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Unequal Impact of Price Changes in Indonesia Rulyusa Pratikto; Mohamad Ikhsan; Benedictus Raksaka Mahi
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Volume 61, Number 3, December 2015
Publisher : Institute for Economic and Social Research

The main idea of this study is to determine the impact of relative inflation on poverty incidents and to investigate whether inflation inequality has occurred in Indonesia. Interesting results were found at regional level. Firstly, Jakarta had different poverty response with respect to price increases. Processed food and transportation inflation were more imperative for the poor in Jakarta. Secondly, the poor in province with low poverty figures were more prone to inflation. In general, the results show that food inflation has the major adverse impact on the poor. Moreover, we found that inflation in Indonesia has not been pro-poor.AbstrakTujuan utama dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menentukan dampak dari perubahan harga terhadap kemiskinan, serta juga untuk mengetahui apakah terjadi ketimpangan inflasi di Indonesia. Hasil yang menarik diperoleh dari analisa pada tingkat provinsi. Pertama, kemiskinan pada provinsi Jakarta memiliki karakteristik yang berbeda. Inflasi pada makanan jadi dan transportasi justru memiliki dampak yang lebih merugikan masyarakat miskin. Kedua, masyarakat miskin yang berada di provinsi dengan tingkat kemiskinan relatif rendah justru lebih sensitif terhadap inflasi. Secara umum, inflasi bahan makanan merupakan faktor terbesar dalam peningkatan kemiskinan. Selain itu, masyarakat miskin telah mengalami total inflasi yang lebih besar dibandingkan dengan masyarakat tidak miskin.Kata kunci: Kemiskinan; Inflasi; Elastisitas Harga terhadap Kemiskinan; Pro-Poor Price Index; Price Index for the PoorJEL classifications: E3; I3; O1; R2

Infrastruktur Transportasi dan Kinerja Ekspor dari Tiga Kelompok Komoditas Indonesia Daniswara, Adrian Pandhito; Ikhsan, Mohamad
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol. 22, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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This study aims to assess the impact of road and port infrastructure quality of Indonesia and its trade partners, on Indonesia’s export performance in total as well as on three commodity groups, consisting of mineral, base metals, and manufactured products. Using the Gravity Model with panel data from bilateral export value with 18 largest trade partners in 2007 to 2018, this study found that the proxy of transportation infrastructure quality of both countries are significant and positively impact Indonesia’s total export performance. This study also found that better transportation infrastructure quality has stronger impacts on base metals and manufactured products rather than mineral products, considering each characteristics.

Efektivitas Kredibilitas Bank Sentral terhadap Inflasi bagi Produsen dan Konsumen di Indonesia Prabowo, Rakhmat; Ikhsan, Mohamad
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol. 20, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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This study is intended to explain the impact of central bank credibility on inflation in Indonesia at the producer and consumer level. In this study, Central Bank Credibility is measured using an index with values between 0 (zero credibility) and 1 (perfect credibility). Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) method is used to analyze the impact of central bank credibility on inflation. Based on the results, central bank credibility can reduce inflation on both producer and consumer price. Central bank credibility is more sensitive towards producer price index compared to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) deflator and wholesale price index while at the consumer level, central bank credibility is more sensitive towards core inflation compared to headline inflation.

Reputasi dan Kredibilitas sebagai Upaya untuk Mengatasi Masalah Koordinasi dan Reformasi yang Berkelanjutan Indrawati, Sri Mulyani; Kuncoro, Ari; Ikhsan, Mohamad
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol. 19, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Reputasi dan Kredibilitas sebagai Upaya untuk Mengatasi Masalah Koordinasi dan Reformasi yang Berkelanjutan

Inflasi Makanan dan Implikasinya terhadap Kebijakan Moneter di Indonesia Pratikto, Rulyusa; Ikhsan, Mohamad
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol. 17, No. 1
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Controlling food inflation in Indonesia is essential mainly caused by its persistent and relatively significant impact on the poor’s purchasing power compare to other commodities. Thus, the main purpose of this study is to determine the effectiveness of monetary policy on food inflation stabilization in Indonesia. By utilizing Structural Vector Autoregression, the empirical results provided here show that monetary policy does effectively prevent the spillover effect of food to non-food inflation. In addition to that, the exchange rate may play some role in the longer period to affect the volatility of food inflation.

Fiscal Sustainability in Indonesia with Asymmetry Ikhsan, Mohamad; Virananda, I Gede Sthitaprajna
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Vol. 67, No. 1
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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The management of fiscal balance determines public debt sustainability, where a positive response of primary balance towards the debt ratio indicates a sustainable path. However, there might be asymmetry in the government's fiscal management between different phases of the debt trajectory and business cycle. This study examines the sustainability of fiscal imbalance and public debt in Indonesia using the fiscal reaction function with annual fiscal data from 1976 to 2019. We incorporate asymmetry by decomposing the lagged debt ratio and cyclical output variables into their positive and negative partial sums. We find that Indonesia's fiscal imbalance is on a path of weak sustainability as revenue grows more slowly than expenditure in the long run, with the bi-directional Granger causality between the two indicating fiscal synchronization. Long-run public debt sustainability is on a more sustainable path as primary surplus responds positively to the debt ratio. However, our asymmetric analysis suggests that this might be a false impression as primary balance decreases only in response to debt ratio decrease but increases less or fails to increase when the debt ratio rises, which is potentially dangerous.

The Productivity and Future Growth Potential of Indonesia Ikhsan, Mohamad; Indrawati, Sri Mulyani; Virananda, I Gede Sthitaprajna; Abdi, Zihaul
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Vol. 67, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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The output per worker of Indonesia has been on a downtrend since 2010, with total factor productivity (TFP) and capital stock largely stagnant if not declining. This paper discusses stylized facts that may explain recent trends in the productivity and growth potential of Indonesia. The decomposition of output per worker reveals the declining contribution of human capital, which is also most negative among peer countries. The growth in labor productivity has been concentrated within sectors, implying room for gains from labor reallocations. A substantial share of employment and credit in Indonesia has shifted to the relatively unproductive service sectors, particularly wholesale and retail trade. In terms of firm dynamics, the contribution of large firms in Indonesia has been lackluster compared to regional peers while the productivity of micro, small and medium enterprises remains stagnant. Considering that human capital and TFP measures of Indonesia are lagging behind middle-income peers, there is wide scope for Indonesia to catch up. However, the potential output of Indonesia also faces new risks from the COVID-19 pandemic. We expect that theÂ short-term effect of the pandemic on capital accumulation and the long-term effect on human capital pose the highest risk while labor inputs appear to be more resilient. Meanwhile, the potential productivity gains from accelerated digital adoption and sectoral reallocations are more uncertain.

Unequal Impact of Price Changes in Indonesia Pratikno, Ruly; Ikhsan, Mohamad
Economics and Finance in Indonesia Vol. 61, No. 3
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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The main idea of this study is to determine the impact of relative inflation on poverty incidents and to investigate whether inflation inequality has occurred in Indonesia. Interesting results were found at regional level. Firstly, Jakarta had different poverty response with respect to price increases. Processed food and transportation inflation were more imperative for the poor in Jakarta. Secondly, the poor in province with low poverty figures were more prone to inflation. In general, the results show that food inflation has the major adverse impact on the poor. Moreover, we found that inflation in Indonesia has not been pro-poor.

Political Behaviour of the Indonesian Middle Class: Lower Turnouts in More Modernised Areas Margani Utami, Dyah; Ikhsan, Mohamad; Dartanto, Teguh; Mallarangeng, Rizal
JSP (Jurnal Ilmu Sosial dan ilmu Poltik) Vol 27, No 3 (2024): March
Publisher : Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, Universitas Gadjah Mada

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22146/jsp.89360

The modernisation theory assumes that the larger the middle class, the more likely democracy is supported; for example, there will be more participation in elections, as shown in Western countries. However, there is no clear evidence on whether this trend also appears in developing countries. This study emphasises the association between the proportion of the middle class and the support for democracy in terms of voter turnout. Irrespective of the nature of the elections, we suppose that the modernisation level, proxied by the middle-class share, determines voter turnouts. Using data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and the General Election Commission (KPU), we differentiate the voter turnouts in Indonesia's general election in 2019 at the district or city levels by grouping them into modernised and less-modernized regions, i.e., urban versus rural, Java versus outside Java, and western versus eastern regions. This study documented a deviation from the modernisation theory, evidenced by an unclear association between the proportion of the middle class and the voter turnout in the modernised areas. Counterintuitively, there are positive associations in the less modernised areas. The findings also reveal the selective participation among voters, as they showed different participation levels in the types of elections conducted in one day. They were more active in presidential elections than in parliamentary elections. In developing countries like Indonesia, the expansion of the middle class, followed by the declining number of rural regions, may lead to a decline in voter turnouts, thus raising demand for good governance and better performance of parties and candidates.

PEMBINAAN NARAPIDANA ANAK SEBAGAI UPAYA MENCEGAH TERJADINYA PENGULANGAN TINDAK PIDANA (Studi Pada LembagaPemasyarakatan Klas IIA Padang) Ikhsan, Mohamad
UNES Journal of Swara Justisia Vol 2 No 2 (2018): Unes Journal of Swara Justisia (Juli 2018)
Publisher : Program Magister Ilmu Hukum Universitas Ekasakti

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Act No. 12/1995 on Corrections mandates that prisons are not only places to serve punishment for criminals, but also places for coaching while also educating prisoners. Child prisoners also need to be given special attention so that they have the ability to adapt and obey the rule of law applicable after serving time in the penitentiary. However, in practice because the pattern of guidance for child prisoners is similar to the pattern of guidance applied by adult inmates and overcapacity, so that the guidance given does not match what is expected, consequently the child returns to the penitentiary for the second time.

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