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All Journal Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Ekonomi-Qu (Jurnal Penelitian Ilmu Ekonomi) Jurnal Tirtayasa Ekonomika (Tirtayasa Economica Journal) Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Jurnal EK dan BI Abdimasku : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Economic Development Analysis Journal
SAMSUL ARIFIN
Universitas Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa
Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Health Professions Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Social Sciences

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Kinerja Ekspor Indonesia: Dampak Pandemi COVID-19 vs Perang Rusia Arifin, Samsul
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol. 23, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

Is COVID an obstacle to Indonesia’s trade flows vs. war to boost Indonesia’s exports? Application of the Gravity model using the OLS panel data fixed effect method to address the endogeneity problem for the 2018q1–2022q3 period. The significant positive results of exporters’ and importers’ GDP and the significant negatif results of distance prove the validity of the gravity model. The significant negatif results of the COVID-19 dummy and the significant positive results of the dummy war show that Indonesia’s exports with trading partners during COVID-19 have decreased, while the impact of the war was able to encourage an increase in international trade flows through increased imports to Indonesia. CAFTA will increase trading volume, but the effect will be insignificant. The potential to increase Indonesia’s exports going forward is in line with the end of COVID-19 and still the war.
Monetary Policy and Trade: An Engine for Economic Growth Samsul Arifin
Economics Development Analysis Journal Vol 12 No 2 (2023): Economics Development Analysis Journal
Publisher : Economics Development Department, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/edaj.v12i2.65288

Abstract

Amidst on the debate of the trade openness (TO) importance in influencing an economic growth (EG) and the central bank policy rate (CBPR), it is necessary to analyze the long-term relationship by using ARDL. This paper aims to analyze the CBPR and TO influence on EG in ASEAN -3. This study examines the EG model which focuses on the effect of CBPR and the ratio of exports in which plus imports divided by GDP as a measure of TO in ASEAN-3. The Data was collected from IFS for Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand for the period 2007q1-2022q2. The ARDL test method is used to determine the long-term relationship among the EG, TO and CBPR variables with different degrees of the integration. The FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR testing is for check robustness. The study show that CBPR has a positive effect on the EG in ASEAN-3, although it is only in Indonesia, and in Philippines which is statistically significant. The TO positive effect on the EG in Indonesia and in Thailand, but it is not significant and it has a TO statistically significant negative effect on EG in Philippines. The importance of this research given the recent interest in globalization activities, so the role of TO has become very important. A better TO understanding whether import dominance or vice versa helps in understanding the impact of globalization on the country economy. This finding emphasizes on the export importance over the imports in the economy. However, there is not an academic research looks at the long-term relationship between monetary policy and trade openness on the economic growth with the various econometric models.
Co-Authors Firmansyah Firmansyah Indra Suhendra Lilis Hoeriyah Mayasya, Shany sayifullah sayifullah Sayifullah Sayifullah Sayifullah Sayifullah Shany Mayasya Sugeng Setyadi Yuni Noor Annisa