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All Journal AKSIOMA: Jurnal Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika Journal of Natural Sciences and Mathematics Research Desimal: Jurnal Matematika BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Jurnal Matematika UNAND Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika Al Qalasadi Bulletin of Applied Mathematics and Mathematics Education MANGGALI
Dinni Rahma Oktaviani
Universitas Islam Negeri Walisongo Semarang
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Environmental Science Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Social Sciences Transportation

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Data assimilation for predicting the dynamics of acute respiratory infections using the ensemble Kalman filter Yolanda Norasia; Dinni Rahma Oktaviani; Aini Fitriyah; Devi Marita Putri
Bulletin of Applied Mathematics and Mathematics Education Vol. 6 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/bamme.v6i1.14695

Abstract

Acute respiratory infection (ARI) is one of the most pressing public health problems due to its high transmission rate and the potential to cause significant pressure on health services. This study applies the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method to predict the spread of ARI with a three-compartment population model, namely Susceptible (S), Exposed (E), and Infected (I). This study shows that the EnKF method can predict the spread of ARI well. The number of ensembles used affects the level of accuracy. The EnKF provides accurate predictions of the dynamics of ARI spread, making it relevant as a scientific basis in the formulation of data-based mitigation strategies. It can provide a scientific basis for policymakers to formulate accurate and measurable preventive measures.
Co-Authors Aini Fitriyah Ainun Esti Candra Amalina, Ijtihadi Kamilia Baehaqi Demanda, Kelvin Devi Marita Putri Habiburrohman, Muhammad Ijtihadi Kamilia Amalina Isnawati, Ayus Riana Kelvin Demanda Kurniawan, Prihadi Muhammad Habiburrohman Muhammad Habiburrohman Muhammad Habiburrohman Norasia, Yolanda Nugroho, Fiki Syaban Putri, Devi Marita Tafrikan, Mohamad Yulia Romadiastri