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All Journal Maspari Journal BERKALA SAINSTEK Jurnal Teknik Sipil dan Perencanaan Jurnal Teknik Pengairan: Journal of Water Resources Engineering Rekayasa Sipil REKAYASA Jurnal Rekayasa Sipil dan Lingkungan Journal of Applied Geospatial Information Teras Jurnal U Karst Jurnal Rekayasa Sipil Jurnal Riset Rekayasa Sipil Civilla : Jurnal Teknik Sipil Universitas Islam Lamongan Jurnal Teknika Journal of the Civil Engineering Forum Warta LPM Jurnal Riset Teknik Sipil dan Sains
Retno Utami Agung Wiyono
Jurusan Teknik Sipil, Fakultas Teknik, Universitas Jember
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Environmental Science Health Professions Immunology & microbiology Mathematics Physics Social Sciences Transportation

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Journal : journal of the civil engineering forum

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Mapping the Lava Flood Hazard Using the Flood Discharge Approach and 2D Hydrodynamic Modeling at the Rejali River, Mount Semeru Prawira, Akbar Bagus; Hidayah, Entin; Wiyono, Retno Utami Agung
Journal of the Civil Engineering Forum Vol. 10 No. 2 (May 2024)
Publisher : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Gadjah Mada

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22146/jcef.8463

Abstract

In December 2021, Mount Semeru experienced an eruption accompanied by extreme rainfall, which resulted in lava floods, known as lahars or debris flows. The lava flood destroyed infrastructure, resulting in loss of life. Various rivers surrounding Mount Semeru, including the Rejali River, experienced the effects of this phenomenon. To address this, a study is needed to analyze the occurrence and frequency of lava floods over specific time intervals through the creation of a hazard map. This study aims to map the hazard of lava floods for various return periods using a coupled HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS software alongside a lava flood discharge approach. The HEC-HMS software is used to simulate hydrological processes, to obtain the lava flood discharge, while the HEC-RAS is used to model a two-dimensional (2D) lava flood hazard map. The input parameters of the modeling in this study are rainfall intensity, soil type, land cover, river distance, slope, and elevation. The results show that the flood area covers 9.55% of the total study area by 2 year return period (Q2), 11.80% by Q10, 14.10% by Q50, and 15.72% by Q200 with an overall validation Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0.16. These changes are determined by the discharge volume from each return phase and the river's shallow depth, which causes overflow beyond the river's ability to accommodate the flow. Thus, this study suggests that the models successfully generated a reliable model for mapping the risk of lava floods on the Rejali River. These findings can help the government reduce disaster losses through adequate adaptation and mitigation initiatives.
Assessment of Climate Change Impact for Water Scarcity in Semajid Watershed, Pamekasan, East Java Halik, Gusfan; Priyanto, Agil; Wiyono, Retno Utami Agung
Journal of the Civil Engineering Forum Vol. 12 No. 2 (May 2026)
Publisher : Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Gadjah Mada

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22146/jcef.18841

Abstract

The increase in global temperature has caused climate change, resulting in changes in the distribution of rainfall patterns, seasonal shifts, changes in water availability, and water scarcity. At present, water scarcity in Semajid watershed in Pamekasan Regency is increasing with climate change. Water scarcity will be increasingly difficult to predict due to highly complex dynamics of atmospheric circulation and local climate phenomena such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This research aims to develop an assessment model to evaluate the impact of climate change on water scarcity using the Semajid watershed of Pamekasan Regency as a case study. The prediction of water scarcity is based on atmospheric circulation dynamics data from the General Circulation Model (GCM-MIROC5) under different climate change scenarios namely Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). A statistical downscaling model was developed to overcome the limited resolution of the GCM output. The rainfall prediction model was developed using a deep learning-based downscaling model i.e. Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM), while streamflow or water availability prediction was conducted using the Soil Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) model. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Water Scarcity Index (WSI) were used to assess water scarcity. The results showed that the LSTM-based downscaling model provided satisfactory rainfall predictions under different climate change scenarios (RCP) with a reliability average of R2 = 0.741. The SWAT model results also provided satisfactory predictions of water availability with an average reliability of R2 = 0.668. The assessment of water scarcity using SPI and WSI indices showed that water scarcity ranged from moderate to high levels and coincided with the occurrence of El Niño events. Overall, this study demonstrates that the integration an LSTM-based rainfall downscaling model and the SWAT hydrological model can be used as an effective tool to predict water scarcity in the Semajid watershed.
Co-Authors Abdur Rohman Adden Ramadhan Syarif Ardi Ageng Dwi Wicaksono Agil Priyanto Akbar, Sabda Alam Aldio Dhiva Pratama Cahyani, Hajar Crisia Entin Hidayah Fahir Hassan Faillasuf, Vide Mirza Faradella, Maulida Gusfan Halik Hajar Crisia Cahyani Hery Budi Sulaksono Hilma Wasilah Robbani Imanda, Regita Ramadhani Indra Nurtjahjaningtyas Joseph Dwi Kurniawan Manno Malini, Citra Meta Fitri Rizkiana Narulita, Norma Aulia Ningsih, Alfiati Nur Alif Ryanto Pebriyanti, Fista Prakoso, Tara Adi Pratama, Munawir Prawira, Akbar Bagus Prihartami, Sabrina Putra, Victorius Setiaji Putri, Fidyasari Kusuma Ratih, Masita Risqi Sofiana Saifurridzal Sofiana, Risqi Suparno Suparno Vanadani Pranantya Wei Koon Lee Windy Bana Alam Perkasa Wiwik Yunarni Widiarti