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All Journal SITEKIN: Jurnal Sains, Teknologi dan Industri Jurnal Sahid Mengabdi
Saputra, Aryo
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Religion Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Other

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A Predictive Model for Unplanned Well Down in Heavy Oil Operations to Support Operational Decision-Making Saputra, Aryo; ER, Mahendrawathi
SITEKIN: Jurnal Sains, Teknologi dan Industri Vol 23, No 1 (2025): December 2025
Publisher : Fakultas Sains dan Teknologi Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24014/sitekin.v23i1.38613

Abstract

The decline in Heavy Oil (HO) production at PT XYZ is strongly influenced by unplanned well down events, which generate significant Loss Production Opportunity (LPO) and disrupt the achievement of production targets. This study aims to develop and compare two time series forecasting methods, ARIMA and Holt‑Winters Exponential Smoothing (HWES), to predict future well down incidents caused by Mechanical Pumping Unit (MPU) failures. Model accuracy was evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and the Seasonal ARIMA (2,2,1) Model was identified as the most accurate, achieving a MAPE value of 4.56 percent, significantly outperforming both HWES variants, which produced much higher errors (highest MAPE 27.37 percent). Using this model, the estimated financial loss in the Base Case scenario is projected at Rp 13.35 billion per year, with the worst sase scenario potentially reaching Rp 41.80 billion. The forecasting results provide substantial managerial value by supporting informed operational decision‑making. Three key strategic implications are obtained. First, financial risk control can be strengthened by using the Upper Bound 95 percent as a basis for justifying MPU upgrade budgets. Second, production target planning becomes more realistic by incorporating predicted LPO values. Third, integrating LPO‑based thresholds into KPI monitoring establishes an early warning system that shifts operational control from reactive to anticipatory.
INOVASI PENDIDIKAN UNTUK MENINGKATKAN KESADARAN LINGKUNGAN SISWA SD DALAM KEGIATAN JAMBORE DI DESA MALASARI Purwati, Dewi; Fadilah, Hafid; Maulana, Taupik; Fajar, Muhamad Andika; Hermala, Adinda; Sari, Rosa Fiolita; Yustian, Naurah Rabbani; Fitriyani, Sagita; Lisan, Asep Maulana Faisal; Fadilah, Muhamad Reza; Humairoh, Aninda Nishfi; Saputra, Aryo; Ramadhan, Ardika Rifky; Apriansyah; Al-Rasyid, Harun
SAHID MENGABDI: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Institut Agama Islam Sahid Bogor Vol 4 No 02 (2025): DESEMBER 2025
Publisher : Lembaga Penelitan dan Pengabdian Masyarakat Institut Agama Islam Sahid

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56406/jurnalsahidmengabdijurnalpengabdianmasyarakat.v4i02.884

Abstract

This study aims to examine the effectiveness of educational innovation in enhancing elementary school students’ environmental awareness through jamboree activities in Malasari Village. The subjects of this research were elementary school students participating in the jamboree, with a focus on implementing experiential learning strategies in outdoor settings. To measure students’ metacognitive awareness regarding environmental issues, the Metacognitive Awareness Inventory was used and adapted to the context of environmental education. The findings reveal that educational innovation through jamboree activities improved students’ understanding of the importance of environmental conservation, fostered caring attitudes, and encouraged active participation in environmentally friendly practices. This study highlights that experiential, outdoor-based education can be an effective strategy for instilling environmental awareness and values from an early age.
Co-Authors Al-Rasyid, Harun Apriansyah Dewi Purwati Fadilah, Hafid Fadilah, Muhamad Reza Fajar, Muhamad Andika Fitriyani, Sagita Hermala, Adinda Humairoh, Aninda Nishfi Lisan, Asep Maulana Faisal Mahendrawathi ER Maulana, Taupik Ramadhan, Ardika Rifky Sari, Rosa Fiolita Yustian, Naurah Rabbani