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All Journal Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application on Teaching and Research
Ikhsan, Easbi
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Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Mathematics

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Peramalan Suhu Rata – Rata Kota Padang Panjang dengan Membandingkan Metode SARIMA dan Holt – Winter Additive Putri, Fadhira Vitasha; Ikhsan, Easbi; Fitri, Fadhilah
VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its application on Teaching and Research Vol. 6 No. 03 (2024)
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika Fakultas MIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/variansiunm237

Abstract

Padang Panjang City, situated at an altitude of 650 to 850 meters above sea level and surrounded by high mountains, experiences significant temperature changes that affect various aspects of life such as public health, agriculture, and tourism. This study aims to forecast the monthly average temperature of Padang Panjang City from January 2017 to December 2023 by comparing SARIMA and Holt-Winters Additive forecasting methods. The results show that the SARIMA method, with an MSD value of 0.2206, is more accurate compared to the Holt-Winters Additive method, which has an MSD value of 0.29821. With the SARIMA model as the best method, the forecast indicates that the highest average temperature in Padang Panjang City will reach 23.1418 degrees Celsius in May 2024. These results are expected to provide a strong basis for planning and decision-making related to the temperature changes occurring in Padang Panjang City.
PERBANDINGAN METODE DOUBLE MOVING AVERAGE DAN DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (BROWN) TERHADAP TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN TERBUKA DI KOTA PADANG PANJANG Fishuri, Nufhika; Ikhsan, Easbi; Fitri, Fadhilah; Permana, Dony
Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Vol. 6 No. 1 (2025): Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistik
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/lb.v6i1.945

Abstract

Unemployment occurs because of a mismatch between the demand for jobs and job seekers' qualifications. Many job vacancies require diploma or degree graduates, so unemployment is one of the problems faced by Padang Panjang City. To overcome TPT in Padang Panjang City, one of them needs to do forecasting to see how the TPT rate will occur in the coming year. This research uses a forecasting method by comparing the Double Moving Average (DMA) and Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) forecasting values of the unemployment rate in Padang Panjang City from 2006 to 2023. This forecasting is done to provide insight into the condition of the workforce in Padang Panjang City in the future. The forecasting results show that in 2024, there will be an increase of 0.42%, and for the next 2 years, there will be a decrease.
Co-Authors Fishuri, Nufhika Fitri, Fadhilah Permana, Dony Putri, Fadhira Vitasha