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All Journal Jurnal Pertahanan dan Bela Negara International Journal of Applied Mathematics, Sciences, and Technology for National Defense
Surachman Surjaatmadja
Indonesia Defense University
Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Mathematics Physics Social Sciences Other

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Pandemic shock and regional economic resilience in Indonesia: A linear mixed model Novalia; Bima Ramadhan; Kenny Candra Pradana; Ahmad Naqiyuddin Bakar; Surachman Surjaatmadja
International Journal of Applied Mathematics, Sciences, and Technology for National Defense Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026): International Journal of Applied Mathematics, Sciences, and Technology for Nati
Publisher : FoundAE

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58524/app.sci.def.v4i1.1043

Abstract

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has emerged as a major non-traditional security threat, generating substantial economic disruptions and destabilizing labor markets worldwide. In Indonesia, the surge in open unemployment during the pandemic has raised concerns regarding regional economic resilience and its broader implications for national economic security. As unemployment can exacerbate social vulnerability and weaken adaptive capacity, understanding regional labor market dynamics is critical for strengthening national resilience. Aims: This study aims to examine the impact of pandemic-induced shocks on provincial open unemployment rates in Indonesia and assess regional heterogeneity in economic resilience. Method: The study employs provincial level panel data and applies a Linear Mixed Model (LMM) to capture both temporal effects and regional heterogeneity. The model incorporates pandemic indicators alongside structural economic variables, including informal employment and commodity distribution dynamics, to evaluate their roles as vulnerability factors or resilience buffers during the crisis period. Results: The findings show that the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly increased the open unemployment rate in all provinces in Indonesia. This study also shows that the percentage of trade and transportation margins (MTT) for shallots influences the open unemployment rate with a p-value of 0.017 and a variable coefficient of 0.021. In addition, it was also found that the proportion of informal workers in the total national workforce also has a significant effect on changes in the open unemployment rate (p-value: 0.001, coefficient: -0.077). Another finding from this study is that the level of high school education does not have a significant effect on the open unemployment rate. Conclusion: This study on pandemic induced unemployment shocks contributes by integrating regional heterogeneity into economic resilience analysis using a multilevel modeling framework. Strengthening regional economic resilience through labor market flexibility, supply chain stability, and adaptive policy coordination is essential to safeguarding socioeconomic stability and reinforcing Indonesia’s national resilience against large-scale non-traditional threats.
INDONESIA’S PERSPECTIVE AND POSSIBLE STRATEGIES AS THE CHAIRMANSHIP OF ASEAN 2023 IN RESPONDING TO THE EMERGENCE OF AUSTRALIA-UK-USA DEFENSE PACT Alma Evelinda Silalahi; Rodon Pedrason; Rizerius Eko Hadisancoko; Surachman Surjaatmadja; Agung Risdhianto; Hikmat Zakky Almubaroq
Jurnal Pertahanan dan Bela Negara Vol. 13 No. 2 (2023): Jurnal Pertahanan dan Bela Negara
Publisher : Republic of Indonesia Defense University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33172/jpbh.v13i2.13007

Abstract

The formation of the AUKUS Defense Pact (Australia-UK-US) has the potential to trigger militarization and regional instability. Indonesia, poised to lead ASEAN in 2023, is concerned about the impact of heightened tensions and threats to regional security. If AUKUS alters the role of external powers in this region, the centrality of ASEAN's role in preserving regional stability could be disrupted. This study aims to analyze the perspectives and strategies that Indonesia, on behalf of ASEAN, can adopt in facing AUKUS. A qualitative research method is employed with a descriptive approach. Data collection involves comprehensive interviews and a literature review. The SWOT method is used to formulate suitable strategies and perspectives, particularly those that reaffirm ASEAN's central role. The research findings reveal that the emergence of AUKUS has triggered security dilemmas within ASEAN, accelerated regional arms races, and potentially altered the balance of military power. As ASEAN Chair in 2023, Indonesia is committed to fostering unity within ASEAN to preserve regional stability and interests. The SO strategy (Strengths-Opportunities), through diplomatic efforts, economic cooperation, and multilateralism coordinated by ASEAN, is identified as the way for Indonesia to reinforce ASEAN's central role and respond to AUKUS. Consequently, Indonesia can promote regional cooperation, stability, and resilience.
Co-Authors Agung Risdhianto Ahmad Naqiyuddin Bakar Albubaroq, Hikmat Zakky Alma Evelinda Silalahi Bima Ramadhan Kenny Candra Pradana Novalia Novalia Pedrason, Rodon Rizerius Eko Hadisancoko