Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 12 Documents
Search

Electricity Demand Forecasting Using a Hybrid ARIMA and Ridge Regression Model Pradhipta Seno Parlinto; Eko Adhi Setiawan
Jurnal Energi Baru dan Terbarukan Vol 7, No 2 (2026): Mei 2026
Publisher : Program Studi Magister Energi, Sekolah Pascasarjana, Universitas Diponegoro, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/jebt.2026.31328

Abstract

Effective energy system planning requires energy demand projections that are reliable, stable, and easy to implement, particularly under conditions of limited historical data and computational resources. However, many existing artificial intelligence–based forecasting approaches are highly complex, difficult to interpret, and time-consuming to develop, which reduces their practicality for students and researchers who aim to focus on solution-oriented energy system analysis. This paper proposes a simple yet reliable energy demand projection framework by combining statistical time series modeling and machine learning methods, namely Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Ridge Regression. The ARIMA model is employed to capture the temporal dynamics of energy consumption and to construct a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario based on historical trends. The ARIMA projections are subsequently used as inputs for the Ridge Regression model, which captures the multivariate relationships between energy demand and correlated socio-economic factors. The results indicate that ARIMA effectively represents historical consumption patterns but tends to produce conservative projections. In contrast, Ridge Regression provides more stable and robust estimates under conditions of high multicollinearity and limited sample size. The integration of these two methods results in an efficient, interpretable, and easily reproducible modeling framework. The proposed approach is intended to help students and researchers reduce the time required for energy demand forecasting, allowing them to focus more on solution development and sustainable energy system planning.
Techno-Economic Analysis of On-Grid Rooftop PV Systems Integrated with BESS for Meeting the Energy Needs of Residential EV Home Charging Customers in Jakarta Sonia Eka Putri; Akhmad Herman Yuwono; Eko Adhi Setiawan
International Journal of Recent Technology and Applied Science (IJORTAS) Vol 7 No 2: September 2025
Publisher : Lamintang Education and Training (LET) Centre

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36079/lamintang.ijortas-0702.851

Abstract

The growing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in Indonesia, especially in urban areas like Jakarta, is expected to increase household electricity consumption. Rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) systems integrated with battery energy storage systems (BESS) offer a promising solution to supply clean and self-sufficient energy. This study aims to assess the techno-economic feasibility of on-grid rooftop PV systems combined with BESS for residential EV home charging in Jakarta under various export compensation schemes and cost scenarios. Using the HOMER Grid software, three system configurations were simulated: grid-only, PV + BESS without export, and PV + BESS with 65% export compensation. The optimal setup consists of an 8.97 kW PV and 5 kWh BESS, yielding an internal rate of return (IRR) of 18%, a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of $0.042/kWh, and a payback period of 5 years. Sensitivity analysis highlights that a minimum export compensation of 40% and projected cost reductions, especially in BESS are critical for long-term viability. A larger system with 15 kWh BESS becomes economically feasible after 2028, achieving a 16% IRR. Integrating rooftop PV and BESS could reduce CO₂ emissions by up to 9,932 kg/year compared to a grid-only system. Policy recommendations include export compensation of at least 40%, targeted investment incentives, and co-investment models involving PLN, PV providers, and EV dealers.