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Analysis of Projected Temperature Changes in Aceh Province Ilhamsyah, Yopi; Rahmy, Yustya; Marwan, Marwan; Kadarsah, Kadarsah
POSITRON Vol 13, No 2 (2023): Vol. 13 No. 2 Edition
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Univetsitas Tanjungpura

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26418/positron.v13i2.60389

Abstract

The objective is to analyse temperature changes and their future projection in Aceh. The activities consist of collecting past and future temperature data, preparing materials for processing, and analyzing past and future temperature data (climate change projections). The data used are monthly average temperature data from data global climate model, e.g., csiromk3.6-hist-1986-2005-tas, csiromk3.6-rcp45- 2016-2035-tas, csiromk3.6-rcp45-2046-2065-tas, csiromk3.6-rcp45-2081-2100- tas, csiromk3.6-rcp85-2016-2035-tas, csiromk3.6-rcp85-2046-2065-tas, and csiromk3.6-rcp85-2081-2100-tas. The study began with reading climate data in NetCDF format using GRADS software, data processing using CDO software, providing a coordinate system using QGIS software, making climate change projection maps using ArcGIS software, and making climate change graphs using spreadsheet programs. Two scenarios, i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are used to analyse the projected temperature changes in the short-term (2016 – 2035), medium-term (2046-2065), and long-term (2081-2100). The results show that the RCP4.5 projection shows a lower change in temperature rise than the RCP 8.5. A change in a temperature rise of up to 5°C was found in the RCP8.5 scenario.
Evaluation of GSMaP Rainfall Data in the Aceh Region Sahlan, Muhammad; Ilhamsyah, Yopi; Fadli, Muhammad; Masrurah, Zakia
Journal of Climate Change Society Vol. 2 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/jccs/Vol2-iss1/21

Abstract

Rainfall measurement data in the field is quite limited, however, satellite data obtained by remote sensing methods are widely available. However, its accuracy must still be tested using observational rainfall data. The objective of this research was to validate GSMaP satellite estimated rainfall data with Automatic Rain Gauge (ARG) rainfall data at rain stations dispersed over Aceh Province's west-central region, as well as to identify the primary drivers for GSMaP data error. ARG and GSMaP data sources. A comparison of GSMaP data accuracy using a combination of Pearson and RMSE tests shows that GSMaP performance is very low in the dry and transition seasons and significantly better in the rainy season. GSMaP, on the other hand, is still unable to offer sufficient precise rainfall estimation data for each season. Meanwhile, a comparison by elevation shows that GSMaP data is not fully reliable.
The influences of sea surface temperatures on the rainfall onset in the west-south region of Aceh Dani, Anggun Arwulan; Ilhamsyah, Yopi; Purnawan, Syahrul
Depik Jurnal Ilmu Ilmu Perairan, Pesisir, dan Perikanan Vol 13, No 1 (2024): APRIL 2024
Publisher : Faculty of Marine and Fisheries, Universitas Syiah Kuala

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13170/depik.13.1.31181

Abstract

Rainfall variability is influenced by several annual global and regional phenomena including the influence of monsoons, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), La Nina, and local climates. Sea surface temperature is one of the elements that affect weather patterns in Indonesia. This is because sea surface temperature plays an important role in the evaporation process, thus affecting cloud formation and subsequently affecting rainfall. The purpose of this study was to obtain information about the effect of sea surface temperatures on the onset in the Southwest Aceh region. The method used in this study is the correlation method between sea surface temperature anomalies (SST) and rainfall. The results of this study show that rainfall in the West-South region of Aceh varies greatly and has an equatorial pattern. The equatorial pattern is characterized by a rainfall type with a bimodal shape or there are two rain peaks during the year, namely around March and October. A positive anomaly in the West-South region of Aceh indicated that the rainfall at that time was higher than normal. Meanwhile, negative anomalies indicate that rainfall in the region is lower than normal conditions. The beginning of the average rainy season that occurs in the Southwest Aceh region starts on the 25th which occurs in September and ends until February. The beginning average rainy season that occurs in the West-South region of Aceh, starts on the 25th basis which occurs in September, and ends until February. The highest onset occurred in the Southwest Aceh area, which was 0,2059, and the beginning of the lowest rainy season or regression occurred in the West Aceh area, which was 0,0122.Keywords:Sea surface temperatureRainfallWest-South AcehCorrelation
The influences of sea surface temperatures on the rainfall onset in the west-south region of Aceh Dani, Anggun Arwulan; Ilhamsyah, Yopi; Purnawan, Syahrul
Depik Jurnal Ilmu Ilmu Perairan, Pesisir, dan Perikanan Vol 13, No 1 (2024): APRIL 2024
Publisher : Faculty of Marine and Fisheries, Universitas Syiah Kuala

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13170/depik.13.1.31181

Abstract

Rainfall variability is influenced by several annual global and regional phenomena including the influence of monsoons, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), La Nina, and local climates. Sea surface temperature is one of the elements that affect weather patterns in Indonesia. This is because sea surface temperature plays an important role in the evaporation process, thus affecting cloud formation and subsequently affecting rainfall. The purpose of this study was to obtain information about the effect of sea surface temperatures on the onset in the Southwest Aceh region. The method used in this study is the correlation method between sea surface temperature anomalies (SST) and rainfall. The results of this study show that rainfall in the West-South region of Aceh varies greatly and has an equatorial pattern. The equatorial pattern is characterized by a rainfall type with a bimodal shape or there are two rain peaks during the year, namely around March and October. A positive anomaly in the West-South region of Aceh indicated that the rainfall at that time was higher than normal. Meanwhile, negative anomalies indicate that rainfall in the region is lower than normal conditions. The beginning of the average rainy season that occurs in the Southwest Aceh region starts on the 25th which occurs in September and ends until February. The beginning average rainy season that occurs in the West-South region of Aceh, starts on the 25th basis which occurs in September, and ends until February. The highest onset occurred in the Southwest Aceh area, which was 0,2059, and the beginning of the lowest rainy season or regression occurred in the West Aceh area, which was 0,0122.Keywords:Sea surface temperatureRainfallWest-South AcehCorrelation
PENGARUH SUHU MUKA LAUT TERHADAP AWAL MASUK MUSIM HUJAN DI WILAYAH UTARA-TIMUR ACEH Ilhamsyah, Yopi; Mahera, Ulfa; Oktavina, Citra
Jurnal Lingkungan Almuslim Vol 2 No 2 (2023): Jurnal Lingkungan Almuslim
Publisher : Program Studi Magister Pengelolaan Sumberdaya Alam dan Lingkungan Universitas Almuslim

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.51179/jla.v2i2.2110

Abstract

Aceh is a province located in the westernmost part of the Indonesian archipelago and surrounded by waters, located in a tropical area that receives the most solar radiation. The condition of the Aceh region which is mountainous and has valleys results in different and varied rainfall patterns. The sea is a more important role than the land in the process of rain. Where some have concluded that sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall have a relationship. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct research on the relationship between SST and the onset of the rainy season and the characteristics of rainfall in the North- East region of Aceh. The purpose of this research study is to obtain information on the effect of SST and rainfall in the North-East region of Aceh. The method used in this research is correlation analysis. Based on the results of data analysis in the North-East region of Aceh, the rainfall pattern in the North-Eastern region of Aceh is monsoon type with little influence from the equatorial. The correlation between rainfall and SST anomalies shows different values in each region. The results of the correlation analysis of the onset, the highest occurred in the Banda Aceh with a value of 0,1495 which occurred in the 25th dekad and the length of the rainy season lasted for the 12th dekad. Meanwhile, the lowest occurred in East Aceh district, i.e., 0,0278 which occurred in the 24th dekad with the length of the rainy season last for 13 dekad.
The Urgency of Integrating Local Wisdom and Disaster-Resilient Character in the Merdeka Curriculum through the Disaster-Safe Education Unit Susilawati, Susilawati; Sofyan, Hizir; Ilhamsyah, Yopi; Ridha, Syahrul
Geosfera Indonesia Vol. 9 No. 3 (2024): GEOSFERA INDONESIA
Publisher : Department of Geography Education, University of Jember, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.19184/geosi.v9i3.43238

Abstract

Disasters can occur at unpredictable times; therefore, an appropriate disaster mitigation is needed. This research question is about how to integrate local wisdom and disaster resilience in the Merdeka Curriculum through a disaster-safe education program unit. Therefore, this study aims to reveal the importance of this integration. Questionnaires were distributed via Google Forms to all teachers in Aceh and several other regions in Indonesia, such as vocational school teachers in Kalimantan. A total of 144 teachers were respondents in this research. In addition, data was collected through the study literature review (SLR) method. The results of this study are (1) the value of local wisdom needs to be integrated into learning in the Merdeka curriculum to improve disaster resilience, (2) the Project Strengthening Pancasila Profile in the Merdeka Curriculum can support the integration of local cultural values and the character of disaster resilience, (3) the program The Disaster Safe Education Unit has an important role in disaster risk reduction. Therefore, stakeholders, the community, and the government need to pay attention to this condition to create students and communities who have a disaster-resilient character.
Determination of Water Quality Status using the Seawater Pollution Index Method in Eastern Sabang City : Penentuan Status Mutu Perairan dengan Metode Indeks Pencemaran Air Laut di Timur Kota Sabang Fadli, Mufthi; Setiawan, Ichsan; Ilhamsyah, Yopi; Yuni, Syarifah Meurah; Puspa, Yessi Andriani; Lifriza, Lifriza
Jurnal Teknologi Lingkungan Vol. 27 No. 1 (2026): Jurnal Teknologi Lingkungan
Publisher : BRIN Publishing (Penerbit BRIN)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Abstrak Pemantauan kualitas perairan merupakan hal yang penting untuk dilakukan, khususnya di perairan pesisir yang umumnya rentan terhadap pencamaran perairan. Wilayah Kota Sabang merupakan kawasan yang potensial dikembangkan untuk sektor pariwisata. Dengan tingginya rumah tangga perikanan dan adanya aktivitas antropogenik dikhawatirkan dapat menurunkan kualitas perairan di wilayah timur Kota Sabang. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengevaluasi kondisi perairan laut terhadap aktivitas wisata bahari di Pantai Timur Kota Sabang dengan menggunakan metode indeks pencemaran dari tahun 2020 sampai 2022 di Mata Ie Resort dan Sumur Tiga. Metode penganalisisan dilakukan dengan indeks pencemaran menggunakan data sekunder dari DLHK Kota Sabang dengan data musim kemarau dari tahun 2020 sampai 2022. Hasil analisis pengukuran parameter fisika, kimia, dan biologi didapatkan bahwa karakteristik ketercemaran air pada tahun 2020 di Sumur Tiga tercemar sedang (5,1) dan di Mata Ie Resort tercemar sedang (5,3); pada tahun 2021 di Sumur Tiga tercemar ringan (4,9) dan di Mata Ie Resort tercemar ringan (4,3); dan 2022 di Sumur Tiga tercemar sedang (5,1) dan di Mata Ie Resort tercemar ringan (4,8). Perairan yang memiliki nilai di atas ambang batas baku mutu yang telah ditetapkan tidak hanya membahayakan kehidupan biota dan lingkungan laut, tetapi juga dapat membahayakan kesehatan manusia, serta dapat merugikan secara sosial ekonomi. Secara keseluruhan pemantauan kualitas perairan perlu dilakukan secara terus menerus di Perairan Timur Kota Sabang agar kondisi lingkungan perairannya tetap terjaga sehingga tidak berdampak buruk pada wisatawan yang berkunjung dan melakukan aktivitas wisata bahari.   Abstract Water quality monitoring is essential, especially in coastal waters, which are generally vulnerable to water pollution. Sabang City is a potential area for development in the fisheries sector. With the high number of fishing households and anthropogenic activities, it is feared that they can reduce water quality in the eastern region of Sabang City. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the condition of marine waters for marine tourism activities on the east coast of Sabang City using the pollution index method from 2020 to 2022 at Mata Ie Resort and Sumur Tiga. The analysis method uses the Pollution Index, secondary data from DLHK Sabang City, and dry season data from 2020 to 2022. The results of the analysis of measurements of physical, chemical and biological parameters showed that the characteristics of water pollution in 2020 in Sumur Tiga were moderately polluted (5.1) and in Mata Ie Resort were moderately polluted (5.3); in 2021 in Sumur Tiga were lightly polluted (4.9) and in Mata Ie Resort were lightly polluted (4.3); and 2022 in Sumur Tiga were moderately polluted (5.1) and in Mata Ie Resort were lightly polluted (4.8). Waters that have values above the predetermined quality standard threshold not only endanger the life of biota and the marine environment, but can also endanger human health and be detrimental socio-economically. Overall, the water quality of the eastern waters of Sabang City needs to be monitored to maintain the environmental conditions for sustainable marine tourism activities
Application of a Levenberg–Marquardt-Based Backpropagation Neural Network for Rainfall Prediction Using a Single Weather Station Sukmananda, Wahyu; Irwandi; Iswardy, Edwar; Kadarsah; Ilhamsyah, Yopi; Away, Yuwaldi; Chotamongsak, Chakrit; Ardana, Dedy
Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA Vol 12 No 2 (2026): In Progress
Publisher : Postgraduate, University of Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/jppipa.v12i2.13845

Abstract

This study aims to develop an accurate monthly rainfall prediction model for Sabang City, Indonesia, to support agriculture, disaster mitigation, and water resource management in coastal regions with complex climatic conditions. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) trained using the Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) algorithm was employed, combining the Gradient Descent and the Gauss–Newton methods to enhance convergence speed and training stability. Meteorological data from 2015–2024, including temperature, humidity, air pressure, sunshine duration, wind direction, wind speed, and rainfall, were obtained from the Maimun Saleh Meteorological Station. Model performance was assessed using Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and the coefficient of determination (R²). The optimal architecture consisted of a single hidden layer with 25 neurons, producing an MSE of 955.84 mm², an RMSE of 30.91 mm, an MAE of 23.06 mm, a MAPE of 34.8%, and an R² of 0.93. These results indicate that the ANN-LM model effectively captures nonlinear climatic relationships and seasonal rainfall variability. The MAPE value falls within the acceptable range reported in forecasting literature, demonstrating practical reliability. Overall, the ANN-LM approach outperformed conventional backpropagation in accuracy and training efficiency, indicating its suitability for rainfall prediction in coastal areas.
The Urgency of Integrating Local Wisdom and Disaster-Resilient Character in the Merdeka Curriculum through the Disaster-Safe Education Unit Susilawati, Susilawati; Sofyan, Hizir; Ilhamsyah, Yopi; Ridha, Syahrul
Geosfera Indonesia Vol. 9 No. 3 (2024): GEOSFERA INDONESIA
Publisher : Department of Geography Education, University of Jember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.19184/geosi.v9i3.43238

Abstract

Disasters can occur at unpredictable times; therefore, an appropriate disaster mitigation is needed. This research question is about how to integrate local wisdom and disaster resilience in the Merdeka Curriculum through a disaster-safe education program unit. Therefore, this study aims to reveal the importance of this integration. Questionnaires were distributed via Google Forms to all teachers in Aceh and several other regions in Indonesia, such as vocational school teachers in Kalimantan. A total of 144 teachers were respondents in this research. In addition, data was collected through the study literature review (SLR) method. The results of this study are (1) the value of local wisdom needs to be integrated into learning in the Merdeka curriculum to improve disaster resilience, (2) the Project Strengthening Pancasila Profile in the Merdeka Curriculum can support the integration of local cultural values and the character of disaster resilience, (3) the program The Disaster Safe Education Unit has an important role in disaster risk reduction. Therefore, stakeholders, the community, and the government need to pay attention to this condition to create students and communities who have a disaster-resilient character.