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All Journal Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan TELKOMNIKA (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control) JAM : Jurnal Aplikasi Manajemen JIET (Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Terapan) JOHME: Journal of Holistic Mathematics Education International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics JMBI UNSRAT (Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Bisnis dan Inovasi Universitas Sam Ratulangi) FaST : Jurnal Sains dan Teknologi Jurnal ULTIMA InfoSys Penentuan harga obligasi dan teori tingkat bunga Milestone: Journal of Strategic Management Prosiding Konferensi Nasional PKM-CSR Proceeding National Conference Business, Management, and Accounting (NCBMA)
Ferdinand, Ferry Vincenttius
Universitas Pelita Harapan
Aerospace Engineering Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Automotive Engineering Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Mathematics Nursing Public Health Social Sciences

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Journal : Milestone: Journal of Strategic Management

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The Impact of Inflation and Interest Rates on Economic Growth in Southeast Asia: A Panel Data Analysis Samuel Eka Nathaniel; Bella Christine Princess Wantah; Zefanya Maureen Nathania; Michelle Angelique Nataputra; Ferdinand, Ferry Vincenttius
Milestone: Journal of Strategic Management Vol 5. No. 2 September 2025
Publisher : Universitas Pelita Harapan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.19166/ms.v5i2.9857

Abstract

Economic growth in Southeast Asia is influenced by a variety of macroeconomic variables, with inflation and interest rates being two of the most crucial. This study aims to examine the impact of inflation and interest rates on the economic growth (measured by GDP) of ten Southeast Asian countries from 2007 to 2023. Using a panel data regression approach, the analysis applies several econometric models including Pooled OLS, Fixed Effects Model, Random Effects Model, and spatial econometric models (Spatial Autoregressive Model/SAR and Spatial Error Model/SEM) to determine the most suitable model for the data. The results show that interest rates have a significant negative effect on GDP growth, suggesting that higher interest rates tend to reduce economic activity in the region. Inflation, while showing a weaker relationship, also negatively affects GDP in most models. Spatial analysis further reveals the presence of spatial dependence among Southeast Asia countries, indicating that the economic performance of one country is not isolated but affected by its neighbors. Among the models tested, the Spatial Error Model (SEM) is found to be the best fit based on statistical criteria, highlighting the importance of unobserved regional factors and spatial spillover effects. Policy implications include the need for coordinated regional monetary policies, maintaining inflation within manageable limits, and enhancing economic cooperation among Southeast Asia nations. While the R-squared values are relatively low, the statistical significance of the core variables underscores their relevance. This study contributes to the broader understanding of macroeconomic management and regional economic integration in Southeast Asia.
Co-Authors Asan, Sucipto Bella Christine Princess Wantah Buntaran, Carmen Ibanez Indrawati Chandrasukmana, Yohan Christian, Jonathan Darmawan, Matthew Axel Dominique, Nancy Nikentary Friska Natalia Friska Natalia Ferdinand Gabriella Grace Tanubrata Gracia S Ugut Haryani, Calandra Alencia Hery Hery Hulu, Edison I Made Murwantara Iyvon Herliawan Jonathan Christian Kie Van Ivanky Saputra Margaretha, Helena Michelle Angelique Nataputra Nurhanifah, Ameilia Panjaitan, Andry M. Ririn Ikana Desanti Roy Sembel Sambow, William Samuel Samuel Eka Nathaniel Samuel Lukas Selvi Esther Suwu, Selvi Esther Shannen Surya Wibisono Sung Suk Kim Tanubrata, Nicholas Andrew Timothy Sean Muliadiredja Widjaja, Andree E. Yustinus Soelistio Zefanya Maureen Nathania