KELAPA DI KECAMATAN PADANGSIDIMPUAN BATUNADUA ]]>
<![CDATA[Faisal Rahman Dongoran]]>
<![CDATA[ Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 1, No 4 (2012) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Universitas Negeri Medan ]]>
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DOI: 10.24114/qej.v1i4.17413
<![CDATA[As a traditional crop, coconut is a versatile plant (tree of life) and has an economic value that is good enough to be developed particularly in the context of community economic development. This study aims to determine the effect of input variables X1 (Wide Land), X2 (Labor Costs), and X3 (Cost Fertilizer) against the benefits of coconut farm in the district Padangsidimpuan Batunadua. Analytical model used is the Cobb-Douglas profit function with the help of Eviews v5.1 application.The results showed that simultaneous variables X1, X2, and X3 affect the benefits of coconut farm with F-stat is 1728,765. partially each variable as: X1 shows a positive and significant impact on profits by ilai tcount 53.811 and Prob. Of 0.000., X2 showed positive and significant influence on profits by the value of 21.503 tcount and Prob. Of 0.000., and X3 shows a negative influence to the value of -2.511 tcount and Prob. Of 0.0138. Furthermore, from the obtained values for the regression coefficient of 0.9834 X1 means any addition of land area per ha will increase the gain of 0.9864 rupiah per Ha, X2 of 0.9757 means that any additional labor costs / yields would increase the profit of 0.9575 rupiah and -0.0651 for X3 which means every addition 1 rupiah of fertilizer costs will reduce profits 0,0651 rupiah. From the analysis it can be concluded, that the coconut farm production and profits in Kecataman Padangsidimpuan Batunadua still can be improved by optimizing the use of variable inputs of fertilizer and land.]]>
<![CDATA[THE IMPACT OF FREE TRADE BETWEEN ASEAN AND CHINA ON THE INDONESIAN HOUSEHOLDS ]]>
<![CDATA[Indra Maipita]]>
<![CDATA[ Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 3, No 2 (2014) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Universitas Negeri Medan ]]>
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DOI: 10.24114/qej.v3i2.17444
<![CDATA[Free trade agreement between ASEAN and China was executed in early 2010. Various types of trade tariffs have been removed or lowered to support the agreement which may lead to changes in the welfare of Indonesian households. This research tries to find out the impact of ASEAN-China free trade agreement on the welfare of households in Indonesia. The model used for this analysis is AGEFIS model, a Computable General Equilibrium model of Indonesian economy. The findings of this research show that the free trade between ASEAN and China increases the level of economic activity. Various macroeconomic indicators such as output and exports increase relative to the output prior to the free trade agreement. Income of urban households rise but rural households are adversely affected. Skilled-workers benefits more than unskilled ones.]]>
<![CDATA[FINANCIAL DEEPENING AND INTEREST RATE RELATIONSHIP IN FACING THE ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY 2015: VECM AND PANEL DATA APPROACH ]]>
<![CDATA[Lukman Hakim]]>
<![CDATA[ Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 5, No 2 (2016) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Universitas Negeri Medan ]]>
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DOI: 10.24114/qej.v5i2.17482
<![CDATA[The relationship of the financial deepening to the interest rate has become an important study for the Southeast Asia countries, especially preparation forentering the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) in 2015. This study will explore the effect of interest rates on deposits and credit to the financial deepening in ASEAN 5. By using VECM showed that Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore possessed a similar pattern where lending rates negatively affect financial deepening, while the deposit rate positive effect. In contrast to Malaysia and Thailand, deposit rates had a negative impact on financial depth, while the loan interest rate was positive. Meanwhile, using panel data for the ASEAN 5 showed that the effect of interest rates on loans to the depth of the financial sector is negative, whereas the effect of deposit rate was positive]]>
<![CDATA[ANALISIS KETIMPANGAN DISTRIBUSI PENDAPATAN DI KABUPATEN TAPANULI UTARA ]]>
<![CDATA[Kijo Sinaga]]>
<![CDATA[ Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 2, No 3 (2013) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Universitas Negeri Medan ]]>
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DOI: 10.24114/qej.v2i3.17435
<![CDATA[The distribution of income is related to the discrepancy of research aims to study the discrepancy level of income distribution at North Tapanuli Regency, to study the Kuznets hypothesis about “Reverse-U Curve”, to study the influence of economic growth rate, inflation and rate of open unemployment to the discrepancy level. Theresult of research indicates that the average percentage of the increasing of GRDP based on the basic price in North Tapanuli for 2000-2010 is 14,59 %. The average of inflation rate is high for 8,72. The average of open unemployment rate is 3,027 %. The Gini Ratio for North Tapanuli is less than 0,3. This indicates that the score less than 0,3 means the income is distributed evenly. The Reverse-U Curve because requirement of the square equation did not applied at North Tapanuli regency in 2000-2010. Based on estimation, the score of R2 is 0,336. F-calculated (0,336) is smaller than F-test (18,77) means that simultaneously the gross domestic product, inflation and the open unemployment rate did not influence the discrepancy of income distribution. The gross regional domestic product has not a significant influence to the discrepancy of income distribution at North Tapanuli regency. Inflation has not a significant influence to discrepancy of income distribution. The open unemployment rate has not a significant influence to the discrepancy of income distribution at North Tapanuli Utara Regency.]]>
<![CDATA[NALISIS REPLIKASI PROGRAM PENANGGULANGAN KEMISKINAN MANDIRI PERKOTAAN ]]>
<![CDATA[Dede Ruslan]]>
<![CDATA[ Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 4, No 3 (2015) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Universitas Negeri Medan ]]>
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DOI: 10.24114/qej.v4i3.17471
<![CDATA[PNPM urban areas, is one of the programs implemented to address the problem for the poverty in the city of Medan. On the other hand, the Medan City Government task and function in terms of governance and service to the community. Medan city government administration as a subsystem of state government intended to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of governance and public service. In this paper uses methodologi of research with replication paradigm formulated to clarify the terminology and functions. Paradigm consists of four main types of replication, the retesting (retest), internal, independent, and theoretical. Our findings show that PNPM Urban general in Medan has been carrying out his duties as well as possible to achieve the program's objectives, namely increasing prosperity and employment opportunities of the poor independently. So Pemko field needs to appreciate the Poverty Reduction program conducted jointly by the PNPM Urban. Therefore Medan City Government is expected to continue to support PNPM Urban program to resume some previous policies and alignment with the results of the evaluation and field conditions. As a token of appreciation Pemko field against Poverty Program conducted by PNPM Urban Terrain pemko need to replicate the program PNPM Urban in poverty reduction as outlined in the remainder of the Regional Poverty Reduction Strategy.]]>
<![CDATA[PENGARUH GINI RATIO, PDRB PERKAPITA DAN TINGKAT INFLASI TERHADAP TINGKAT KEMISKINAN DI PROVINSI SUMATERA UTARA ]]>
<![CDATA[Hastina Febriaty]]>
<![CDATA[ Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 6, No 3 (2017) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Universitas Negeri Medan ]]>
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DOI: 10.24114/qej.v6i3.17544
<![CDATA[Poverty is a living condition that is in shortage experienced by a person or household so as not being able to meet the minimal or decent needs for his life. And poverty is a social problem that is always present in the midst of society.In this research discusses the influence of Gini Ratio, Per Capita GDP and Inflation Rate to Poverty Level in North Sumatera Province. The purpose of this research is to know the influence of Gini Ratio, PDRB / Kapita and Inflation rate to poverty level in North Sumatera province, partially and simultaneously, and the dominant influence variable to poverty level in North Sumatera Province. Sources of data used are secondary data taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics and Bank of Indonesia from 2001 to 2016.Teknik analysis used in this research is multiple linear regression analysis using e-views program 8.1 and perform testing classical assumptions and using hypothesis testing simultaneously (F) and partial (t). The results showed that partially Gini Ratio and PDRB / Kapita have negative and significant effect to poverty level in North Sumatera Province while inflation rate have positive and insignificant effect to poverty level in North Sumatera Province simultaneously Gini Ratio, PDRB Perkapita and inflation rate have significant effect of poverty level in North Sumatera Province.]]>
<![CDATA[ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF INFLATION, INTEREST RATE, THE MONEY SUPPLY ON RUPIAH EXCHANGE RATE PERIOD 1996-2014 ]]>
<![CDATA[Siregar, Novrida]]>
<![CDATA[ Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 8, No 1 (2019) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Universitas Negeri Medan ]]>
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DOI: 10.24114/qej.v8i1.19927
<![CDATA[The data source is from Bank Indonesia (BI), the result of this research shows that the domestic inflation has a significant positive influence to rupiah exchange rate toword American Dollar, and cash rate ratio has a negative influence to Rupiah exchange rate with American Dollar, while overseas inflation, domestic interest rate , overseas interest rate they do not have significant influence toword Rupiah exchange rate with American Dollar. From the determination coefficient result (R2) show that the subject which has been researched can explain 93,11 percent toword Rupiah exchange rate while the rest 3,89 percent can be explained by other subject out of model.]]>
<![CDATA[ANALISIS TENAGA KERJA SEKTOR INFORMAL SEBAGAI KATUP PENGAMAN MASALAH TENAGA KERJA DI KOTA MEDAN ]]>
<![CDATA[Anggiat Sinaga]]>
<![CDATA[ Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 2, No 1 (2013) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Universitas Negeri Medan ]]>
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DOI: 10.24114/qej.v2i1.17425
<![CDATA[The number of workers in the informal sector makes an effort to raise revenue under the layer groups face many difficulties. This study aims to determine how the effect of working capital, wages, level of education and business experience to the problems of Informal Workers in the informal sector workers in the city of Medan. The research method in this study is a quantitative method by using Eviews 4.1, where data collection using questionnaire and statistical data. Population and sample are people who work as informal workers with a sample of 100 people. The results indicated that most respondents Venture Capital is the amount of capital of Rp. 500,000 - Rp. 1000.000,. ie 66 respondents or 66%. Being categorized. Most respondents wage is a wage of Rp. 500,000 - Rp. 1000.000,. ie 67 respondents or 67% and categorized as Moderate. The level of education is not the most widely School - SD of 55 respondents or 55%. Low categorized. Simultaneously by venture capital variables (X1), wages (X2), Education (X3) and business experience (X4) effect on labor issues by 91.25%. Conclusion is venture capital variable (X1), wages (X2), Education (X3) and business experience (X4) effect on labor issues. It is recommended that efforts need to be more concrete than the government and partners to help the Venture Capital community. The need to support the various parties to pay more attention to the welfare of informal sector employment, especially in terms of education, socialization of labor law.]]>
<![CDATA[STRATEGI HEDGING PADA PENGELOLAAN HUTANG LUAR-NEGERI PEMERINTAH INDONESIA TERHADAP RESIKO FLUKTUASI NILAI TUKAR US DOLLAR ]]>
<![CDATA[Mrs Miksalmina]]>
<![CDATA[ Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 4, No 1 (2015) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Universitas Negeri Medan ]]>
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DOI: 10.24114/qej.v4i1.17461
<![CDATA[During this time, the position of External Debt (ED) government has always had the exposure risk from a fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates to USDollar. Usually, the ED values to swell because of the risk of weakening of the Rupiah against the USDollar. This study aims to look at the effectiveness of hedging strategies on the management of the government's foreign debt of Indonesia to the risk of exchange rate fluctuations of US dollar, by making a simulation of hedging forward contracts. A hedging strategy with a new forward contract will be executed if the rate exceeds Rp 10,000 per USDollar as psychological level. In this simulation, the Government applied a hedging strategy by purchasing forward contracts. This purchasing strategy will generate profits only when the values of forward contracts of USD / IDR weakened at the maturity date later. But if the opposite happens, then potential losses will occur. To minimize the potential loss, wee need this necessary analysis of historical and technical movement of the rupiah against the USDollar, followed by mechanisms of active trading. Active trading allows the government took the position prior purchases or sales in forward contracts advance, depending on the signal and market trends that occurred at that time. By hedging forward contracts, the resulting changes in the value of external debt on the simulation type 2 is much lower. In other words, it shows that the real strengthening of the rupiah with hedging strategies can ease the burden of official external debt, so it can be quite effective to reduce the external debt burden of the government when the time payment or maturity date is come.]]>
<![CDATA[KONSTRUKSI INDEKS KESTABILAN SISTEM KEUANGAN INDONESIA ]]>
<![CDATA[Anhar Fauzan Priyono]]>
<![CDATA[ Quantitative Economics Journal Vol 6, No 1 (2017) ]]>
Publisher : <![CDATA[Universitas Negeri Medan ]]>
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DOI: 10.24114/qej.v6i1.17535
<![CDATA[Financial system stability is necessary to ensure a sustainable economic development. It undertakes 3 major functions: (i) payment system, (ii) financial intermediation, and (iii) managing risk. Data showed that the Indonesian economy experienced a negative correction in the event of financial instability, e.g bank panic in 1992, Asian financial crisis (1997), and Sub-prime mortgage crisis (2008). Therefore, it is necessary in having a method of financial stability index measurement, which in turn can be used to predict the direction of future financial stability. This research was conducted in order to provide an option incalculating the index of financial stability of Indonesia by two methods, namelyAggregation with Variance Equal Weight with Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The results show that the trend of Indonesian financial stability index which constructed through these two techniques have similar trend with a different magnitude. PCA method was employed in making reductions on variable dimensions without losing the information on the movement of the variable’s variation. There are four sectors to be included in the index. Those four sectors are banking sector, money market sector, capital market sector,and monetary sector. We found that the contribution of the financial performance of banks in Indonesia and the interest rate is the highest among other sector to the Indonesia financial stability.]]>
