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Poverty and Social Welfare: An Autoregressive Vector Panel Analysis of Social Work Interventions in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines (1996-2022) Achmad, Willya; Prawira, Yogie; Maulida, Hindina; Munggaran, Fadriyansyah
Sosiohumaniora Vol 28, No 1 (2026): Sosiohumaniora: Jurnal Ilmu-Ilmu Sosial dan Humaniora, MARCH 2026
Publisher : Universitas Padjadjaran

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24198/sosiohumaniora.v28i1.61043

Abstract

This study investigates the implementation and efficacy of macro-level social work interventions in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Using World Bank secondary data (1996–2022), the research evaluates poverty alongside variables representing macro interventions: investment levels, labor force participation, and school enrollment. Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) analysis reveals that historical investment strongly drives current investment, creating a continuous growth cycle. Paradoxically, increased investment negatively impacts labor force participation, poverty levels, and school enrollment, indicating that economic growth can trigger adverse social consequences. Furthermore, the Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace) demonstrates no long-term relationship between the variables, suggesting the model's limitations for long-term forecasting. Impulse Response Function (IRF) results confirm that while variables influence each other in subsequent periods, these impacts diminish over time.The findings highlight that while investments drive economic growth in these nations, they do not automatically alleviate poverty. Unfairly allocated investments may even prove counterproductive to educational and welfare goals. Given the inherently unstable relationship between economics and society, poverty remains a multifaceted challenge. Ultimately, policymakers must balance economic progress with social welfare, ensuring that economic policies actively complement social policies.