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All Journal Jurnal Fisika Unand JURNAL METEOROLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Jurnal Teknik Silitek Jurnal Material dan Energi Indonesia Jurnal Meteorologi dan Geofisika BULETIN FISIKA
Aditya Mulya
Sekolah Tinggi Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika
Astronomy Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Earth & Planetary Sciences Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Medicine & Pharmacology Physics

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Penentuan Jadwal Tanam Padi Berdasarkan Skenario Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 periode 2021-2040 Aditya Mulya; Novia Dewi Ismawardani; Mulyono Rahadi Prabowo; Nuryadi Nuryadi; Munawar Munawar
Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika Vol 8, No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26555/konvergensi.v0i0.22160

Abstract

Bali merupakan daerah beriklim tropis yang juga rentan terhadap dampak perubahan iklim. Perubahan iklim menyebabkan kemarau panjang sehingga banyak sawah di Provinsi Bali mengalami kekurangan air dan gagal panen. Upaya adaptasi dan mitigasi jangka panjang terhadap perubahan iklim diperlukan untuk mencegah dampak negatif tersebut. Salah satu upaya pencegahan dengan membuat informasi mengenai ketersediaan air tanah bagi tanaman serta memberikan gambaran jadwal tanam yang sesuai dengan kondisi iklim di masa yang akan datang. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 merupakan skenario yang menggambarkan perubahan iklim di masa mendatang. Tujuan dalam penelitian ini untuk mengetahui perubahan jadwal tanam padi Provinsi Bali berdasarkan skenario RCP 4.5 dengan model MIROC 5. Data model yang digunakan berisi data parameter suhu udara dan curah hujan periode 2006-2040. Data observasi yang digunakan adalah data curah hujan dan suhu udara periode 1991-2010 serta data ketinggian. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa di wilayah Bali bagian tengah, pada periode proyeksi 2021-2030 terjadi peningkatan ketersediaan air tanah sehingga jadwal tanam dimulai lebih awal dari periode 1991-2010 yaitu dari Oktober menjadi September. Sedangkan pada periode proyeksi 2031-2040, tingkat ketersediaan air tanah hampir sama dengan periode 1991-2010, sehingga jadwal tanam pertama kembali dimulai pada bulan Oktober
Utilisation of Weather Radar, Satellites, and ECMWF Models in Analysing Atmospheric Conditions during Hail Events (Case Study: Hail in Depok City on 28 October 2024) Pertiwi Risky Setyowatri; Muhizzadin Abdul Adzan; Ogi Rahmawan Adi Saputro; Achmad Zakir; Aditya Mulya
BULETIN FISIKA Vol. 27 No. 2 (2026): BULETIN FISIKA
Publisher : Departement of Physics Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, and Institute of Research and Community Services Udayana University, Kampus Bukit Jimbaran Badung Bali

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/BF.2026.v27.i06

Abstract

Hail is precipitation in the form of ice particles that form from the tops of intense convective clouds and fall to the surface before they have time to melt. Hail is relatively rare in tropical regions compared to rainfall, but it has the potential to cause damage to property and infrastructure. This study aims to analyze the atmospheric processes involved in the hail that occurred in Depok on October 28, 2024, using a multi-instrument approach based on weather radar, Himawari-9 RGB day microphysics satellite imagery, and ECMWF model data. The results show the development of cumulonimbus (Cb) clouds with reflectivity >55 dBZ at 08:18 UTC in the Bojong Pondok Terong and Kalimulya sub-districts and at 08:42 UTC in the Pancoran Mas sub-district. There was the emergence of weak echo region and overhang echo structures indicating strong updrafts, VIL values >20 mm, and a probability of hail (ZHAIL) >80%. RGB day microphysics confirmed the presence of cold, thick, and intense Cb clouds in Depok through the dominance of orange-red colors and indications of overshooting tops at 08:20 - 08:50 UTC. In addition, ECMWF shows high humidity at the 980 - 590 mb layer and a vertical velocity pattern that supports updrafts to the formation of downdrafts carrying hail. These findings are expected to enrich the comprehensive understanding of the hail phenomenon in Indonesia and to add much-needed historical records to improve operational threshold determination, thereby producing more accurate predictions and strengthening future mitigation efforts.
Co-Authors Achmad Zakir Ahmad Dzakiyyurayhan Huda Aries Kristianto Eriska Febriati Estri Diniyati M Jodi Pratama Mari Frystine Mawar Jihan Meldisa Putri Maulidyah MUHAMMAD IKO SAFRILDA MAULANA Muhizzadin Abdul Adzan Mulyono Rahadi Prabowo Munawar Munawar Novia Dewi Ismawardani Nuryadi Nuryadi Ogi Rahmawan Adi Saputro Pertiwi Risky Setyowatri Rezky Fajar Maulana