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All Journal Pythagoras: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Jurnal Ilmu Dasar Kontinu: Jurnal Penelitian Didaktik Matematika Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer Indonesian Journal of Applied Statistics Journal of Mathematics and Mathematics Education (JMME) BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Business Innovation and Entrepreneurship Journal TIN: TERAPAN INFORMATIKA NUSANTARA Journal of Applied Data Sciences Jurnal Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat Journal of Informatics Management and Information Technology Konstelasi: Konvergensi Teknologi dan Sistem Informasi Prosiding Konferensi Nasional Penelitian Matematika dan Pembelajarannya Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Prosiding Simposium Nasional Multidisiplin (SinaMu) International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics-IJCSAM
Zukhronah, Etik
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Forecasting of Indonesian Crude Prices using ARIMA and Hybrid TSR-ARIMA Etik Zukhronah; Winita Sulandari; Sri Subanti; Isnandar Slamet; Sugiyanto Sugiyanto; Irwan Susanto
(IJCSAM) International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics Vol. 10 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : LPPM Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/j24775401.ijcsam.v10i2.4563

Abstract

Forecasting of Indonesian crude prices (ICP) is crucial for the government and policymakers. It helps them develop appropriate economic policies, budget allocations, and energy strategies. Forecasting methods that can be used are Time Series Regression (TSR) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). This study aims to forecast ICP using ARIMA and hybrid TSR-ARIMA models. The data used in this study is the ICP per month, from January 2017 to November 2022. The data is divided into two groups, the data from January 2017 to December 2020 is used as training data, and the data from January 2021 to November 2022 is used as testing data. The MAPE values for the testing data of the TSR-ARIMA(2,1,0) and ARIMA(2,1,0) models are 8.24% and 17.37% respectively. Based on this, it can be concluded that the TSR-ARIMA(2,1,0) model is better than the ARIMA(2,1,0) model for forecasting ICP.
Co-Authors Adi Wicaksono, Nanda Adigama Tri Nugraha Agung Setyabudi, Arriza Aji Susanto Aprilia, Nabila Churin Aryani, Fadhilatul Nida Atika Amalia Brilianto, Maximilianus Noel Dewi Retnosari Dina Rohmah Dyah Auliya Agustina Effendi, Arfiyansyah Rizki Fhadilla, Nahdatul Fransisca Trisnani Ardikha Putri Handajani, Sri Sulistijowati Hidayah, Nurrul Hizkia Yotant Pradana Husna Afanyn Khoirunissa Ilahi, Esa Permata Sari Putri Indra Raditya , Dionisius Irwan Susanto Isnaini, Bayutama Isnandar Slamet Isnandar Slamet Isnandar Slamet Isnandar Slamet Isnandar Slamet, Isnandar Kadar, Jimmy Abdel Kusuma, Erin Jihan Wahyu Martina Hilda Melati Anggiasari Muhammad Zidni Subarkah Nabila Churin Aprilia Nafi'udin, Fauzi Nugraha, Titis Jati Pardede, Hilman Ferdinandus pratiwi, hasih Pratiwi, Hasih S Sugiyanto Solikhah Novita Intan Sri Subanti Sri Sulistijowati Handajani Sugianto Sugianto Sugiyanto - Sugiyanto Sugiyanto Sugiyanto Sugiyanto Sugiyanto Sugiyanto Sugiyanto, Sugiyanto Sulandari, Winita Supriyadi Wibowo Susilotomoa, Dhestahendra Citra Tito Tatag Prakoso Winita Sulandari Winita Sulandari Winita Sulandari Yuliana Susanti Yuliana Susanti, Yuliana Yulvia Fitri Rahmawati