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Long Term Rainfall Trend of The Brantas Catchment Area, East Java Edvin Aldrian; Yudha Setiawan Djamil
Indonesian Journal of Geography Vol 38, No 1 (2006): Indonesian Journal of Geography
Publisher : Faculty of Geography, Universitas Gadjah Mada

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22146/ijg.2233

Abstract

Spatial and temporal rainfall analyses of the Brantas Catchment Area from 1955 to 2002 based on 40 daily rainfall stations has been performed. To identify the climate pattern for the last five decades, we used the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) followed by the Fast Fourier Transform. By using EOF, we found the monsoonal pattern as the most dominant, which explains about 72% of all variances. The interannual pattern shows a negative trend of the monsoonal strength. From the monthly isohyets for each decade, the rainfall amount appears to decrease significantly during the last five decades, indicated by wider low rainfall amount areas and the orographic effect is detected, indicated by always greater amount in highlands. From rainfall data in mountain and coastal areas, dry periods had been increasing, mainly in lowlands. Thus, the continued imbalance of the dry and wet period is one cause of the monsoonal strength decrease during the last five decades.
SPATIOTEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS OF EXTREME RAINFALL EVENTS OVER JAVA ISLAND, INDONESIA Supari Supari; Sudibyakto Sudibyakto; Janneke Ettema; Edvin Aldrian
Indonesian Journal of Geography Vol 44, No 1 (2012): Indonesian Journal of Geography
Publisher : Faculty of Geography, Universitas Gadjah Mada

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22146/ijg.2391

Abstract

The patterns and trends of extreme daily rainfall within period of 1981 – 2010 have beenanalyzed for Java Island, Indonesia particularly East Java Province. A set of extreme indicesrecommended by WMO were calculated using high quality data from 84 rain stations toexpress the frequency and intensity of those events. The spatial patterns was identified bymapping climatological mean of indices while temporal trends was assessed using the nonparametricMann-Kendal test. The study found that the spatial pattern of extreme rainfallevents over East Java Province is generally characterized by low frequency and intensity inthe coastal area, and high frequency and intensity in the mountainous area. The dominantfinding from trend assessment is not-significant trend. However, the consistently significanttrend was observed in some districts. Rain stations in District of Ponorogo, Ngawi,Bojonegoro, Gresik and Sumenep showed significant negative trend for almost all indiceswhereas significant positive trend was found in District of Surabaya and Pasuruan.
Sistem Peringatan Dini Menghadapi Iklim Ekstrem Edvin Aldrian
Jurnal Sumberdaya Lahan Vol 10, No 2 (2016)
Publisher : Indonesian Center for Agriculture Land Resource Development

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (669.734 KB) | DOI: 10.21082/jsdl.v10n2.2016.%p

Abstract

Abstrak. Dengan letaknya diantara dua benua dan dua samudera serta berada di garis khatulistiwa, maka benua maritim Indonesia merupakan salah satu pusat konveksi utama dunia. Dengan kenyataan demikian maka Indonesia menghadapi risiko yang besar dari tingginya variabilitas iklim dan ekstremitas iklim. Guna menghadapi dampak dari iklim ekstrem maka diperlukan strategi yang mumpuni untuk membuat suatu peringatan dini secara nasional. Dengan desakan jumlah populasi dan kecanggihan teknologi informasi maka kedepan diperlukan sistem peringatan dini yang dapat menjangkau secara luas dan cepat menghadapi perubahan yang terjadi. Sebuah sistem peringatan dini yang juga harus dapat mengantisipasi dampak dan risiko. Sistem peringatan dini yang dibangun merupakan mata rantai dari pengamatan di lapangan, pengolahan data dan analisa serta sistem diseminasi yang memadai. Tulisan ini mengulas sistem peringatan dini iklim untuk sektor pertanian dengan evolusi sistem berbagi data, informasi, sistem informasi dan sistem informasi terkostumisasi. Tujuan akhir yang diupayakan adalah sebuah sistem online yang tanggap terhadap perubahan yang terjadi guna pemanfaatan yang maksimal di sektor pertanian.Abstract. Located between two continents, two oceans, and on the equator, the Indonesian maritime continent is one of the world's major deep convection. With such a reality, Indonesia experiences a substantial risk of high climate variability and climate extremes. In order to deal with the impact of extreme climate, there is a need for a strategy to establish a nationwide early warning. With stressors of demographic tension and technology sophistication, the future early warning system should be broad reaching as well as quickly responsive to face dynamical changes. That early warning system should also be able to anticipate probable impacts and risks. The established system is a chain of observations in the field, data processing and analysis as well as adequate dissemination system. This paper reviews the early warning system that can be done by observation agencies with the user agencies in the agricultural sector through sharing of data, information, information system and customized information system. The ultimate goal being pursued is an online system that is responsive to changes that occur to maximum utilization in the agricultural sector.
EFFECT OF AEROSOL RADIATION INTERACTION (ARI) FROM INCREASING LAND AND FOREST FIRES ON CLOUD FORMATION IN OGAN KOMERING ILIR (SOUTH SUMATRA) Rini Mariana Sibarani; Rahmat Hidayat; Muh. Taufik; Edvin Aldrian
Jurnal Sains & Teknologi Modifikasi Cuaca Vol. 23 No. 1 (2022): June 2022
Publisher : BPPT

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Abstract

Intisari Peningkatan aerosol dapat berpengaruh secara langsung terhadap pertumbuhan awan yang dikenal sebagai efek Aerosol Radiation Interaction (ARI). Hal ini berhubungan dengan sifat penyerapan dan penghamburan radiasi matahari dan menyebabkan terjadinya pengurangan radiasi matahari ke permukaan sebagai sumber energi pada proses pembentukan awan secara konvektif. Efek ARI ini dapat dilihat dari parameter Aerosol Radiative Forcing (ARF). ARF bernilai negatif berarti terjadi pengurangan radiasi, sedangkan bernilai positif berarti terjadi peningkatan radiasi. Meningkatnya kebakaran hutan dan lahan di Kab. Ogan Komering Ilir (Sumatera Selatan) dari Agustus hingga November 2019 menyebabkan peningkatan konsentrasi aerosol, yang ditunjukkan dengan peningkatan nilai Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) berkisar dari 1 menjadi 2. Hal ini ditandai dengan peningkatan AOT Komponen kimia Karbon Organik (OC) berkisar antara 0,3 – 1,2 dan Karbon Hitam (BC) berkisar antara 0,1 – 0,35.  Tulisan ini akan membahas efek ARI dengan menggunakan data reanalysis dari Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications II (MERRA-2) dan ERA5 untuk kasus kebakaran hutan di Kab Ogan Komering. Hasil analisis dari data tersebut menunjukkan adanya efek ARI yang ditunjukkan dari nilai negatif pada ARF radiasi gelombang pendek di permukaan (SFC) dan di puncak atmosfer (TOA), nilai positif pada ARF radiasi gelombang panjang di SFC dan nilai negative ARF radiasi gelombang panjang di TOA. Efek ARI terhadap pembentukan awan juga dibuktikan dengan adanya pengurangan tutupan awan rendah (lcc) serta meningkatnya nilai Convective Inhibition (CIN). Abstract  The aerosols increase can directly affect cloud formation, known as the Aerosol Radiation Interaction (ARI) effect, related to the nature of absorption and scattering of solar radiation and causes a reduction in solar radiation to the surface as an energy source in the process of convective cloud formation. This ARI effect can be seen from the Aerosol Radiative Forcing (ARF) parameter. A negative ARF value means a reduction in radiation, while a positive value represents an increase in radiation. The increased land and forest fires in the Kab. Ogan Komering Ilir (South Sumatra) from August to November 2019 led to an increase in aerosol concentrations, which was indicated by an increase in Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) values ??ranging from 1 to 2. It is characterized by an increase in AOT Organic Carbon (OC) chemical components ranging from 0.3 – 1.2 and Black Carbon (BC) ranging from 0.1 – 0.35. This paper will discuss the effect of ARI using reanalysis data from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications II (MERRA-2) and ERA5 for the case of forest fires in the Ogan Komering District. The results of the study show that there is an ARI effect, characterized by a negative value on the ARF of shortwave radiation at the surface (SFC) and the top of the atmosphere (TOA), a positive value on the ARF of longwave radiation at the SFC, and a negative value of ARF of longwave radiation in the TOA. The effect of ARI on cloud formation is also evidenced by a reduction in low cloud cover (lcc) and an increase in the value of Convective Inhibition (CIN).
Kinematic and Thermodynamic Structures of Mesoscale Convective Systems During Heavy Rainfall in Greater Jakarta Nuryanto, Danang Eko; Pawitan, Hidayat; Hidayat, Rahmat; Aldrian, Edvin
Makara Journal of Science Vol. 22, No. 3
Publisher : UI Scholars Hub

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Abstract

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is a large complex convective cloud system associated with a contiguous rainfall area that contributes significantly to heavy rainfall. This study analyzed the kinematic and thermodynamic structures of MCS during a heavy rainfall event. The MCSs that coincided with the heavy rainfall event and covered GJ occurred on January 17, 2013, 2014, and February 9, 2015. The three MCS cases were described from satellite observations over GJ during heavy rainfall. The main data consisted of satellite cloud top temperatures and national weather service soundings. We found a cloud shield with a temperature ≤ 221 K size and size less than 30,000 km2 at the mature stage of the MCS. Low moisture convection was unstable prior to MCS development. The warm moist air at 500–400 hPa could contribute to heavy rainfall above GJ. We suspect that the strong low-level convergence winds pro-duced an updraft, and high moist air led to a developing convective cloud. Themoist atmosphere on the third MCS was not always higher than others, but wind was low. These conditions caused the high intensity of heavy rainfall that oc-curred in GJ on the third MCS.