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All Journal de Fermat : Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Yan Aditya Pradana
Universitas Muhammadiyah Madiun
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Mathematics Social Sciences Other

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Forecast Accuracy Comparison Between Holt’s Method and the Box-Jenkins Approach: The Case of Madiun City Labor Force Participation Rate Muhammad Qolbi Shobri; Yan Aditya Pradana; Putri Balqis Al-Kubro; Nayla Desviona; Nila Destia Nasra
UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science Vol. 3 No. 3 (2025): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Publisher : Departemen Statistika Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/ujsds/vol3-iss3/413

Abstract

Pacitan district recorded the highest Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) in Eastern Java Province. Meanwhile, Madiun city which is one of the largest cities in East Java Province, is ranked only 34 out of 39 cities in 2023. This condition raises concern for the local government, perticularly the Department of Manpower,in ensuring that the productive-age population can be optimally absorbed into the labor market. The LFPR is categorized as time series data, thus forecasting method are required to estimate its future trends.This Study compares the performance of the Double Exponential Smoothing Holt (DESH) method and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Box-Jenkins approach in forecasting the LFPR of Madiun City. The empirical result show that the ARIMA (1,0,1) model provides better accuracy compared to DESH. The forecasting result  indiacte that the LFPR of Madiun City is project to reach 67,19% in 2024, 67,20% in 2025, and 67,21% in 2026, with  Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 14,48; Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 3,80 and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 4,75%. These finding are expected to serve as reference for future research and practical input for policymakers in formulating strategies to improve labor LFPR in Madiun City.
EKSPLORASI ETNOMATEMATIKA PADA OLEH-OLEH MAKANAN KHAS KOTA MADIUN Lenny Puspita Dewi; Yan Aditya Pradana; Dian Ardifah Iswari; Muhammad Qolbi Shobri; Naufal Ishartono; Citra Kusuma Pratiwi
De Fermat : Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika, Fakultas Keguruan dan Ilmu Pendidikan, Universitas Balikpapan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36277/defermat.v9i1.2488

Abstract

Negative perceptions of mathematics persist, largely due to its abstract nature and the limited use of concrete examples in instruction. Integrating cultural elements into learning can provide an alternative approach to support a more contextualized understanding of mathematical concepts. Ethnomathematics serves as a bridge between culture and mathematics within the learning process. This study aims to explore ethnomathematical concepts embedded in traditional food products of Madiun City, namely brem, bluder, and lempeng. A qualitative approach with an ethnographic method was employed. Data were collected through observation, direct measurement of the research objects, and documentation. The data were analyzed using the Miles and Huberman interactive model, including data reduction, data display, and conclusion drawing. The results of the study indicate that various mathematical concepts are present in the production and packaging processes of traditional foods. In brem, concepts of the rectangular prism, measurement, and volume were identified. In bluder, concepts of the truncated square pyramid, base area, height, and volume were identified. Meanwhile, in lempeng, the concepts of the rectangular plane figure, the rectangular prism, area, volume, and the size ratio between raw and cooked lempeng of 1:2 were found. These mathematical concepts appear implicitly in the cultural activities of the community, particularly in the production and packaging processes of traditional foods.
Co-Authors Citra Kusuma Pratiwi Dian Ardifah Iswari Lenny Puspita Dewi Muhammad Qolbi Shobri Naufal Ishartono Nayla Desviona Nila Destia Nasra Putri Balqis Al-Kubro