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All Journal JURNAL MATEMATIKA STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Informatika Mulawarman: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Komputer Jurnal Ibriez : Jurnal Kependidikan Dasar Islam Berbasis Sains BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Jurnal Kreativitas PKM Variance : Journal of Statistics and Its Applications Jurnal Varian Proceedings of Annual Conference for Muslim Scholars Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Parameter: Journal of Statistics WISDOM: Jurnal Pendidikan Anak Usia Dini Journal of Research Applications in Community Services Eksponensial STATISTIKA
M. Fathurahman
Universitas Mulawarman
Religion Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Arts Humanities Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Health Professions Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Medicine & Pharmacology Nursing Physics Public Health Social Sciences Transportation Other

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Pemodelan Regresi Spasial Data Panel: Studi Kasus : Indeks Pembangunan Manusia di Provinsi Kalimantan Timur Menurut Kabupaten/Kota Tahun 2017-2020 Murdani, Endah Mulia; Fathurahman, M; Goejantoro, Rito
EKSPONENSIAL Vol. 13 No. 2 (2022)
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika FMIPA Universitas Mulawarman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1125.51 KB) | DOI: 10.30872/eksponensial.v13i2.956

Abstract

Panel data is a combination of cross-section data and time-series data. The panel data regression can model the panel data. In its development, panel data regression has been developed to model spatial data, called panel data spatial regression. Spatial data is data that considers the empirical observations and considers the location factor of these observations. This study examines the spatial regression modeling of panel data and applies it to model the factors that influence the Human Development Index (HDI) of districts/cities in East Kalimantan Province from 2017 to 2020. HDI is a composite index that measures the average achievement in the three basic dimensions of human development that are considered very basic, namely life expectancy, knowledge, and a decent standard of living. HDI is one of the measuring tools considered to reflect the status of human development in a region and plays an essential role in improving the quality of human resources. The results show that the panel data spatial regression model suitable for modeling the HDI of districts/cities in East Kalimantan Province from 2017 to 2020 is the Spatial Autoregressive Fixed Effect (SAR-FE) model. The rate of economic growth and the district/city minimum wage factors that significantly influence the HDI of districts/cities in East Kalimantan Province from 2017 to 2020 based on the SAR-FE model is the rate of economic growth and the district/city minimum wage. Keywords : Panel Data, Spatial Data, Panel Data Spatial Regression, SAR-FE, HDI
Pemodelan Jumlah Kasus Tuberkulosis Paru di Indonesia dengan Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression Putri, Ditha Reginna; Fathurahman, M.; Suyitno, Suyitno
EKSPONENSIAL Vol. 15 No. 1 (2024): Jurnal Eksponensial
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika FMIPA Universitas Mulawarman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30872/eksponensial.v15i1.1303

Abstract

Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR) model is the development of Negative Binomial Regression (NBR) model applied to spatial data. The parameter estimation of GWNBR model is performed at each observation location using spatial weighting. The purpose of this study is to determine the GWNBR model of the number of pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Indonesia in 2021 and determine the factors that influence pulmonary tuberculosis cases in Indonesia in 2021. The research data are secondary data obtained from the Indonesian Ministry of Health and Indonesian Central Agency on Statistics. Parameter estimation method is Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). Spatial weighting is calculated by using the Adaptive bi-square weighting function and the optimum bandwidth is determined by using the Cross-Validation (CV). The research results showed that the exact Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimator could not be obtained analytically and the approximation of ML estimator was obtained by using the Newton-Raphson iterative method. Based on the results of the parameter testing of GWNBR model, it was concluded that the factors affecting the number of tuberculosis cases were local and varied in 34 provinces. The factor affecting locally are population density, the percentage of districts/cities implementing GERMAS, and number of hospitals.
Regresi Binomial Negatif untuk Memodelkan Kematian Bayi di Kalimantan Timur Fathurahman, M
EKSPONENSIAL Vol. 13 No. 1 (2022)
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika FMIPA Universitas Mulawarman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (671.081 KB) | DOI: 10.30872/eksponensial.v13i1.888

Abstract

Negative Binomial Regression (NBR) is an alternative regression model to model the relationship between the dependent variable in overdispersion count data and one or more independent variables. Overdispersion is a problem in Poisson regression modeling. Namely, the variance of the dependent variable is more than the mean. If there is overdispersion, then the parameter estimator of the Poisson regression model has a standard error value that is not under-estimated. The NBR model was applied to modeling infant mortality in East Kalimantan in 2019. Data on infant mortality in East Kalimantan in 2019 indicated overdispersion. Infant mortality is an indicator that can measure the progress of development outcomes in the health sector in a region. In the last three years, from 2017 to 2019, infant mortality data in East Kalimantan has increased. Therefore, it is necessary to do modeling to get the factors that cause it. The modeling results with NBR show that the percentage of the complete neonatal visit of KN3, the percentage of infant health services, and the percentage of visits by pregnant women K4 significantly affect infant mortality in East Kalimantan in 2019.
Regresi Logistik Ordinal untuk Memodelkan Predikat Lulusan Perguruan Tingggi Fathurahman, M.; Orvanita; Darnah
Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya Vol. 7 No. 2 (2023): Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Negeri Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21009/JSA.07201

Abstract

Logistic regression is an alternative model that can model the relationship between a categorical response variable and one or more categorical, continuous predictor variables, or a combination of categorical and continuous predictor variables. Based on the number of categories in the response variable, the logistic regression model consists of a dichotomous logistic regression model and a polychotomous regression model. The dichotomous logistic regression model is a logistic regression model that has two categories in the response variable and has a Bernoulli distribution. In comparison, the polychotomous logistic regression model is a logistic regression model that has three or more categories and a multinomial distribution. The polychotomous logistic regression model is divided into two models, namely the multinomial logistic regression model and ordinal logistic regression. This research aims to examine ordinal logistic regression modeling and its application to the predicate of graduates of the undergraduate program at the Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Mulawarman University (FMIPA UNMUL) for the 2020 graduation period. The results of the research show that the factors that have a significant influence on the predicate of graduates of the FMIPA UNMUL undergraduate program are gender and admission route. Female graduates of the FMIPA UNMUL undergraduate program have a greater chance of achieving satisfactory and very satisfactory predicates compared to achieving a cum laude predicate. Graduates of the FMIPA UNMUL undergraduate program who are accepted through the SMMPTN admission route have a lower chance of achieving satisfactory and very satisfactory predicates compared to achieving a cum laude predicate.
FORECASTING TOTAL ASSETS OF PT. BPD KALTIM KALTARA USING THE SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD Nurmayanti, Wiwit Pura; Ningsih, Eva Lestari; Arif, Zainul; Fathurahman, M; Hasanah, Siti Hadijah
Parameter: Journal of Statistics Vol. 4 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Tadulako

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22487/27765660.2024.v4.i2.17473

Abstract

PT. BPD Kaltim Kaltara is one of the regional development banks that plays a crucial role in supporting regional economic development in East Kalimantan and North Kalimantan. The company's total assets reflect significant financial stability and growth, making it an interesting topic to analyze in the context of strategic financial planning. The purpose of this study is to use the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) approach to forecast PT. BPD Kaltim Kaltara's total assets. In the forecasting process, alpha 0,3, alpha 0,6, alpha 0,7, and alpha 0,8 are tested to determine the best value that gives the most accurate results. Based on the forecasting accuracy analysis, the SES method with alpha = 0,7 proved to be the most optimal in predicting the company's total assets, achieving MAE = 1454272,737, MSE = 4764920751283, and MAPE = 4,0433% (excellent forecasting ability). The forecasting results show an upward trend in assets, with total assets in September 2024 estimated to reach IDR 48.440.683,75. This method provides valuable guidance in thecompany's financial strategic planning, helping to anticipate future asset developments more precisely.These forecasting results also emphasize the importance of selecting the right parameters in the forecasting model to improve prediction accuracy.
Prediksi Ketepatan Klasifikasi Status Predikat Lulusan Program Sarjana FMIPA Universitas Mulawarman Menggunakan Regresi Logistik Biner dan Neural Networks Khasanah, Lisa Dwi Nurul; Fathurahman, M.; Hayati, Memi Nor
EKSPONENSIAL Vol. 15 No. 2 (2024): Jurnal Eksponensial
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika FMIPA Universitas Mulawarman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30872/eksponensial.v15i2.1301

Abstract

Classification is a learning technique for identifying categorical groups from a data set whose group member categories are known. Several methods that can be used in classification include binary logistic regression and neural networks. This research aims to compare the prediction results for the accuracy of the classification of predicate status for graduates of the FMIPA Mulawarman University undergraduate program in 2021. In the binary logistic regression method, the model parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation and Fisher scoring iteration methods. The neural networks used the backpropagation algorithm. The results of the research show that the classification accuracy using the confusion matrix obtained with binary logistic regression and neural networks is the same, namely 87.5%.
Penerapan Algoritma Divisive Analysis dalam Pengelompokan Provinsi di Indonesia Berdasarkan Prevalensi Stunting Suyono, Ari Krisna; Hayati, Memi Nor; Siringoringo, Meiliyani; Prangga, Surya; Fathurahman, M.
EKSPONENSIAL Vol. 15 No. 2 (2024): Jurnal Eksponensial
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika FMIPA Universitas Mulawarman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30872/eksponensial.v15i2.1341

Abstract

Cluster analysis is an analysis that aims to group data (objects) based only on the information contained in the data that describes objects and the relationships between the objects. Divisive analysis is a clustering method using a top-down approach which starts by placing all objects into one cluster or what is called a hierarchical root and then dividing the cluster root into several smaller clusters. This research aimed to group 34 provinces in Indonesia into 2,3, and 4 clusters based on stunting prevalence data and factors causing stunting in 2022 using a divisive analysis algorithm. The results showed that for 2 clusters, cluster 1 consisted of 32 provinces with low stunting prevalence, and cluster 2 consisted of 2 provinces with high stunting prevalence. For 3 clusters, cluster 1 consisted of 26 provinces with moderate stunting prevalence, cluster 2 consisted of 6 provinces with low stunting prevalence, and cluster 3 consisted of 2 provinces with high stunting prevalence. For 4 clusters, cluster 1 consisted of 21 provinces with moderate stunting prevalence, cluster 2 consisted of 5 provinces with low stunting prevalence, cluster 3 consisted of 6 provinces with high stunting prevalence, and cluster 4 consisted of 2 provinces with very high stunting prevalence.
Peramalan Curah Hujan Di Kota Samarinda Menggunakan Vector Error Correction Model Astafira, Ilyas; Siringoringo, Meiliyani; Fathurahman, M.
EKSPONENSIAL Vol. 15 No. 2 (2024): Jurnal Eksponensial
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika FMIPA Universitas Mulawarman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30872/eksponensial.v15i2.1377

Abstract

The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was one of the multivariate time series models that was a development of the Vector Autoregressive (VAR). VECM could be used to forecast non-stationary time series variables that had cointegration relationships. This study used monthly data of rainfall, minimum air temperature, and maximum air humidity variables from January 2015 to December 2023 to form the VECM model. The purpose of this study was to obtain a VECM model for rainfall in the city of Samarinda and to forecast rainfall in the city of Samarinda using VECM. The results of the study showed that the VECM model that formed was VECM(1) with two cointegration relationships. The rainfall forecasted results with VECM(1) indicated a downward trend until April 2024 and a horizontal pattern from May to December, with the highest rainfall in January at 214 mm and the lowest rainfall in April at 182.5 mm. The forecasted results ranged between 180-300 mm, which was categorized as moderate, with forecasting accuracy using a MAPE value of 32.369%, which was considered quite good.
Analisis Klaster Menggunakan Metode Average Linkage dengan Validasi Multiscale Bootstrap (Studi Kasus: Indikator Pendidikan di Indonesia Tahun 2021) Rasidia, Fikri; Roejantoro, Rito; Fathurahman, Muhammad
EKSPONENSIAL Vol. 16 No. 1 (2025): Jurnal Eksponensial
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika FMIPA Universitas Mulawarman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30872/eksponensial.v16i1.1392

Abstract

The average linkage method is one of the hierarchical cluster analyses, where the clustering process starts by finding two objects that have the closest distance to the average rule of the two groups. The multiscale bootstrap method is a method used to see the validity of the cluster analysis results. This study aims to determine the clusters formed using the average linkage method, as well as to determine the validity of the clusters formed based on education indicators in each province in Indonesia. The result of the study is one cluster with AU (Approximately Unbiased) ≥ 0.95 so that the cluster is considered to be able to represent the actual population.
Evaluating Different K Values in K-Fold Cross Validation for Binary Logistic Regression to Classify Poverty Sinaga, Julia Oriana; Fathurahman, M.; Wahyuningsih, Sri; Hayati, Memi Nor
Jurnal Varian Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/varian.v8i2.4403

Abstract

Data mining is essential for decision-makers to analyze and extract insights from data efficiently. Classification is one of the data mining techniques used to organize data based on its features, helping to identify patterns and make predictions. This study evaluates Binary Logistic Regression (BLR), a type of generalized linear model that suitable for binary outcomes, for classifying poverty depth across Indonesian regencies/cities in 2022, with a focus on the impact of different K values in K-Fold Cross Validation. The dataset includes 514 regencies/cities, with the Poverty Depth Index as the target variable, categorized into high (1) and low (0) levels, using 11 predictor variables. K-Fold Cross Validation was performed with K values of 3, 5, and 10, using accuracy and Area Under Curve (AUC) as evaluation metrics. The mean accuracy values for BLR are 75.7% for K=3, 74.3% for K=5, and 75.1% for K=10. Results show that K=3 offers the highest accuracy in classifying poverty depth in Indonesia, with the lowest standard deviation of 0.03. However, K=10 demonstrates superior discriminative ability in BLR, reflected by a higher AUC value. This study highlights the significant influence of K values in K-Fold Cross Validation on BLR performance.
Co-Authors Abidin, Ahmad Aliful Aisha, Putri Andrea Tri Rian Dani Annisa Zuhri Apridayanti Apridayanti, Annisa Zuhri Arif, Zainul Astafira, Ilyas Dani, Andrea Tri Rian Darnah Darnah, Darnah Dini Elizabeth Erlyne Nadhilah Widyaningrum Fachrian Bimantoro Putra Fauziyah, Meirinda Goenjatoro, Rito Hasanah, Siti Hadijah Ika Purnamasari Khairun Nida Khasanah, Lisa Dwi Nurul Meiliyani Siringoringo Meirinda Fauziyah Memi Nor Hayati Memi Nor Hayati Muh. Irfan Murdani, Endah Mulia Nariza Wanti Wulan Sari Ni'matuzzahroh, Ludia Ningsih, Eva Lestari Nurmayanti, Wiwit Pura Oroh, Chiko Zet Orvanita Patiallo, Surya Randang Putra, Fachrian Bimantoro Putri, Ditha Reginna Ramadhini, Laila Thalia Rasidia, Fikri Ratna Nila Puspitasari Regita Putri Permata Rito Goejantoro, Rito Roejantoro, Rito Rut Esra Sekar Nur Utami Sifriyani Sifriyani Sinaga, Julia Oriana Siringoringo, Meiliyani Sri Wahyuningsih Surya Prangga Suryaningsih, Ruliq Suyitno Suyitno Suyitno Suyitno Suyono, Ari Krisna Umi Kalsum Yusrian Paliling