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All Journal Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Ekonomi-Qu (Jurnal Penelitian Ilmu Ekonomi) Jurnal Tirtayasa Ekonomika (Tirtayasa Economica Journal) Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Jurnal EK dan BI Abdimasku : Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Economic Development Analysis Journal
SAMSUL ARIFIN
Universitas Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa
Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Health Professions Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Social Sciences

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Kinerja Ekspor Indonesia: Dampak Pandemi COVID-19 vs Perang Rusia Arifin, Samsul
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia Vol. 23, No. 2
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Is COVID an obstacle to Indonesia’s trade flows vs. war to boost Indonesia’s exports? Application of the Gravity model using the OLS panel data fixed effect method to address the endogeneity problem for the 2018q1–2022q3 period. The significant positive results of exporters’ and importers’ GDP and the significant negatif results of distance prove the validity of the gravity model. The significant negatif results of the COVID-19 dummy and the significant positive results of the dummy war show that Indonesia’s exports with trading partners during COVID-19 have decreased, while the impact of the war was able to encourage an increase in international trade flows through increased imports to Indonesia. CAFTA will increase trading volume, but the effect will be insignificant. The potential to increase Indonesia’s exports going forward is in line with the end of COVID-19 and still the war.
Monetary Policy and Trade: An Engine for Economic Growth Samsul Arifin
Economics Development Analysis Journal Vol 12 No 2 (2023): Economics Development Analysis Journal
Publisher : Economics Development Department, Universitas Negeri Semarang, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/edaj.v12i2.65288

Abstract

Amidst on the debate of the trade openness (TO) importance in influencing an economic growth (EG) and the central bank policy rate (CBPR), it is necessary to analyze the long-term relationship by using ARDL. This paper aims to analyze the CBPR and TO influence on EG in ASEAN -3. This study examines the EG model which focuses on the effect of CBPR and the ratio of exports in which plus imports divided by GDP as a measure of TO in ASEAN-3. The Data was collected from IFS for Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand for the period 2007q1-2022q2. The ARDL test method is used to determine the long-term relationship among the EG, TO and CBPR variables with different degrees of the integration. The FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR testing is for check robustness. The study show that CBPR has a positive effect on the EG in ASEAN-3, although it is only in Indonesia, and in Philippines which is statistically significant. The TO positive effect on the EG in Indonesia and in Thailand, but it is not significant and it has a TO statistically significant negative effect on EG in Philippines. The importance of this research given the recent interest in globalization activities, so the role of TO has become very important. A better TO understanding whether import dominance or vice versa helps in understanding the impact of globalization on the country economy. This finding emphasizes on the export importance over the imports in the economy. However, there is not an academic research looks at the long-term relationship between monetary policy and trade openness on the economic growth with the various econometric models.
MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES IN THE NEW NORMAL ERA: A SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW Samsul Arifin; Sayifullah Sayifullah
Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol 22, No 2 (2022): Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Pembangunan
Publisher : EP FEB UNS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20961/jiep.v22i2.56222

Abstract

This paper aims to provide a systematic literature review (SLR) of studies conducted on the economic impact of the epidemic using the DSGE model. This research is guided by the PRISMA Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses) statement, utilizing a systematic literature review (SLR) with Harzing's Publish or Perish software and Google Scholar as the primary sources, specifically focusing on the DSGE model's application. Under PRISMA, research is researched through three processes: 1) Defining clear research questions that allow systematic research, 2) Identifying inclusion and exclusion criteria, and 3) Examining a large database of scientific literature within a set time. A total of 11 out of 38 papers were identified and analyzed to provide a better understanding of the epidemiological model, the tradeoff of the lockdown policy between health and economy and the methodology adopted in the previous studies while the rest of the most recent studies appear to be related to the DSGE model with the adaptation of the epidemiological model during the Covid-19 pandemic. A total of four studies agree that many countries are imposing “lockdowns,” if not generally implementing “social distancing” to contain and potentially eliminate the virus.
Co-Authors Firmansyah Firmansyah Indra Suhendra Lilis Hoeriyah Mayasya, Shany Sayifullah Sayifullah sayifullah sayifullah Sayifullah Sayifullah Sayifullah Sayifullah Shany Mayasya Sugeng Setyadi Yuni Noor Annisa