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PERAMALAN JUMLAH PRODUKSI PADI DI PROVINSI SUMATERA BARAT MENGGUNAKAN METODE ARIMA Baringbing, Meylani; Natasyah, Nabila; saumi, Fazrina
JURNAL GAMMA-PI Vol 6 No 1 (2024): Jurnal Gamma-Pi (Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika)
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Samudra. Langsa, Aceh.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33059/gamma-pi.v6i1.9306

Abstract

Rice farming has a major role in the economy and food security, including in Langsa City. The availability and stability of rice production plays an important role in meeting people's food needs. Therefore, forecasting rice production results is crucial in developing resource management strategies, budget allocations and more focused agricultural policies.The main objective of this research is to provide a solid foundation for strategic planning and decision making in the rice farming sector in West Sumatra. By understanding trends and growth patterns in rice production, it is hoped that this research will make a positive contribution to increasing agricultural productivity, farmer welfare, and food security at the local and regional levels.national. The data research method used in this research is annual data on the amount of rice production in West Sumatra Province (in tons). Data on the amount of rice production was obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). This study focuses on food availability and the agricultural sector in West Sumatra Province by utilizing rice production data from 2018 to 2022. The method applied in this research is the ARIMA method. The following are the steps taken in forecasting using the ARIMA method using Minitab software. The ARIMA(111) model is the best ARIMA model with the smallest MAPE value of 1% for forecasting rice production in West Sumatra Province. Forecasting rice production in West Sumatra Province in 2021 to 2023 is 272,931.95 tons, 271,883.11 respectively. tonnes and 19,554.74 tonnes. The forecast results are lower than the amount of rice production from the previous year, namely 2021 and 2022. Apart from that, from the forecast results it can be seen that rice production in 2023 is lower than in 2022, namely 19,554.74 tons
PERAMALAN JUMLAH PRODUKSI KELAPA SAWIT DI INDONESIA PADA TAHUN 2024 MENGGUNAKAN METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES CHEN Daratullaila; Mutiara; saumi, Fazrina
JURNAL GAMMA-PI Vol 6 No 1 (2024): Jurnal Gamma-Pi (Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika)
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Samudra. Langsa, Aceh.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33059/gamma-pi.v6i1.9311

Abstract

Kelapa sawit berperan penting dalam industri minyak nabati. Minyak kelapa sawit adalah salah satu komoditas yang paling diminati dan diperdagangkan di pasar global, digunakan dalam berbagai produk sehari-hari seperti makanan olahan dan sebagai bahan baku utama dalam produksi bahan bakar biodiesel. Indonesia adalah produsen terbesar kelapa sawit di dunia, menyumbang sekitar 50% dari total produksi global. Sebagai produsen terbesar minyak kelapa sawit di dunia, Indonesia memiliki peran besar dalam menyediakan pasokan global minyak nabati. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meramalkan produksi kelapa sawit di Indonesia pada tahun 2024 menggunakan metode Fuzzy Time Series Chen. Ada beberapa tahapan metode time series mulai dari menghitung panjang interval, fuzzifikasi, menentukan FLR (Fuzzy Logical Relationship), menentukan FLRG (Fuzzy Logical Relationship Group, menghitung nilai peramalan kemudian setelah didapat hasil peramalan, akan dilakukan uji ketepatan peramalan dengan melihat nilai Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Setelah mengikuti langkah-langkah pada peramalan Fuzzy Time Series Chen, didapatkan nilai peramalan jumlah produksi kelapa sawit di Indonesia pada tahun 2024 sebesar 44.549.793 ton dengan tingkat peramalan sangat akurat yang diukur dengan MAPE sebesar 3.99%.
Peramalan Produksi Padi di Kota Padang Dengan Metode ARIMA Putri Nabila; Saumi, Fazrina
JURNAL GAMMA-PI Vol 6 No 2 (2024): Jurnal Gamma-Pi (Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika)
Publisher : Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Samudra. Langsa, Aceh.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33059/gamma-pi.v6i2.9315

Abstract

Padang City, as one of the centers of economic growth in the region, has its own challenges and opportunities in managing rice production. Factors such as weather conditions, agricultural technology, and government policies can influence rice production. Therefore, using the ARIMA method can help related parties to respond to changing conditions more quickly and effectively. This research aims to apply the ARIMA method in predicting rice production in Padang City. By identifying historical patterns of rice production, it is hoped that patterns can be found that can be used as a basis for predicting future production. It is hoped that the results of this research can contribute to increasing the efficiency of rice production and supporting food security in this city. The data research method used in this research is monthly data on the amount of rice production in Padang City (in tons). Data on the amount of rice production was obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). This study focuses on rice production results in Padang City by utilizing rice production data from 2018 to 2022. The method applied in this research is the ARIMA method. The ARIMA model (2,1,1) is the best ARIMA model with the smallest MAPE value, namely 99% for forecasting rice production in Padang City. From the table of forecasting results, rice production in the city of Padang in 2023 is highest in December, namely 9.295 and the lowest in February, namely -39.0994. The forecast results are lower than the amount of rice production from the previous year.
Comparison Of Euler Method And Runge Kutta Method In Estimation Of The Number Of Population In Aceh Province: Perbandingan Metode Euler Dan Metode Runge Kutta Dalam Estimasi Jumlah Penduduk Di Provinsi Aceh Tarisma, Tantri; Saumi, Fazrina; Wardani, Suci; Zahara, Zahara; Kristina, Desi
Mathline : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 7 No. 2 (2022): Mathline: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Wiralodra

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31943/mathline.v7i2.279

Abstract

Residents are people who are in an area and are controlled by applicable rules and interact with each other Residents are people who are in an area and are bound by applicable rules and interact with each other continuously or continuously. If population growth increases, this will cause many problems, including: poverty levels, unemployment, school dropout rates and increasing crime rates in each region. In anticipating the problem of increasing the population of Aceh Province, information about the population is needed. Therefore, this study will discuss several applications of mathematical methods in estimating the population of Aceh Province in the coming year using the Euler method and the Runge Kutta method of order 4. The results of the estimation of the population of Aceh Province using the Runge Kutta method are 5.030.503 inhabitants in 2021, 5.076.307 in 2022 and 5.122.486 in 2023 The estimation results using the Euler method are 5.026.162 in 2021, 5.071.745 in 2022 and 5.117.700 in 2022. The conclusion in this study is that estimation using the Runge Kutta method is a method that is better applied than the method Euler on the problem of estimating the population of Aceh Province. This is because the error value of the Runge Kutta method is smaller than the Euler method with an error value of about 0.04%. Key words : Runge Kutta, Euler, Population.
Application of Linear Regression to The Factors Affecting The Rice Production Level in Langsa City: Penerapan Regresi Linier Terhadap Faktor–Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Tingkat Produksi Padi di Kota Langsa Sari, Riska Novita; Saumi, Fazrina; Olivia, Miranda; Maidita, Rizka; Salsabilah, Anastasya; Agustina, Indrianti
Mathline : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 7 No. 2 (2022): Mathline: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Wiralodra

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31943/mathline.v7i2.282

Abstract

Rice is a food that produces rice which is the staple food for most of the Indonesian population. Indonesian people think that rice is a staple food that cannot be replaced, this causes the high demand for rice consumption in Indonesia. The Indonesian people, who are still very dependent on rice as a staple food, have forced the government to take steps to control the availability of rice properly. This study aims to determine the factors that influence rice production and to find out how much influence the relationship or correlation between factors has on production results. The method used in this study is multiple linear regression, this analysis is used to determine the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variable whether each variable is positively or negatively related and see what percentage of the influence of the independent variable on the dependent variable, namely harvested area, rainfall and productivity. on rice production in Langsa City. Based on the results of the study, the results of the analysis of a strong correlation between rice production (y) and harvested area (x2) were 0.937 and results of the multiple linear test obtained a value of with a significant level of, it can be concluded that is rejected and is accepted. 
Application Of The Adams Bashforth-Moulton Method To Coffee Production Quantity Approach Tarisma, Tantri; Saumi, Fazrina; Nabilla, Ulya
Mathline : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 9 No. 4 (2024): Mathline : Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Wiralodra

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31943/mathline.v9i4.660

Abstract

Coffee is a type of plantation plant that has long been cultivated so that it has high economic value. Therefore, the authors are interested in approximating the amount of coffee production using the Adams Basforth Moulton method. The Adams Bashforth Moulton method is a way of finding a numerical solution at a certain point of a non-linear differential equation with a known initial value. The differential equation is first solved using the fourth-order Runge Kutta method to obtain four initial solutions which are then substituted into the fourth order Adams Bashforth predictor equation. Furthermore, the approximation value is corrected using the fourth-order Adams Moulton corrector equation. If the relative error is less than the stopping criterion , then the iteration is stopped. The iterations are performed 25 times with an interval of [0,25]. The results of the approximation using the Adams Bashforth Moulton method on the Verhults equation in the approximation show that every year the amount of production increases. The results of the total coffee production in Aceh Province in 2022 will reach 71468 tons and in 2023 it will reach 72966 tons and in 2024 it will reach 74465 tons.
PENDAMPINGAN UMKM DESA PEUKAN LANGSA MELALUI PELATIHAN MANAJEMEN KEUANGAN DENGAN PEMANFAATAN APLIKASI DIGITAL Saumi, Fazrina; Fitria, Liza; Pahlevi, Riza; Muliani, Fitra; Amalia, Rizki
Martabe : Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol 7, No 11 (2024): MARTABE : JURNAL PENGABDIAN MASYARAKAT
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Tapanuli Selatan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31604/jpm.v7i11.4746-4751

Abstract

Langsa merupakan Kota yang produktif di semua bidang termasuk UMKM. Berdasarkan data Perindagkop, dari tahun 2014 sampai dengan 2016 terjadi peningkatan jumlah UMKM, selanjutnya pada tahun 2019 terjadi peningkatan Kembali. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa Kota Langsa merupakan Kota yang dikenal sebagai Kota jasa, sehingga berpotensial dalam meningkatkan perekonomian daerah. Berdasarkan hal tersebut, agar dapat mempertahankan peningkatan kualitas serta kuantitas dari UMKM itu sendiri, maka perlu ada upaya dalam hal mengelola baik dari segi produk, keuangan dan pemasaran. Pengelolaan keuangan dalam suatu badan usaha adalah sangat penting, Hal ini disampaikan oleh Bapak Kepala desa Peukan Langsa bahwa pengetahuan terkait manajemen keuangan menjadi hal yang sangat berperan dalam keberlanjutan suatu UMKM. Pengelolaan keuangan pada UMKM secara umum di Kota Langsa masih bersifat konvensional sehingga di rasa belum efektif untuk mengelola keuangan suatu badan Usaha. Tujuan dari kegiatan ini yaitu mendampingi dan melakukan pembinaan kepada pelaku usaha dalam pemanfaatan aplikasi digital dalam mengelola keuangan. Pelaksanaan PKM berjalan dengan sangat sukses, semua peserta dan mitra UMKM telah memperoleh pengetahuan dan informasi tentang penggunaan aplikasi digital Paper.id dalam pengelolaan keuangan UMKM. Saat ini, hampir 90% dari peserta sudah memiliki pemahaman yang baik tentang cara mengoperasikan aplikasi Paper.id.
PENINGKATAN KAPASITAS DAN PEMASARAN PRODUK DALAM UPAYA EDUKASI KONSERVASI LINGKUNGAN BAGI KELOMPOK PEREMPUAN DI AREA RESTORASI HUTAN TENGGULUN ACEH Armanda, Fahmy; Saumi, Fazrina; Wibowo Atmaja, Teuku Hadi; Murni, Mayang
J-COSCIS : Journal of Computer Science Community Service Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): J-COSCIS : Journal of Computer Science Community Service
Publisher : Fakultas Ilmu Komputer

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31849/jcoscis.v5i1.25854

Abstract

Kelompok Perempuan Cendana merupakan kelompok masyarakat yang bergerak pada aspek pemberdayaan perempuan yang berada di sekitar area Kawasan Restorasi Hutan Tenggulun. Kelompok masyarakat ini bersama mitra terkait telah melakukan banyak kegiatan pemberdayaan termasuk telah mampu memproduksi produk tepung pisang yang bahan bakunya berasal dari perkebunan masyarakat di sekitar kawasan restorasi hutan. Namun, produk yang mereka hasilkan masih dikemas secara sederhana dan pemasaran produk juga tidak luas. Tampilan produk yang baik akan mampu meningkatkan nilai penjual suatu produk. Dengan pemasaran yang luas melalui pemsaran digital akan memperluas jangkauan pasar sehingga produk akan dikenal oleh banyak calon konsumen dan meningkatkan pendapatan kelompok. Kegiatan pengabdian ini dilakukan untuk memberikan pendampingan kepada kelompok usaha perempuan pada aspek peningkatan kemasan produk, pemasaran digital, dan memberikan penyadartahuan terkait pentingnya menjaga kawasan restorasi hutan. Sehingga diharapkan dengan kegiatan pengabdian ini, kelompok perempuan yang selama ini telah melakukan kegiatan produksi dapat meningkatkan kapasitas produk melalui kemasan yang menarik, penjualan secara luas melalui toko digital, serta semakin memiliki kesadaran untuk menjaga lingkungan sekitar Kawasan Restorasi Hutan Tenggulun.
MODEL REGRESI UNTUK MENGANALISIS HUBUNGAN ANTARA PRODUKSI PALA DAN PRODUK DOMESTIK REGIONAL BRUTO INDONESIA Daratullaila, Daratullaila; Ndiva, Shahnaz Tanzilla; Kurniawan, Agus; Audiyah, Tita; Ginting, Lestari Imala; Saumi, Fazrina
Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika Malikussaleh Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): Jurnal Pendidikan Matematika Malikussaleh
Publisher : LPPM UNIMAL

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29103/jpmm.v5i1.21220

Abstract

Nutmeg (Myristica fragrans Houtt) originates from the Maluku Islands, Indonesia, and has now spread to various countries such as Grenada, India, Sri Lanka, and the United States. As a leading commodity, nutmeg plays a crucial role in the economic growth of its producing regions in Indonesia. This study aims to analyze the relationship between nutmeg production and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) in Indonesia. The method used is a regression model. The results indicate a very strong positive correlation between nutmeg production and GRDP. The third-degree polynomial regression model, Y = 11,440,856 - 954X + 0.0430X² - 0.000000X³, with Y representing GRDP and X representing nutmeg production, is identified as the best model for explaining this relationship.
PELATIHAN PENGGUNAAN MAGIC SCHOOL AI SEBAGAI UPAYA AKSELERASI KEGIATAN PADA PLATFORM MERDEKA MENGAJAR (PMM) BAGI GURU-GURU DI SMAN UNGGUL ACEH TIMUR Saumi, Fazrina; Amalia, Rizki; Muliani, Fitra; Mawarni; Sari, Intan; Armanda, Fahmi
Jurnal Masyarakat Berdikari dan Berkarya (Mardika) Vol 3 No 1 (2025): Jurnal Masyarakat Berdikari dan Berkarya (MARDIKA)
Publisher : Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Samudra

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55377/mardika.v3i1.11843

Abstract

The Merdeka Mengajar (PMM) Platform developed by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Research, and Technology (Kemendikbudristek) is a forum for teachers to share, collaborate and develop teacher competencies in preparing optimal learning. However, it is unfortunate that teacher activities in accessing PMM are still far from what is expected. One of the reasons is because teachers' time to study and develop learning plans or media is very limited. Therefore, there needs to be a contribution from lecturers and students through community service activities to assist teachers. The purpose of this activity is to assist teachers in preparing administration and learning equipment by utilizing MagicSchool.ai. The results of the survey showed that a) 70.8% stated that participants strongly agreed that they were skilled at using MagicSchool AI; b) 66.7% stated that they strongly agreed that the activities had an impact and the team was directly involved in socialization and training; c) 70.8% strongly agreed that participants were satisfied and fully involved in PKM activities.