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All Journal Jurnal Natural Journal of Social Research JBIMA: Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat
Nurhaida Nurhaida
Jurusan Matematika dan Statistika, FMIPA, Universitas Papua
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Chemistry Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Mathematics Physics Public Health Social Sciences Other

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Evaluasi Tes Potensi Akademik Siswa SMA Taruna Kasuari Nusantara Manokwari Berbasis CAT Untuk Persiapan Sekolah Kedinasan Junianto Sesa; Nurhaida; La Ode Muhlis; Rium Hilum; Harina Orpa Lefina Monim; Esther Ria Matulessy; Trigarcia Maleachi Randa; Loria Amisah Lubis
Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Vol 2 No 2 (2025)
Publisher : PT. Edutech Inovatif Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.64109/yx1mq764

Abstract

Tes Potensi Akademik (TPA) merupakan salah satu komponen penting dalam seleksi masuk sekolah kedinasan yang bertujuan mengukur kemampuan berpikir logis, numerik, dan verbal siswa secara menyeluruh. Namun, kenyataannya masih banyak siswa yang belum familiar dengan bentuk soal TPA, strategi penyelesaiannya, serta belum terbiasa menghadapi ujian berbasis digital atau Computer Assisted Test (CAT). Kegiatan pengabdian kepada masyarakat ini dilaksanakan untuk membantu siswa SMA Taruna Kasuari Nusantara Manokwari dalam meningkatkan kesiapan akademik mereka menghadapi seleksi sekolah kedinasan melalui pelatihan dan evaluasi TPA berbasis CAT. Kegiatan dilakukan dengan beberapa tahapan, yaitu penyusunan soal TPA berdasarkan kisi-kisi resmi, pemberian materi pengantar melalui pelatihan singkat, pelaksanaan post test menggunakan sistem CAT, dan analisis terhadap hasil yang diperoleh peserta. Data yang digunakan merupakan hasil post test sebagai representasi capaian akhir siswa setelah pelatihan. Hasil kegiatan menunjukkan bahwa sebagian besar siswa mengalami peningkatan pemahaman dan mampu menyelesaikan soal dalam waktu yang ditentukan, meskipun masih ditemukan kesulitan dalam menjawab soal-soal logika numerik dan analogi verbal. Selain itu, pelaksanaan CAT memberikan pengalaman teknis yang berguna serta meningkatkan efisiensi dan objektivitas proses evaluasi. Kesimpulannya, kegiatan ini membuktikan bahwa simulasi dan evaluasi TPA berbasis CAT dapat menjadi strategi yang tepat dan efektif dalam membantu siswa mempersiapkan diri mengikuti seleksi masuk sekolah kedinasan secara lebih optimal dan terstruktur.
Non-Linear Trend Analysis to Forecast The Number of New Two-Wheeled and Four-Wheeled Vehicles in Manokwari Regency Patresia Sinaga; Esther Ria Matulessy; Nurhaida Nurhaida
Journal of Social Research Vol. 3 No. 1 (2023): Journal of Social Research
Publisher : International Journal Labs

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55324/josr.v3i1.1861

Abstract

Forecasting is a systematic effort that employs scientific methods (knowledge and technology) to predict future events. Trends depict patterns of time series data over long or significant time intervals, indicating a tendency to either rise or fall. Trend lines are not always linear; they can have a curved (non-linear) shape. Non-linear trends refer to trend models that involve quadratic, cubic, and so on equations. Based on the non-linear trend-shaped data plot and research objectives, non-linear trend analysis is used to forecast the number of motor vehicles in Manokwari Regency. The best model for forecasting the number of new two-wheeled vehicles is the cubic trend model, which is: with a MAPE of 7.8%, categorized as excellent. The best model for forecasting the number of new four-wheeled vehicles is also the cubic trend model, which is: with a MAPE of 5.7%, categorized as excellent.
Forecasting Household Electricity Consumption by Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Method Riana Wijayanti; Esther Ria Matulessy; Nurhaida Nurhaida
Journal of Social Research Vol. 4 No. 8 (2025): Journal of Social Research
Publisher : International Journal Labs

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55324/josr.v4i7.2669

Abstract

Electricity is a vital energy source for households, with consumption patterns influenced by seasonal trends and external factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to forecast monthly household electricity consumption at ULP Manokwari Kota using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) method. The research utilizes secondary data from January 2013 to December 2022, which exhibits an upward trend and seasonal fluctuations. The Box-Jenkins methodology is employed, involving stationarity checks, model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic testing, and forecasting. The dataset, spanning January 2013 to December 2022, demonstrates both an upward trend and a seasonal pattern. The forecasting process follows the Box-Jenkins approach: checking stationarity, identifying the model, estimating parameters, diagnosing the model, and performing forecasting. The optimal model for predicting electricity demand in the residential sector at ULP Manokwari Kota is SARIMA (1,1,0) ((0,0,1))^12, with parameters indicating significant autoregressive and seasonal effects. Using this model, monthly electricity demand from January to December 2023 is forecasted. The lowest demand is projected for February 2023 (7,274,147 kWh), while the highest is in December 2023 (7,481,067 kWh). This research provides valuable insights for PT. PLN (Persero) ULP Manokwari Kota in planning electricity supply and ensuring system reliability, particularly in addressing seasonal demand variations. The study contributes to the literature by applying SARIMA to household electricity forecasting in a region with isolated power systems, highlighting its utility for energy management and policy formulation.
PERBANDINGAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING BROWN DAN HOLT DALAM MERAMALKAN KEBUTUHAN ENERGI LISTRIK SEKTOR BISNIS (Studi Kasus: PT. PLN (PERSERO) ULP Manokwari Kota) Prita Larasati Prita Larasati; Esther Ria Matulessy; Nurhaida Nurhaida
Jurnal Natural Vol. 20 No. 1 (2024): Jurnal Natural
Publisher : FMIPA Universitas Papua

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30862/jn.v20i1.264

Abstract

Electric energy forecasting for the business sector is one of the solutions made to predict the need for electrical energy, especially the business sector, which is increasing every period. The purpose of this research is to forecast the electrical energy demand of the business sector to predict events that will occur in the future using mathematical models to minimize unwanted risks. Based on the data plot in the form of a linear trend and the research objectives, a comparison of the Brown and Holt double exponential smoothing methods is used in forecasting the electrical energy demand of the Manokwari City business sector to obtain the best model for the period August 2023 to July is 2024. The result of this study is to compare the best model obtained from the two models, namely Holt's double exponential smoothing with a forecasting model using parameters and with MAD value of , MSE value of , and MAPE value of .
Co-Authors Esther Ria Matulessy Harina O.L Monim Junianto Sesa La Ode Muhlis Loria Amisah Lubis Patresia Sinaga Prita Larasati Prita Larasati Riana Wijayanti Rium Hilum Trigarcia Maleachi Randa