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PREDICTION OF SOUTHERN OSCILLATION USING THE INDONESIAN THROUGHFLOW VARIABILITY Aldrian, Edvin; Arifian, Jon
Marine Research in Indonesia Vol 34 No 1 (2009)
Publisher : Research Center for Oceanography - Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14203/mri.v34i1.516

Abstract

Atmospheric boundary layer derived from NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for the period of 1974 to 2002 has been used as boundary forcings for the global ocean model Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM). The ocean model is a curvilinear grid model, whose poles are located over mainland China and over the Australian continent, thus focusing on the maritime continent. The model simulates major Indonesian throughflow passages that focus on six cannels representing three inlets and three outlets (the Makassar, Lifamatola, Halmahera, Lombok, Ombai and Timor Straits). The model results have been validated using the Arlindo observation Project over the Makassar Strait in the period of January 1997 to February 1998, which fortunately was during a strong El Niño episode. The model simulation results were then investigated for their prediction capabilities of any of those channels in foreseeing the incoming southern oscillation events. Temporal correlation analysis with lag and advance time correlation methods were performed against simulated data at all levels on those channels. Variabilities in depth of 74 to 200m (thermocline depth) show the strongest correlation with SOI index (Darwin minus Tahiti mean sea level pressure). The temperature and salinity correlations with SOI are the highest with one-month in advance over Lifamatola Strait (0.77) and two-month in advance over the Makassar Straits (0.74). These significant correlations highlight the important of those two straits in prediction of incoming southern oscillation that usually leads to ENSO episode which brings most of the time devastating impact to economy, agriculture and ecosystem.
COMPARISON OF TOTAL SUSPENDED PARTICULATE (TSP) MEASUREMENT IN URBAN AND SUBURBAN AREAS OF BALI DURING NYEPI DAY 2015 Nuraini, Tri Astuti; Permana, Donaldi Sukma; Satyaningsih, Ratna; Anggraeni, Rian; Aldrian, Edvin
Forum Geografi Vol 33, No 2 (2019): December 2019
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23917/forgeo.v33i2.8670

Abstract

Nyepi or the Balinese Day of Silence (DOS) is a day when people celebrate every New Year according to the Balinese calendar (Saka). On that day, all resident activities were very restricted, with no outdoor activities. This event, which only lasted for 24 hours, is a unique period to conduct air quality measurements such as Total Suspended Particulate (TSP) for assessing the influence of human activities. This study only focuses on TSP monitoring before, during and after the DOS and its comparison with the meteorological data. TSP concentration measurements were conducted in 2 urban areas (Badung and Ubung) and a sub-urban area (Singaraja) from March 17 to March 25, 2015. The results show that TSP concentrations are negatively correlated with temperature and wind speed at each location. Hourly TSP concentrations during DOS are lower than the averaged TSP concentrations before and after DOS. During DOS, TSP concentrations decreased significantly in urban areas by 73-78% relative to regular days, which is likely due to drastically decreasing of human activities. In suburban areas, the decrease of TSP concentration was about 59%. These results show that human activities highly influence the air quality.
ANALISIS PEMBANGUNAN RENDAH KARBON STUDI KASUS PROPINSI LAMPUNG Adi, Seno; aldrian, edvin; nuraini, dian; saroja, damayanti; tejakusuma, iwan G
Jurnal Sains dan Teknologi Indonesia Vol. 13 No. 2 (2011)
Publisher : Badan Pengkajian dan Penerapan Teknologi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1309.324 KB) | DOI: 10.29122/jsti.v13i2.884

Abstract

The increasing trend of CO2 emission globally, has been creating climate change in some areas in the world. The impact of climate change could cause disaster for human life such as drought and flood, health deseases, etc. Currently many programs and schemes are introduced to reduce CO2 emission. The low carbon development is one of those programs which is the economic development has to take into acount the CO2 emission reduction. This study found 90 % of the CO2 emision came from forestry sector, especially deforestation and fires. The recent CO2 emission was 70,3 MtCO2e in 2005 and estimated 79 MtCO2e in 2020, then finally will be 93,5 MtCO2e. Therefore mitigation actions should be focused on the forestry sector, these are reforestation & afforestation, REDD, mangrove rehabilitation, agroforestry development, and fire protection. These action programs potentially could reduce the CO2 emission as high as 76,8% in 2030.
APLIKASI METODE CURVE NUMBER UNTUK MEMPRESENTASIKAN HUBUNGAN CURAH HUJAN DAN ALIRAN PERMUKAAN DI DAS CILIWUNG HULU – JAWA BARAT Tikno, Sunu; Hariyanto, Teguh; Anwar, Nadjadji; Karsidi, Asep; Aldrian, Edvin
Jurnal Teknologi Lingkungan Vol. 13 No. 1 (2012)
Publisher : Center for Environmental Technology - Agency for Assessment and Application of Technology

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1149.735 KB) | DOI: 10.29122/jtl.v13i1.1402

Abstract

Aliran permukaan/limpasan (run off) merupakan salah satu variabel hidrologi yang sangat penting di dalam menunjang kegiatan pengembangan sumber daya air. Metode prediksi yang handal untuk menghitung jumlah dan laju limpasan yang berasal dari permukaan tanah dan bergerak menuju sungai di suatu DAS yang tidak dilengkapi alat ukur (ungaged watershed) adalah suatu pekerjaan yang sangat sulit dan memerlukanwaktu yang banyak. Penelitian ini dilakukan di DAS Ciliwung Hulu, yang merupakan daerah penting dalam kotribusi banjir di Jakarta. Untuk mengetahaui run off  yang terjadi, digunakan data curah hujan dan debit Tahun 2007-2009. Sebagai model, untuk mengetahui run off menggunakan peta penggunaan lahan, peta jenis tanah, dan topografi. Peta-peta tersebut diolah dengan menggunakan Arcview, sehingga didapatkannilai CN. Berdasarkan analisis perhitungan, besarnya debit mendekati 50% dari tebal hujan. Kondisi ini mengindikasikan bahwa kondisi DAS Ciliwung Hulu sudah tidak mampu lagi menyerap curah hujan dengan baik. Korelasi antara hasil prediksi run off model yang menggunakan CN dengan perhitungan run off observasi cukup baik. Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa metode Curve Number cukup dapat mepresentaskan hubungancurah hujan dengan aliran permukaan (run off). kata kunci : Run off observasi, run off model, curve number AbstractRun off (surface flow) is one of the most important hydrological variable in supporting the activities of water resources development. A reliable prediction method to calculate the amount and rate of runoff from the land surface caused by the rain that falls in a watershed that is not equipped with measuring devices (un gauge watershed) is a verydifficult job and requires a lot of time. The research was conducted in the watershed Ciliwung Hulu, which is an important area in relation to the incidence of flooding in Jakarta. Curve Number (CN) method can be used to predict the amount of runoff from a watershed. This model required input of rainfall; land cover maps; soil type maps,and topography. The maps are processed using Arc View software, so we get the value of CN. In this study, we used of rainfall and discharge data 2007-2009. Based on the analysis of calculation, known that amount of surface flow approaching 50% of rainfall depth. This condition indicates that the Ciliwung Hulu watershed conditions were not ableand proper to absorb of rainfall. The correlation between the results of run-off prediction models using CN with run-off observation was quite good. This indicated that the Curve Number method could be able to represent the relationship of rainfall with surface flow (run off) and also to predict runoff key words: Run off observation, run-off model, curve number
AN INDICATION OF SEA-AIR INTERACTION THAT AFFECTS THE CLIMATE PATTERN OVER THE MOLUCCAN SEA Aldrian, Edvin
Jurnal Sains & Teknologi Modifikasi Cuaca Vol 3, No 2 (2002): December 2002
Publisher : BPPT

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (497.883 KB) | DOI: 10.29122/jstmc.v3i2.2170

Abstract

Starting with the regional annual cycle of rainfall over Molucca, which follow the sun eclipse movement instead of the common Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) movement, a suspicion of the sea-air interaction driven climate pattern comes up. The empirical study on rainfall ? sea surface temperature (SST) relationship clarifies a function of rainfall accumulation to SST. A strong evident on the interaction comes from the result of Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM). The model shows a surface water intrusion that comes from west Pacific into the north Molucca Sea before it enter the mainstream of the Indonesian throughflow in the north end of the Makasar strait. Most of the throughflow, as shown by the model, come from north Pacific, enter the Makasar strait southward and go into the Indian ocean through the Lombok strait (mostly) and a strait between Flores and Timor island. The intrusion of surface water in north Molucca conserves the warm sea surface temperature and keep a high convective area.Diawali dengan pembagian region berdasarkan pola hujan tahunan di Maluku, yangmengikuti pergerakan tahunan matahari dan bukannya yang biasa yaitu Inter TropicalConvergence Zone (ITCZ), kecurigaan akan adanya interaksi laut udara yang mendorong pola iklim timbul. Studi empiris mengenai hubungan hujan dan suhu permukaan laut menjelaskan fungsi akumulasi hujan terhadap suhu laut. Indikasi kuat adanya interaksi berasal dari keluaran model global sirkulasi laut. Model menunjukkan adanya intrusi arus permukaan dari pasifik barat ke Maluku utara sebelum masuk ke alur utama dari arus lintas Indonesia di ujung utara selat makasar. Sebagian besar arus lintas, sebagaimana dituntukkan oleh model, berasal dari utara, memasuki selat Makasar ke selatan dan menuju ke samudra Indonesia kebanyakan melalui selat Lombok dan sebagian kecil melalui selat antara pulau Flores dan Timor. Intrusi arus permukaan di utara Maluku menjaga kehangatan suhu muka laut dan menjaga daerah konvektif aktif.
PEMBAGIAN IKLIM INDONESIA BERDASARKAN POLA CURAH HUJAN DENGAN METODA “DOUBLE CORRELATION” Aldrian, Edvin
Jurnal Sains & Teknologi Modifikasi Cuaca Vol 2, No 1 (2001): June 2001
Publisher : BPPT

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (594.596 KB) | DOI: 10.29122/jstmc.v2i1.2142

Abstract

Pembagian wilayah atau region iklim Indonesia berdasarkan pola curah hujan tahunandibahas disini. Sebuah metoda yang dinamakan metoda ?double correlation? diperkenalkan untuk tujuan di atas. Dengan metoda regionalisasi yang dipakai dihasilkan tiga region iklim berdasarkan pola curah hujan tahunan. Region pertama adalah region A yang terletak di wilayah selatan Indonesia yang disebut region monsun Australia karena region ini lebih banyak dipengaruhi oleh monsun Australia. Region kedua adalah region B di wilayah barat laut Indonesia, yang disebut sebagai region monsun passat tenggara karena dipengaruhi oleh monsun ini. Region terakhir adalah region C atau region arus lintas laut Indonesia (arlindo) karena terletak pada daerah aliran arlindo. Pola hasil dari regionalisasi ini dibandingkan dengan pola pada region yang sama pada keluaran model reanalisa ECMWF dan ECHAM.A regionalization of Indonesian climate based on its annual rainfall patterns has been done. A new method called the ?double correlation method? was introduced and used for such purpose. With this regionalization method there are three climate regions based on their annual rainfall patterns. The first region or region A lies in south Indonesia and is called the Australian monsoon region because it is much affected by the Australian monsoon. The second region or region B lies in northwest Indonesia, which is called as the NE Passat region because it is much affected by that monsoon. The last region or region C lies over the Indonesian Throughflow and is called as the Indonesian Throughflow region. Patterns resulted from this regionalization method are compared to those of their corresponding regions from the output of ECMWF reanalysis and a Global Circulation Model ECHAM.
THE SIMULATION OF CO- AND CROSS-POLAR CHARACTERS OF RAINFALL DROPLETS AND CHAFF Aldrian, Edvin
Jurnal Sains & Teknologi Modifikasi Cuaca Vol 3, No 2 (2002): December 2002
Publisher : BPPT

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (12387.377 KB) | DOI: 10.29122/jstmc.v3i2.2166

Abstract

The error analyses and simulations of the co- and cross-polar characters of chaff andrainfall have been done. Error analyses include the ZDR distribution, numbers ofscaterers, the orientation and shape dependence, the system DC bias, the channel gainimbalance and the quantification errors. There is no effect of number of scatterers on the noise. The orientation and shape dependence study indicates wider frequency distribution of ZDR from chaff is because of the chaff's needle shape. The orientation of chaff contributes insignificantly to noises The noises has been reduced considerably after eliminating system DC bias and gaining more channel balance. Further possible source of error is the quantification error in data analyses. LDR is more useful than ZDR when both chaff and rain are present. The result suggests a possibility of using chaff?s LDR in tracing air movement.Analisa error dan simulasi sifat co- dan cross-polar dari chaff dan butir -butir hujan telahdilakukan. Analisa error termasuk penyebaran ZDR, jumlah chaff atau bidang pemantul(scatterers), orientasi dan bentuk dari chaff, factor kesalahan DC, keseimbangan keduakanal pada radar dan factor kesalahan kuantitatif unit. Tidak ada sumbangan kesalahandari jumlah scatterers pada noise. Penelitian orientasi dan bentuk menunjukkan lebarnya penyebaran ZDR pada chaff karena bentuknya. Orientasi dari chaff tidak menyumbang factor kesalahan yang berarti. Noise telah dapat dikurangi hingga minimal setelah menghilangkan factor kesalahan system DC dan menyeimbangkan kedua kanal. Faktor kesalahan lainnya yang mungkin adalah kesalahan kuantitatif unit pada analisis data. LDR lebih berguna dari ZDR ketika kedua duanya yaitu chaff dan butir hujan berada. Hasil tersebut menyarankan kegunaan chaff LDR untuk pemantauan pergerakan udara.
THE SPECTRUM THRESHOLD FILTER METHOD FOR CHAFF AND RAIN Aldrian, Edvin
Jurnal Sains & Teknologi Modifikasi Cuaca Vol 3, No 1 (2002): June 2002
Publisher : BPPT

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (440.183 KB) | DOI: 10.29122/jstmc.v3i1.2157

Abstract

Polarization doppler radar observations of chaff and rain were conducted. At least in thevertical pointing case, the spectrum of chaff is much narrower than that of rain. In dataanalysis a new method of filtering chaff data from noise is used. This filter method, named the spectrum threshold filter method, was also applied for rain data for comparison. Instead of using the average power as in the conventional method this fil ter method utilizes the doppler spectral peak power. Consequently this filter method is able to detect a presence of even a single strong doppler velocity signals. Hence the performance of this filter is better with metallic strips, such as chaff, than raindrops. The variation of the filter? s threshold will change significantly the filtered rainfall area but not the chaff one. The filter technique is also useful to detect a narrow but strong spectral data.Pengamatan hujan dan chaff dengan memakai radar dengan polarisasi doppler telahdilakukan. Paling tidak pada posisi tegak lurus, spektrum dari chaff lebih sempit daripada pada butir hujan. Dalam melakukan analisa data kita telah mengembangkan sebuah metoda filtering untuk memilah data chaff dari noise sekitarnya. Metoda filter ini, yang disebut metoda filter spectrum threshold, juga diterapkan pada data hujan sebagai perbandingan. Daripada memakai kekuatan rata-rata dengan metoda umumnya, metoda filter ini memakai puncak spektrum. Sehingga metoda filter ini dapat mendeteksi keberadaan dari hanya sebuah puncak kecepatan doppler dalam sinyal. Pada akhirnya kinerja metoda filter ini lebih baik untuk aplikasi pada pita-pita logam seperti chaff daripada butiran hujan. Variasi dari batas ambang (threshold) dari filter ini akan mengubah area hujan yang terfilter secara drastis tetapi tidak pada data chaff. Teknik filter ini juga berguna untuk mendeteksi spektrum doppler yang sempit tetapi kuat.
POLA HUJAN RATA-RATA BULANAN WILAYAH INDONESIA; TINJAUAN HASIL KONTUR DATA PENAKAR DENGAN RESOLUSI ECHAM T -42 Aldrian, Edvin
Jurnal Sains & Teknologi Modifikasi Cuaca Vol 1, No 2 (2000): December 2000
Publisher : BPPT

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (442.877 KB) | DOI: 10.29122/jstmc.v1i2.2124

Abstract

Kajian temporal dari sifat iklim Indonesia berdasarkan pola curah hujan rata-rata bulanan telah dilakukan dengan mengacu pada beberapa parameter ECMWF seperti angin 850 mb, OLR dan suhu permukaan. Parameter ECMWF tersebut dapat menjelaskan hampir semua pola kecuali daerah yang terdapat pola gangguan lokal. Dengan kajian temporal ini, penulis menemukan ITCZ, daerah siklon di utara Australia dan aktivitas monsun yang dominan pada beberapa bulan. Hasil lainnya menunjukkan adanya perioda transisi pada bulan April dan Oktober yang dapat dimengerti dari pola angin 850 mb dan suhu permukaan. Juga dijelaskan bahwa puncak hujan tahunan di Bali ke Timor lebih banyak dipengaruhi oleh siklon tropis di utara Australia daripada monsun Asia.Temporal assesment of Indonesian climate characteristic based on monthly rainfall pattern was done with several ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast) parameters; i.e. wind field of 850 mb, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and surface temperature. Those ECMWF parameters could explain almost all rainfall pattern with some exceptional areas which are due to their local disturbances. With this temporal assesment, the author found Inter Tropical Continental Zone (ITCZ), cyclonic area in north of Australia and monsoon activities which are dominant in some specific months. One results of this research shows transitional period existence in April and October which are fully understood by analysis of 850 mb wind and surface temperature. It is also explained that peak of rainfall pattern in Bali - Timor area are much characterized by tropical cyclones in north of Australia rather than by Asian monsoon.
SPATIAL PATTERNS OF ENSO IMPACT ON INDONESIAN RAINFALL Aldrian, Edvin
Jurnal Sains & Teknologi Modifikasi Cuaca Vol 3, No 1 (2002): June 2002
Publisher : BPPT

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (338.712 KB) | DOI: 10.29122/jstmc.v3i1.2154

Abstract

A monthly temporal and spatial assesment on ENSO impact on Indonesian rainfall hasbeen done. The study uses monthly ensemble averages of El Nino and La Nina years from 1961 to 1993. There are 6 El Niño years and 5 La Niña years during that period. Indonesia experiences negative ENSO influences from April on both El Niño (warm phase) and La Niña (cold phase). The influences of ENSO reach their peaks in August and September by both types of events and decay afterward. The influences diminish totally by December. Since the influences occur in the dry season, El Niño contributes a negative impact, while La Niña a positive impact to the Indonesian climate. The maximum spatial extension of ENSO reaches almost all parts of Indonesia except north Sumatera and some parts of Kalimantan. There is an indication of a negative influence of ENSO to the onset of Asian monsoon in the Southeast Asian.Kajian bulanan secara temporal dan geografis tentang pengaruh ENSO terhadap curahhujan Indonesia telah dilakukan. Penelitian ini memakai nilai rata-rata gabungan bulanan dari tahun El Niño dan La Niña dari 1961 hingga 1993. Ada 6 tahun El Niño dan 5 tahun La Niña pada perioda tersebut. Indonesia menerima pengaruh negatif dari ENSO mulai April pada tahun ENSO. Pengaruh ENSO mencapai puncaknya pada bulan Agustus dan September pada keduanya dan menurun setelahnya. Pengaruhnya benar-benar hilang pada bulan Desember. Karena pengaruh ENSO terjadi pada musim kering, El Niño memberikan kontribusi negative terhadap iklim Indonesia, sementara La Niña memberikan kontribusi positive. Luasan daerah pengaruh ENSO yang maksimal terjadi di hampir seluruh wilayah Indonesia kecuali bagian utara Sumatera dan sebagian Kalimantan. Ada indikasi pengaruh negative dari ENSO terhadap kedatangan muson Asia ke wilayah Asia Tenggara.