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All Journal Riset, Ekonomi, Akuntansi dan Perpajakan (REKAN) Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan
Azmi Fawwaz Syahrullah
Universitas Islam Negeri Sunan Gunung Djati Bandung
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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The role of imports, exchange rates, and reserve stability in driving Indonesia’s export performance Azmi Fawwaz Syahrullah; Adang Djatnika Effendi; Herry Sutanto
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 16 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/optimum.v16i1.15536

Abstract

Indonesia’s export performance is shaped by various macroeconomic factors that represent both the country’s production capabilities and broader external economic conditions. This study explores how exchange rates, imports, and foreign exchange reserves influence Indonesia’s export activities. In contrast to many earlier studies that examined these variables individually, this research brings them together in one empirical framework to better understand their joint impact on export performance. The analysis is based on annual time-series data from 1995 to 2024, sourced from the World Bank database. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied to identify both short-run dynamics and long-run relationships among the variables. Prior to estimation, several econometric procedures are conducted, including unit root testing, optimal lag selection based on the Akaike Information Criterion, bounds testing for cointegration, and diagnostic tests to ensure model reliability. The empirical findings indicate that imports have a positive and statistically significant impact on Indonesia’s exports in both the short term and the long term. Meanwhile, the exchange rate does not appear to have a significant direct influence on export performance. Foreign exchange reserves, on the other hand, show a positive relationship with exports, although the statistical strength of this effect is relatively weaker. Overall, these results suggest that ensuring the availability of imported production inputs and maintaining macroeconomic stability are important factors in supporting sustainable export growth in Indonesia.  
Determinan Makroekonomi terhadap Penerimaan Pajak dalam Negeri: Peran PDB, Jumlah Penduduk, dan Inflasi Azmi Fawwaz Syahrullah; Salsa Nabila Putria; Agung Kurniawan
Riset, Ekonomi, Akuntansi dan Perpajakan (Rekan) Vol. 7 No. 1 (2026): Riset, Ekonomi, Akuntansi dan Perpajakan (Rekan): In-Press
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/rekan.v7i1.6108

Abstract

Penerimaan pajak merupakan sumber utama pendapatan negara yang sangat dipengaruhi oleh kondisi makroekonomi. Fluktuasi pertumbuhan ekonomi, perubahan jumlah penduduk, serta dinamika inflasi dapat memengaruhi kemampuan pemerintah dalam menghimpun penerimaan pajak. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh produk domestik bruto (PDB), jumlah penduduk, dan inflasi terhadap penerimaan pajak dalam negeri di Indonesia periode 2015–2024. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan data sekunder berbentuk time series tahunan yang diperoleh dari publikasi resmi Badan Pusat Statistik. Teknik analisis yang digunakan adalah regresi linier berganda dengan bantuan perangkat lunak EViews, yang didahului dengan pengujian asumsi klasik meliputi uji normalitas, multikolinearitas, heteroskedastisitas, dan autokorelasi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa produk domestik bruto, jumlah penduduk, dan inflasi berpengaruh signifikan terhadap penerimaan pajak dalam negeri, baik secara parsial maupun simultan. PDB menjadi variabel yang paling dominan dalam menjelaskan variasi penerimaan pajak. Temuan ini menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan aktivitas ekonomi dan stabilitas harga memilikiperan penting dalam meningkatkan kapasitas fiskal negara. Implikasi penelitian ini menekankan pentingnya kebijakan ekonomi yang mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi berkelanjutan serta menjaga stabilitas inflasi guna mengoptimalkan penerimaan pajak.
Co-Authors Adang Djatnika Effendi Agung Kurniawan Salsa Nabila Putria Sutanto, Herry